RMB Appreciation Cotton Prices Rise: Double Pressure Part Of Spinning Enterprises Or Stop Production

In recent two years, our country's

Once again and again, the three blow made China's textile enterprises go on thin ice and face the crisis of collapse again.

Is it just beginning to warm up the textile enterprises to prepare for the winter?

Insiders pointed out that although the textile industry is a sustainable development industry, there are still some serious problems in the whole industry, and external uncertainties still exist, which has increased the operational risk of the industry.

RMB appreciation promotes exports

In September 16th, the yuan rose 69 basis points to 6.7181 against the US dollar, which is the new low of the fifth consecutive trading days of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar since 2005.

Since September 10th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has surged by 636 basis points.

Many agencies predict that the trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue in the future.

The Ministry of finance of Xiangcai securities expects that the appreciation of RMB will be between 3-5% this year, and this increase will be the upper limit for most enterprises.

The appreciation of RMB has caused a certain negative impact on China's exports, and textile and apparel industry as a highly dependent foreign trade is more sensitive to the change of RMB exchange rate, especially the small and medium sized textile enterprises in the industry. Due to the lack of bargaining power, the appreciation rate that can be tolerated is relatively small, so the export of the entire industry will be adversely affected by the appreciation.

Prior to this, authoritative estimates have indicated that the net profit margin of the textile industry will decrease by 1% when the value of RMB is increased by 1%, which will further compress its profit margins for the textile industry whose profit margins are already low.

It is also widely expected that the export recovery of textile and garment industry will slow down in the fourth quarter of this year.

Reporters learned in the interview that most export textile enterprises are considering increasing the price of export products to offset the impact of RMB appreciation on enterprises.

In addition to the way to raise the price of products, there are also ways to hedge RMB appreciation by means of hedging.

The staff of the Securities Department of the Japan Securities and futures Department told reporters that because the company's raw materials are mainly imported, the losses brought by the appreciation of the renminbi will be reduced.

In addition, the company will consider raising the price of the product later.

At present, the company is relying on financial products to make up for the loss of RMB appreciation.

Lu Tai A's securities department staff said that the company's export products have been raising prices this year, in addition, the company also hedged the way to deal with the appreciation of the renminbi.

At the same time, along with the rise of cotton prices, it is also necessary for textile enterprises to continue to increase their prices.

Cotton prices rise from supply shortage.

Relative to the losses brought by the appreciation of RMB to the textile enterprises, the soaring prices of cotton have become the "Golden Stone" for the textile enterprises to continue to survive.

This year, cotton prices have been soaring rapidly, constantly refreshing the highest record in the past 10 years.

In October 9th, the cotton price index was 22865 yuan / ton, more than 300 yuan / ton on the first day after the national day.

Compared with the 18002 yuan / ton in early September, the increase has exceeded 20%.

The price of one ton of standard cotton also surged to over 20000 yuan from 8000 yuan in September last year, which has risen 1.5 times in one year.

As cotton prices have risen so rapidly, Kong Xiangzhi, vice president of the school of agriculture and rural development of Renmin University of China, said the main reason is that supply and demand affect prices.

Kong Xiangzhi analysis: "supply is still insufficient, demand has been rising, leading to price rise, from the point of view of supply and demand, this is inevitable.

Last year, production is declining. We import these years every year. Cotton imports have decreased this year, such as India abruptly prohibit cotton exports, and cotton in other countries has not yet come, there is a process.

It is possible to alleviate this contradiction after coming over.

This year's cotton production is expected to be further cut than last year.

There are many reasons for the rising price of cotton.

According to the China Cotton Association Bulletin, in addition to factors such as fertilizer, pesticides, seeds and other cotton growing costs, sowing postponed this year, meteorological disasters and other cotton production will also have a certain impact, cotton purchase price is definitely higher than last year; on the other hand, after the financial crisis, foreign orders increased sharply, cotton demand increased greatly, there was a gap between cotton production and demand, thus prompting cotton prices to rise.

According to a survey, cotton farmers' confidence has been frustrated and their planting area has been reduced due to low cotton prices in 2008.

At the same time, the change of international cotton supply and demand also has an impact on domestic cotton prices.

According to reports, the main cotton producing areas in the world are affected by disaster factors, production is down, India has reduced cotton exports, and the low US dollar has driven cotton futures prices higher. These superposition factors have boosted China's cotton prices.

In addition, the rise in cotton prices has also caused the speculation of idle capital and the reluctant sale of cotton farmers.

In addition, demand is also a major reason for the rise in cotton prices.

China's textile industry continued to stabilize and pick up in the second half of last year. In 2010 1-2, domestic yarn output increased considerably, up 26.52% compared to the same period last year, and the operating rate and order situation of the enterprises were much better than that of the same period last year.

In addition, the demand gap of cotton has also caused some people's hype behavior to speed up cotton prices.

Domestic cotton has always been skyrocketing and plummeting. The key reason is that some processing areas, circulation areas and cotton textile enterprises always expect low price hoarding of cotton to make profits, causing sharp changes in the inventory of enterprises and society, resulting in a sharp rise and fall in cotton prices.

Zhang Bin, an analyst of state textile securities, which keeps track of cotton textile industry, pointed out that this year's funds not only involved in cotton speculation in the past years are still in existence, but also new funds have been added. Obviously, some funds have been stockpiling goods through the spot market, and have gained huge profits in the futures market.

Under the so-called market expectations and capital participation, the soaring cotton prices become inevitable.

Cotton prices rise, textile enterprises tighten "waistband"

As the textile industry in the early stage is getting warmer and faster, and the industry is booming, the inventory of domestic textile enterprises is also at a low level, and the inventory of some textile enterprises is generally in the range of half a month to a month.

The continued boom in cotton prices has made these textile enterprises panic.

A textile company official said that the price of cotton yarn has been unstable since the first half of the year, and sometimes the supply of goods is also very tight.

In September, as cotton prices soared, the price of cotton yarn was one price per day, and the increase was one thousand or two thousand yuan.

When spinning enterprises face cotton prices "one day, one sample", they can only suspend their contracts with customers.

Some small cotton spinning enterprises are facing a dilemma because of low bargaining power: the high price of upstream cotton producing areas and the downstream foreign trade enterprises are afraid to take orders.

Similarly, foreign trade enterprises are faced with the dilemma of "single can not do".

Feng Kejian, general manager of Shaoxing Yijia textile foreign trade company, said that the price of grey cloth has increased the profit space constantly compressed. The 10% profit space that was originally discussed is likely to be compressed to 5% or even lose money at once.

The rise in cotton prices has not only threatened small textile enterprises, but also affected the strength of listed companies.

Most of the listed companies of textile enterprises said they would raise product prices to deal with the rise in cotton prices.

The staff of the Securities Department of the stock group said to the reporter that the company has more stock and can guarantee production until next February, so the company will not purchase cotton in the near future.

The above workers believe that cotton prices may be callback in the first 11 months of this year.

"I believe that after this Canton Fair, the order of each enterprise will be reduced because of the increase in the price of cotton. After all, the price of the product will rise too much, and the customers will not accept it.

After that, the price of cotton will be lowered as cotton demand decreases, and the company will consider buying it at that time.

Similarly, Lu Tai A also told reporters that he would wait for a good time to buy Cotton under adequate inventory conditions.