World Cotton Prices Have Risen To Their Highest Level Since 1995.

2010/10/11 10:01:00 33

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According to the report issued by the international cotton advisory board (ICAC) in October 1, 2010,

International cotton prices

It has been rising almost continuously since April 2009.

Prices have risen particularly since August 2010.

The Cotlook A index jumped to 115.60 cents / pound in September 29, 2010, an increase of 80% over the same period last year, the highest price since May 23, 1995.

The recent rise in cotton prices is mainly due to the strong fundamentals of the market.

Expect

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World cotton inventories decreased by 24% to 9 million tons in 2009/10.

It ended the 5 years of high inventory.

World cotton production is expected to rebound 16% to 25 million tons in 2010/11, benefiting from a marked rise in cotton prices last year.

The amount of the global cotton mill should continue to recover, but the recovery rate is far below 2009/10, because the supply of cotton is limited and fiber prices remain high.

2010/11 annual output and expected cotton consumption

Basic balance

The world's final inventory is not expected to grow substantially.

Pakistan's cotton production was delayed in August due to floods in August, and the cotton picking time in China and India was postponed. The main export countries restricted exports. These expectations and concerns provided support for cotton prices in the first two months of 2010/11.

The ICAC price model predicts that the average annual Cotlook A index for 2010/11 is 90 cents / pound, up 15% from the previous year, the highest price since 1994/95.

The 95% confidence interval is 78 cents -106 cents / pound.

This forecast indicates that cotton prices may fall from the current high level later this year.

However, external factors, such as uncertain global economic prospects, may affect the global cotton trade and price competition between cotton and other fibers. These factors may affect the growth of cotton in 2010/11.