China'S Textile And Clothing Needs To Expand Domestic Demand Under The US Financial Crisis Test

The expansion of the US financial crisis will be an important variable in the future world economic development, including China's textile and garment industry. With the deterioration of the environment, the impact is inevitable.

So, under the current circumstances, will China's textile and garment industry, which accounts for a considerable proportion of exports, be affected?

What will be the impact of the US financial crisis on the industry?

And what should we do?

To this end, we interviewed and integrated some experts and practitioners' viewpoints to discuss the development reality and Prospect of China's textile and apparel industry under the US financial crisis.

Moderator: in the US under the financial crisis, the unemployment rate is rising, and the whole crisis seems to have further pmission to other economies.

In your opinion, what will this impact on China's manufacturing and China's textile and garment industry?

Mei Xinyu: the turbulence of the financial sector in the United States will eventually intensify the credit crunch in the real economic sector. The turbulence of global financial institutions will directly impact the financial market and the real economic sectors of many countries, including the local textile industry.

China's export growth deceleration is mainly concentrated on traditional labor intensive enterprises, the most typical is the clothing industry.

Ma Wenfeng: the spread of the US financial crisis has two main impacts on China's textile industry: first, the proportion of the US share of the global market has shrunk; two, the global market has shrunk.

In October or November this year, China's textile exports will further slow down.

Xie Guozhong: the impact of China's manufacturing depends on several aspects. The first aspect is to see the US bailout policy. The US bailout is mainly through the Central Bank of the government to lend money to the financial system to maintain their survival. This will cause a substantial increase in the money supply, and the depreciation of the US dollar will also cause a substantial increase in oil prices.

The second aspect is to look at the demand side. In the United States, Japan or Europe, its demand will drop. We are export led economy. Although the impact of exports on the overall economy is lagging behind, it may not be felt for a while, but it will be felt after some time. So this is a very big economic downturn which will have a great impact on the whole world.

Tbob: the US dollar will be weak in the banking recession. Now it has become a huge handicap in the development of the world economy.

Because of the decline in US dollar, the purchasing power of American residents has dropped sharply, and the demand for products from China is weak. This is the first level impact.

This impact is enough to combat China's overall economic momentum.

At the same time, the stronger renminbi will surely raise the overall price level of China's exports to the United States, which will add to the worsening economic situation in China.

Keidel: I do not want this financial turmoil to hurt China. It is clear that the impact of this storm on China's trade will not be too great.

If every family in the world presents a slow or negative income growth, but they still want to buy clothes, toys, tools or kitchen gadgets, they are going to buy cheaper products, which are likely to come from China.

There is no doubt that the downturn will affect China's overall export volume, but I do not think it will be very serious.

He Fan: the most important point is the impact of the US slowdown on the export and growth of China's economy.

The decline in us GDP growth will not only directly affect China's exports, but will also affect other countries' economic growth, especially now that the global economy is slowing down. The economies of Europe and Japan are also worse than expected, which will affect China's exports.

The decline in exports may lead to a decline in GDP, investment and imports, and through these changes will affect China's economic growth.

The impact of the US slowdown on China is initially calculated by the researchers of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Academy of social sciences. If the US economic growth slows by 0.7 percentage points, China's economic growth will drop by 0.94 percentage points; if the US economic growth slows by 1.7 percentage points, China's economic growth will decline by 2.28 percentage points.

Guan Qingyou: the impact on imports and exports is indirect, and it may be more pessimistic after the expectation and confidence in the prospects. The situation of excess liquidity will be reversed.

Once liquidity is scarce, the problem is serious. Many enterprises can't get loans without affecting the export. "

Zhang Bin: we can understand the impact of this crisis on China from two aspects of exports and imports.

On the export side, under the impact of the financial crisis, the US economy is still likely to decline in the second half of the year, resulting in its continued decline in national consumption and consumption desire, and investment spending will increase. This is not a good news for China's foreign trade export.

If the consumption demand of American citizens is reduced, and the manufacturing industry will gradually recover from the increase in investment, it is bound to reduce the number of imports from China.

It can be expected that the external environment of China's macro-economy will be more severe because of the financial turmoil that swept through Wall Street.

The import and export data of the General Administration of Customs show that in the first 8 months of this year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports is slowing down obviously. As the United States is the largest export market for Chinese goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which once increased in 6-7 months, will be tested again. The decline in external demand means that foreign consumers' demand for high value-added products and low value added products will decrease at the same time.

Under such circumstances, exporters may not have the power to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of Chinese exporters.

In terms of imports, the policy of disadvantaged US dollars seems to have been recognized by the market in the short term, so that the cost of importing US dollar denominated commodities has increased greatly.

Host: does that mean that we are completely passive, and there is no good solution yet?

Mei Xin Yu: China's share in the cake of the world economy will be maintained. As long as this period is over, we can get more shares.

In addition, China's textile industry needs to expand domestic demand. In addition to the product's right way, the country also needs to increase its national income and reduce its housing prices, so that the purchasing power of residents consumed by housing expenditure can be shifted more to consumer goods.

Xie Guozhong: in this case, China's policy will also have a great impact, so this is a dilemma, that is, inflation and economic downturn, we must make a choice.

If you continue to rush ahead when the world economy is heading down, this will bring great risks.

Keidel: domestic demand will be the "stimulus" of China's economy. China's recent symbolic underground bank loan interest rate is a signal that the Chinese government is ready to promote domestic demand.

Trade in equipment technology and scarce resources will remain the focus, but this is only the basic support of the economy, rather than the usual "stimulus".

Guan Qingyou: Although our economy is slowing down now, this rate is still around 10%, and it is still a high growth. Therefore, we must make use of this opportunity to change the economic structure and pform the export oriented economy into an internal demand economy.