PTA Midline Is Weak At Five Points.

　　 7 since the middle of last month, PTA The main contract quickly fell below the 7000 line in the face of huge capital pressure, but then the market profits spread frequently, leading to a sustained rebound in the price, and the main capital gradually shifted 1101 positions.

I believe that the short-term PTA will show a stalemate trend, and do not rule out the possibility of a 7800 line on the main contract driven by related commodities. However, the central line, the market constraints still exist, the overall performance of PTA will remain weak, may continue the trend of oscillation in July.

First, the recovery of major economies is slowing down, and domestic policies will continue to be maintained.

Although the economic data of Britain and Germany are better than expected, the European economic recovery is showing strong momentum, but fiscal improvement in Europe will be a painful long-term process. In addition, judging from the results of the banking stress test, although the reason for not short selling the market in the short term, it also shows that the attitude of the European government to deal with the banking problem is to delay rather than solve problems in a big way, and the European economy still has a big hidden danger. The US side is weak in economic data, and the Fed has lowered its forecast for economic growth in the report. The slowdown in the US economic recovery has once again raised concerns about the market.

In China, the two quarter's economic data show that the effectiveness of the tightening policy is emerging, and the drop in economic and industrial data is more than expected. We expect short-term policy to maintain continuity.

From a macro level, international bulk commodity market The general trend of the second half of this year will be stable, and most varieties of energy, raw materials and other economic recovery will be suppressed, and the cautious oscillation market will continue in the future. In terms of energy chemicals, PTA is difficult to perform well in the medium and long term due to restrictions on crude oil products.

Two, hurricanes boost the oil market, and energy chemicals are expected to be supported.

The NYMEX crude oil price rebounded back to $71 / barrel in early July and rebounded again to a relatively sensitive 79 to 81 US dollars / barrel line. Judging from the recent rebound in the crude oil market, the change in the financial market is the leading factor in the rebound in crude oil price. But with US stocks reaching a relatively sensitive position, crude oil futures prices continue to rise more difficult. Another factor that boosted the market comes from uncertain hurricanes. According to the May forecast report of the National Hurricane research center of the United States, the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in the second half of the year are much greater than in previous years, and become the biggest disturbing factor in the crude oil market. According to the relevant data, after the tropical storm Bonnie was passed in July 26th, about 26.77% of the oil production and 9.65% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico were closed. Future hurricanes will still have a greater impact on US crude oil production.

We believe that in the three quarter, although the magnitude of the oil price increase is constrained by the macroeconomic slowdown, the hurricane factor is likely to boost the market once again. The oscillation of oil price between 70 - 90 US dollars / barrel will be a big probability event, thus forming a certain support for energy chemicals.

In the PTA industry chain, the rebound in crude oil prices has stabilized naphtha and PX prices. From the current difference between PX and MX and Shek Na oil price, up to 27 days were 120 US dollars / ton, 239 US dollars / ton respectively, and the profit of PX device began to improve. Market participants expect the price of shipments to rise in September, and it is expected that some PX producers with heterogeneous MX as raw materials will continue to purchase spot products in September and October to meet the contract supply. However, due to ample supply in the region, it still takes time to go to inventory, and the PX price in the future market is still hard to go up.

Three, PTA started high maintenance, inventory is still a problem.

According to CCF statistics, the average operating rate of PTA installations in July was 93.3%, which was 4 percentage points higher than that in June. According to relevant statistics, the output of domestic PTA in June was 1 million 280 thousand tons. If calculated according to the operating rate, it would be higher than that in July. In June, the import volume would be 467 thousand tons, and the ring ratio would increase again. Market surplus will continue to maintain a high level.

In terms of inventory, the current social inventory may exceed 1 million 500 thousand tons. However, from the operational level of polyester enterprises and traders, because polyester and PTA are in a rare bull market in history, the cash flow of enterprises is good, and the intention of going out of stock is not strong. From this perspective, inventory pressure is not a problem in the short term. However, from the operational level, the investment of polyester enterprises and PTA factories with better capital will be more likely to limit the long-term price of PTA.

In addition, although there will be several new polyester lines coming into operation in the future, its impact on the PTA market will be slow and gradual. At present, the quantity of the warehouse receipts is still huge. If the quantity of 200 thousand tons is absorbed by the polyester plant, it can maintain nearly ten sets of new polyester devices for a month, and the pressure can not be underestimated in the medium and long term.

Four, the downstream off-season is not light, the latter may slow down {page_break}

Although 6 to August was the traditional off-season for the terminal, due to the introduction of Zhejiang's power restriction policy, the downstream worries about the supply of polyester made the production and marketing of the market continue to be higher. From the polyester start up rate, the average running rate of the mainstream polyester plant in July was 81.4%, which was basically the same as in June. From the comprehensive profit of the device, the profit of polyester products has reached the highest level in recent years, and the market is showing a trend of not declining in the off-season. But from the current point of view, the market mentality has gradually become prudent. Although there is no inventory pressure in polyester factories, the volume of light textile city has dropped to below 4 million 500 thousand meters, and there is a sign of weakening in the downstream.

On the terminal side, although the export performance of textile and clothing was good in the first half of the year, there were many uncertainties in the later stage. The euro debt crisis triggered a sharp depreciation of the euro by 16%, while the industry's export orders to Europe are generally around 60 days, and the impact on exports will begin to emerge in the three and fourth quarter. In addition, the implementation of the new exchange reform system forced the RMB to show appreciation trend against the US dollar in the short term. Considering that the share of the textile and garment export trade in China is about 80% of the total, it will be settled in the US dollar. Therefore, the industry's export growth will slow down in the three or four quarter, due to the superposition of the recent RMB appreciation and the lagging of the debt crisis. According to our survey, most textile orders are already full in the three quarter. We maintain export growth in the two or three quarter is still over 10%, but the growth rate in the four quarter will decline.

Due to the weakening signs of downstream, terminal exports may also fall back, and the cost transmission capacity of polyester will be weakened, and the uplink space of PTA price may be suppressed.

Five. PTA Short line horizontal finishing, the center line will still be weak.

Overall, as the PTA continued to decline for 4 months, the price was short of action, and the market continued to rebound in a hazy and real good way. However, due to the higher operating rate of the refinery, the PX supply is relatively loose, while the PTA market still maintains high load and high import volume, and the social stock is still relatively high. Therefore, although the PTA main contract is driven by the big environment, there is still a possibility of exploring the 7800 line in the short term, but it has not reached the time window of the trend market. In the medium term, the market constraints will continue to exist, and the overall performance of PTA will remain weak, which may continue the oscillation market in July. Only when the operating rate of the plant is reduced, the inventory pressure is reduced, and the A share continues to rebound, will the PTA market really reverse.