Textile And Garment Export Growth In August Is Expected To Fall To Around 15%.

Reality is not as optimistic as figures.

"Some time ago we went on investigating once, and the export situation was not as good as we thought it would be.

Our concerns are in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year.

A customs official said.

Executive director

The above customs officers have analysed the growth of general trade and processing trade in the past 7 months.

He said that in terms of figures, the growth rate of exports under processing trade was significantly lower than that in general.

According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China's exports amounted to US $850 billion 490 million, an increase of 35.6%.

Among them, exports under general trade amounted to 390 billion 120 million US dollars, an increase of 38.3%, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of exports. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 629 billion 530 million US dollars, an increase of 36.1%.

Of which, exports amounted to 398 billion 410 million US dollars, an increase of 32.4%, which is lower than that of the same period.

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"Processing trade is more obvious than foreign demand, which means that the effective demand abroad is not as fast as imagined."

The customs officers said, "we believe that most of the orders are still in the replenishment stage."

"The growth rate of imports under processing trade is greater than that of exports, which means that the materials for enterprises to prepare for production in China are larger than those exported, and the growth of external demand has not reached the situation where the enterprises are optimistic.

Of course, there is a problem of production cycle. "

The customs officer said.

He also said that with the arrival of the inventory cycle of enterprises in important trading partners such as Europe and the United States, the demand for Chinese products by foreign enterprises may be further weakened.

On the other hand, Asian emerging market countries headed by India are ushering in a surge of interest rates, which is not good news for China's exports.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, analyzes the tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which will inevitably affect domestic demand and indirectly lead to a decline in China's exports.

From the internal environment, the pressure of medium and long term wage increases, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the profit margins of export enterprises are narrowed. The accumulation of a number of factors may have a greater impact on the growth rate of exports.

The impact of traditional industries on these factors is most sensitive. The export data of textile and garment industry in July have already been discerned.

In July, the export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 11.4% compared with 09, 08 and 17% in the 08 years. This means that the overall export growth has slowed down compared with the previous months.

First textile network editor Wang Cheng analysis, excluding the cardinal effect, the impact of weak external demand has begun to appear, textile export orders index continued to fall.

He said that from August, especially in the fourth quarter of this year, China's textile and clothing exports will enter a slowdown period.

It is estimated that the growth rate of textile and garment exports will drop to around 15% in August, while the growth rate in the first 8 months will remain at 20%.

"Generally speaking, the domestic and international environment is still very unstable, and the foreign trade policy in the second half of the year is still dominated by stability."

A Ministry of Commerce said, "since the 11th Five-Year" energy saving and emission reduction has entered the final months of the sprint stage, through various means to ensure that the completion of the task has become the resultant force of the ministries and commissions, the foreign trade policy involving high pollution and high energy consumption industries will be fine-tuning in the second half of the year. "

Fine-tuning mainly refers to export tax rebate policy and processing trade policy.

In June 22nd, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "notice on canceling the export tax rebates for some commodities". Since July 15th, the export tax rebates for 406 commodities have been abolished.

On this basis, the export tax rebate related to environmental protection may be further adjusted in the second half of this year.

On August 11th, Jiang Yaoping, Vice Minister of Commerce, said in public that in the second half of the year, the necessary tax rebate adjustments should be made to some industries with high energy consumption and high pollution in accordance with the national strategy for energy conservation and emission reduction.

One of the key points of the "pformation and upgrading plan for processing trade", which is being deliberated by the Ministry of Commerce, is energy saving and emission reduction. The way to restrict it is to adjust the customs codes of some resource intensive products and products with large carbon emissions from the catalogue of processing trade restriction to the catalogue of processing trade prohibition and stop categories.

The selection of hundreds of products is based on the notice issued by the State Development and Reform Commission, which was issued by the State Council late last year, to curb overcapacity in some industries.

"We mainly select some of these industries which have large export volume and restrict the primary products of some industries which have little impact on China's economy."

The Ministry of Commerce said, "it is expected to be launched in the second half of the year."