09 Global Footwear Consumption Market Demand Forecast

First, the US recession will lead to a serious decline in the import volume of goods, which will inevitably lead to a decline in its consumption. Secondly, the further depreciation of the US dollar will pose a threat to the world economy, which will impact the stability of the world trade and financial markets, resulting in a slowdown in global exports and investment growth. Third, the impact of international crude oil prices on the world economy is gradually increasing.

The slowdown and recession of the world economy will lead to intensified international trade protection and increased trade disputes.

At the same time, China also encountered 5 "337 investigations" in the United States, and the number of cases and the amount involved were greatly increased.

In 2008, the EU's footwear consumption capacity decreased by 10%, and in 2009 it will continue to decrease by 10%.

It can also be said that 5 years later, the enthusiasm for production in Europe will be severely compromised.

At the same time, accompanied by a sharp decline in population: by 2050, the population will be reduced to 300 million.

That is to say, the consumption of footwear products in the United States will be reduced by 20% over the previous period.

Similarly, Europe's footwear consumption will also decrease by 20% in 2009, under the influence of EU anti-dumping and inflation.

In addition, the extremely aging population and the negative growth rate of birth are also the direct cause of the decline in the consumption of the footwear industry in the United States.

The old people and some young fashion personages are different in their ideas, which makes the consumption of the footwear industry in the United States appear obvious imbalance.

According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China exported 305 billion 900 million US dollars in the third quarter of 2008, and its growth rate was 6.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

Given the sluggish growth in the US economy, the decline in China's export growth to the US will be difficult to reverse.

In the footwear consumer market, Asia accounts for 40% of the world's consumption of shoes, 17% of the United States, 16% of Western Europe and the rest of the world, 7% of Eastern Europe, and 4% of North America and other parts of Central America.

In China, nearly 2 billion 300 million pairs of shoes are consumed each year, which surpass 2 billion 200 million in the United States, ranking first in the world.

With the economic development of these countries, the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the increasing consumption ability and awareness, the growth of the consumption market of footwear products is enormous. These countries will be the most potential market for shoe products consumption, and also the most potential market for footwear products export.

At present, consumption per capita in Asia is about 1.2 pairs, according to the latest estimate of Swiss bank: by 2012, the average per capita consumption of shoes in Asia will reach 2 pairs.

With the continuous development of Asian countries' economy, the continuous increase of people's consuming ability and consciousness, and the substantial increase of rural consumption level, Asia will be the most potential target market for footwear export, and also the most potential market for footwear products.

In the next 10 years, the per capita consumption in Asia will break through 3 pairs, that is, the total consumption of about ten billion pairs. The strong potential of market consumption will effectively support the sustainable development of Asian footwear industry and fully open up the flourishing space of Asian footwear industry.

Especially in Europe and the United States, the world economic crisis has seriously affected their economic development and consumer market, resulting in a marked downward trend in their spending power. Although the Asian region has also been affected by the economic crisis, its consumption power has not declined, but on the contrary, it is still rising.

Especially in Asia, because of the support of manufacturing industry and the involvement of foreign brands and the rise of domestic brands, its consumption power is rising rapidly.

The vitality of China's consumer market is extremely strong. By 2009, it will become the most competitive market in the world shoe industry.

Therefore, by 2009, the consumption power of rural China will increase rapidly.

With the continuous development of social economy, the market capacity of footwear industry will increase steadily.

At the same time, with the gradual deepening of brand awareness, it is bound to form a brand ladder corresponding to the market. The consumer group has also expanded from the original city to the rural area, and the product has developed from low grade to middle and high grade.

The main factors contributing to the growth of consumption are:

In the first half of 2008, the per capita household income of urban residents in China reached 8060.93 yuan, and the disposable income per capita was 7708.47 yuan, an increase of 1175.8 yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 18%; the per capita consumption expenditure was 4963.69 yuan; the per capita cash income of rural households was 2350.69 yuan, an increase of 301.98 yuan, an increase of 14.74% over the same period last year.

The income of urban residents has maintained a relatively high level and is relatively stable, and the rural residents' incomes continue to rise, thanks to the rising prices of agricultural products.

In August 2008, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 21.9% compared with the same period last year; the wholesale and retail industry increased by 21.8% over the same period, while the accommodation and catering industry increased by 24.6%; and gold and silver jewellery, automobile, light industry, sports entertainment category and furniture and other products driven by consumption structure upgrading increased the growth rate year-on-year. Therefore, the continuous upgrading of consumption structure will be a continuous driving force for consumption growth.

The appreciation of the renminbi will weaken foreign demand, increase domestic supply, and at the same time lead to a decline in import prices, to a certain extent, stimulate consumption.

Through the analysis of the trend of the consumption market of the world footwear industry, we have come to the conclusion that the consumption market of the footwear industry in Europe and the United States has been saturated or declining, and the 2009 main battlefield of the world shoe industry consumption will shift from Asia to China, and China will become the main battlefield of the world shoe brand business in 2009.