Commentary: Real Estate Slump Fell Two Cities, Shanghai Index Fell 50 Points

Summary of the market

Financial sector website May 25th hearing today, the A share market was affected by factors such as yesterday's "no property tax in three years" and the sharp drop in US stocks. The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities both opened low. The volume of the real estate sector surged yesterday, with the whole sector returning to the top.

After 10:50 points, the market low level shock, lingering around 2640-2650.

Media stocks, gold shares, Shanghai local stocks and other small and medium-sized plate stocks are on the high side, and the medical and medical devices sector is in the top. Real estate, finance, coal, oil and other weight plates are still vulnerable.

At the end of the morning market, the stock market of the colored plates was rapidly pulled up, and the two cities once hit the bottom and rebounded.

Two cities in the afternoon fell again, real estate stocks set off second waves of slumping tide, Vanke, Jindi, investment real estate (000024), Poly Real Estate (600048) and so on fell more than 4%, the plate ranked first in the decline list.

Financial, coal, oil and other large plate weight plate to join the diving, the two cities are overwhelmed, the stock index once approached the 2600 point mark, then slightly pulled up.

Plate, the plate fell, only media, medicine, nonferrous metals, electronic devices and other sectors of the red, financial, real estate, coal, oil, steel and other weight plate vulnerable led.

Today, there are three positive information in the A share market. One is that the decline of the top 10 varieties is relatively limited, which means that the selling pressure is not big. Even though the real estate stocks are still in the top, the decline in the top stocks is not more than 5%.

The two is the relatively active trend of new shares, especially the nine of Jiu Jiu (002411) and other basic characteristics of the new stocks are significantly ahead, reflecting the market share mentality gradually optimistic.

The three is Guangsheng nonferrous metals (600259) and other rare earth material stocks explosion in the market, stimulating the market to do more.

At the close, the Shanghai stock index reported 2622.63 points, down 50.79 points, or 1.90%, and Shenzhen index reached 10365.22 points, or 254.91 points, or 2.40%.

In terms of industry news, domestic rumors of "no property tax in three years" is the main driving force for Monday's rebound.

Today, the rumors of "no property tax in three years" have been temporarily lost, and have triggered a sharp pullback in real estate stocks.

Shanghai will introduce a report on the collection of housing tax in the afternoon as a big inducement for dragging down real estate stocks in the afternoon. If Shanghai's real estate tax collection is true, it will have a huge impact on the real estate sector, such as a basin of ice water, which will extinguish the hot rebound enthusiasm of real estate stocks.

Affected by this, the real estate sector plummeted.

Market analysts said that in the disadvantaged market triggered by the relief package, coupled with the NDRC's denial of property tax in three years, rumors that the stock market rose, and the market's popularity fell sharply against yesterday's general inflation. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 10 day moving average. From the trend, there is a demand for re direction selection after returning to the moving average. The short-term direction is not clear. Investors should be cautious in the operation, and whether the rally is still over will remain to be observed in the future market.

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Two, important news analysis

(1) the property tax statement is "confusing" for a while.

From the national development and Reform Commission, the speech of the research and Development Committee of the development and Reform Commission's "no property tax in three years" does not represent the position of the development and Reform Commission.

Kong Jingyuan, director of the comprehensive reform department of the development and Reform Commission, did not make any comments on the real estate issue and interviewed the media.

For a time, various rumors about the property tax statement were "confusing", and investors seemed to be "unable to touch North".

Prior to that, the development and Reform Commission's Industrial Research Institute said that the property tax was not allowed in three years. Some newspapers reported on the theme of "3 years' property tax free from the development and Reform Commission's position," which has been widely circulated, triggering social doubts about the direction of the national real estate regulation and control policy.

In this regard, the director of the development and Reform Commission said that the speeches of the above-mentioned researchers did not represent the position of the development and Reform Commission.

The relevant departments of the development and Reform Commission said that the Industrial Research Institute is a research institution. The opinions expressed by its researchers can only be personal views, and do not represent the position of the development and Reform Commission.

The above remarks on "property tax" are seriously misleading, resulting in extremely bad effects.

The above media also reported on the real estate issue Kong Jingyuan, director of the comprehensive reform division of the development and Reform Commission's economic system.

Regarding this, the relevant departments of the development and Reform Commission said that the director of Kong Jingyuan did not accept this media interview.

[financial circles commenting]: the NDRC's "righteous words" refute rumours, it seems that the real estate sector will again be set up a "magic spell", and A shares rebound in the hurricane market is not a one-day tour also needs to continue to observe.

(two) domestic factors remain the most important consideration of monetary policy.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said on the second round of the Sino US strategic and economic dialogue press briefing that China is a big country with a population of 1 billion 300 million. In general, the key factors to consider monetary policy are domestic factors. International factors will also affect monetary policy decisions, but this effect is often less than domestic factors.

This has clearly indicated that in the current circumstances, domestic factors will remain the most important consideration when our central bank formulating monetary policy.

Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that the first thing to do is to maintain the health of financial institutions. Secondly, macroeconomic policies should be prudent and stable.

Third, the construction of financial infrastructure is also important.

Fourth, in addition to preventing blind actions and irrational actions in the financial market, China must further promote financial reform and promote financial innovation.

Because for China, we should strengthen financial innovation from the development stage.

[Financial commentating]: it is implied that the central bank will not act as a "considerate" response when it formulating policies in some aspects of monetary policy. It may also allow the US side to "retreat from difficulties" without having to be too obsessed with useless work.

(three) "Yangtze River Delta" regional planning or icing on the cake.

Recently, the State Council formally approved the implementation of the Yangtze River Delta Regional Planning (hereinafter referred to as the "planning"), the Yangtze River Delta region, including Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with an area of 210 thousand and 700 square kilometers.

At present, the Yangtze River Delta region is faced with heavy tasks of improving its capability of independent innovation, alleviating the constraints of resources and environment, and pushing ahead with reform and tackling key problems. It is in a critical period of pformation and upgrading.

In Xinjiang revitalization plan has made A shares rekindle "vitality", the "Yangtze River Delta" regional planning will be introduced to the current strong rebound in A shares with new impetus.

According to the plan, the strategic orientation of the development of the Yangtze River Delta region is: the important international gateway in the Asia Pacific region, the important modern service industry and the advanced manufacturing center in the world, and the world-class city group with strong international competitiveness.

The development goal is to take the lead in realizing the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2015, and strive to take the lead in realizing modernization basically by 2020.

The plan puts forward the development direction and key tasks of eight aspects: urban development and urban and rural co-ordination, industrial development and layout, independent innovation and innovative regional construction, infrastructure construction and layout, resource utilization and ecological environmental protection, social undertakings and public services, institutional reform and institutional innovation, opening up and cooperation, and clear policies and measures for ensuring the implementation of the plan.

[Financial commenting]: the revitalization of the Xinjiang region has not yet disappeared, and the revitalization plan for the Yangtze River Delta region is undoubtedly "icing on the cake" for the market which is not hot in the early days. Especially for the stock index that is rising in the channel, the introduction of the "Yangtze River Delta" plan is more like a "strong heart" or will help to create a new high rebound in the stock index.

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(four) President Hu promised or gave the United States a "reassurance".

President Hu Jintao said recently that China will continue to steadily push forward the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in accordance with the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism.

In the opening ceremony of the second round of China US strategic and Economic Dialogue held in the morning, Hu said that China will continue to pursue a win-win strategy of opening up, expand market access in accordance with the prevailing international economic and trade rules, support the improvement of the international trade and financial system, and facilitate the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment.

China will accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development, expand domestic demand and increase consumption, actively promote the healthy and balanced development of foreign trade, and oppose all forms of protectionism.

[Financial commendation]: President Hu's own promise or "reassurance" to the depressed American side is enough to show our government's sincerity to the economic and strategic dialogue between the two countries. However, in the view of researchers, the more important thing is to disrupt the negotiation Department of the other side so as to get good negotiation gains. After all, exchange rate reform is not trivial, and the principle of initiative, controllability and asymptotic appears to be more in line with our national interests.

(five) Greece's debt crisis is "hard to come by"?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said recently that Greece would not default on its debts and that there was no need for debt restructuring. There would be no debt default or debt restructuring.

We choose to repay the loan that needs to be repaid.

Greece's fiscal deficit accounted for 13.6% of GDP in 2009, and the ratio of public debt to GDP was 113%.

The EU's Convention on stability and growth stipulates that the annual fiscal deficit of the euro area member countries should not exceed 3% of GDP and the ratio of public debt to GDP should not exceed 60%.

[Financial commenting]: the Greek government has made such a statement. According to the current situation, the Greek debt crisis is hard to sustain by its government, or it has yet to be confirmed.

These crises will also give warning to our country's perfect financial system, and at the same time, it can also be used for reference. European countries are so targeted at these emergencies of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, thereby enhancing the domestic capital market's ability to withstand shocks.