2010/2011 Autumn Winter Conjecture Conjecture Industry N Degree Guess

The cold current in 2009 not only made people feel "unexpectedly cold", but also blew up the 2009.

1 degree effect

There is a so-called "1 degree effect" in the economic circles, that is, when the temperature changes 1 degrees Celsius, the sales volume of goods also changes greatly. In 2009, the 5~10 degree changed.

From 2006 onwards, the warm winter for many years has made the down jacket enterprises that have been watching the weather fall into the inventory crisis, and the sales growth for 3 consecutive years has declined.

But in 2009, the situation suddenly changed, and the cold wave came ahead of schedule, so that all brands entered the peak period of sales ahead of schedule.

In the past month, the local feather and down clothing enterprises borrowed this warm breeze and washed up the declining trend in the past few years.

At the same time, the major brands also increased significantly, Yalu rose 40%, Eral rose 50%.

Even some processing enterprises, including Nei conquer and cotton clothes, and some fashion brands have begun to grab the down jacket Market.

At the end of 2009, the words "who had not done feather down" began to circulate in 2006.

Although the market demand is huge, it is not the participants who have a great harvest.

According to China

As the market continues to grow, the number of corporate brands is decreasing.

In the face of this rise and fall of data, Jiang Hengjie, executive vice president of the China clothing association, has his own opinion: "after experiencing the rapid development of the 30 years of reform and opening up, through the baptism of the global financial crisis, the downsizing and integration of down garment enterprises and brands can be seen as an inevitable trend for the development of the industry.

This is not a sign of decadence. Instead, it will bring advantageous resources to dominant enterprises. "

Fashion breakthrough

As early as 2006 when the down jacket industry was frustrated, some enterprises began to look for the way to break through. By 2007, the "fashion" route has become a new trump card for many down garment enterprises.

According to the floor manager of a clothing market, consumers' experience of elegant quality in down coats has gradually become a symbol of style and taste.

With the constant innovation of the fabric and style of down garments, the improvement of the decoration styles and grades of the professional feather clothing brands in the stores also makes the shopping environment more comfortable.

At present, there are nearly 100 down garment enterprises in China.

For example, Bosideng's brand is ice cream, with young, fashion, vitality and affinity as the brand positioning, with "80" and "90 after" as the target consumer group; Eral's core positioning for leisure, fashion, nature, target consumer groups for 18~25 years old female consumption; Yalu takes fashion leisure as the core positioning, the target consumer group is 25~60 years old middle and high income working-class; even the duck duck that has always been positioned in the mature population has also played the fashion style brand, the target group is urban men and women......

The down fashion war broke out.

"I feel that showing China's fashion has always been the concern and expectation of many people.

Fashion is always a theme for Eral. "

At the end of 2009, in a dialogue with CCTV column, Chen Pin, President of Eral group, expressed his view on fashion.

"Breaking the rules is the only way to innovate. In fact, Eral is actually because at the very beginning, the whole Chinese down garment industry is very conservative, and the down jacket is overstaffed. With a little innovation, we will have this achievement today."

In 12 years, it has become a famous brand in China's down garment industry, and Eral has a set of rules of its own.

Nevertheless, what is fashion and how to grasp the fashion of consumer psychology is still a difficult problem for an enterprise to solve.

Gu Zhenhua, chairman of Yalu group, said that down and down clothing enterprises in 2007 and 2008 were still unable to accurately grasp the problem of the degree of fashion of down garments.

2010/2011 autumn winter conjecture

In the 2009 market, brands launched high-end products ranging from 2000 yuan to 9000 yuan.

In the past, competition between enterprises in homogenization and price war has changed into a rational market competition in order to enhance brand value, add value to products and guide high-quality consumption.

In 2010, to make the down jacket brand more dignified, Wei Po Lin, general manager of Beijing geo Garments Co., Ltd., spoke of the aspirations of many entrepreneurs.

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In the middle of 2010, how to get rid of the link between the climate and output in the down industry industry? How to avoid the dilemma caused by blindly following the trend and the industry out of control? How to strengthen the self-discipline of the industry, change the way of growth, and continuously change and innovate, all the entrepreneurs need to keep thinking in practice.

In Jiang Hengjie's view, the down garment industry needs to pay attention to the following problems: first, the enterprises face the changes of many factors, such as shortage of migrant workers, rising labor costs and rising prices of raw materials, and so on. Enterprises need to improve their efficiency through the use of scientific and technological level to increase the total labor productivity of enterprises. Secondly, enterprises need to integrate their industrial chains to speed up the turnover of their products and funds. Third, industrial production and distribution channels are closely cooperated with each other, and marketing is closely related to consumer demand; fourth, brand enterprises and franchisees establish closer interests and alliances, sharing risks and interests, and sharing common interests. Finally, enterprises should increase investment in R & D and extensive application of mature and high-tech enterprises.

During the national day of 2009, the south of the Yangtze River was very warm. Gao Dekang, chairman of Bosideng group, asserted in the media interview that in 2009, the whole industry will see more obvious stabilization and recovery.

Although the prediction at that time could not convince all of us, Gao Dekang also had his own reasons for his stabilization and recovery. In his view, China's down garment industry is undergoing adjustment period. Under the influence of multiple contradictions such as recession and development, adjustment and revitalization, it has experienced severe challenges in 2008, especially the rise of fashion down, and will usher in a new development period in 2009.

At this meeting, Gao Dekang once again published his forecast for the industry in 2010: in 2009, the sales situation was excellent, and the enterprises were prepared to increase their horsepower. In 2010, enterprises were more rational for development.

"The competitive advantage of the future market comes from the innovation capability of the enterprise.

To this end, enterprises should adhere to independent innovation, increase investment in design and research, and promote industrial upgrading; we must persist in building independent brands and enhance core competitiveness; we must also strengthen Specialized Committee's own construction, improve services and promote the development of industries.

As an industry leader, Gao Dekang said.