Decision Making Reached A Consensus &Nbsp; Economic Growth In The Next Five Years Should Be Appropriately Slowed Down.

"New wine in old bottles."

This is an international investment bank's report to customers in October 15th to China.

The proposal on China's national strategic intentions in the coming years is published in October 27th.

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher in National School of Administration's decision consultation department, said in an interview with this reporter, "the biggest bright spot is not growth indicators, but rather

Many brainpower thinkers who interviewed by this reporter expressed their affirmation of the idea of the proposal.

"It seems almost (expression), but behind every sentence there is a story."

A participant in his own voice showed his feelings.

Structural adjustment

Is "12th Five-Year" restructured, or will there be essential difference?

In Wang Xiaoguang's view, in the past, the pformation of development mode and structural adjustment is more general and there is no clear goal.

The proposal puts forward qualitative objectives, which is the biggest difference.

"The pformation of development mode and structural adjustment must pass in the '12th Five-Year'.

He believes that the "12th Five-Year" plan issued in March next year, the goal of structural adjustment should be qualitative and quantitative indicators.

Among the five major objectives proposed in the recommendations, the "steady and rapid economic development" and "significant progress in strategic readjustment of the economic structure" are among the top two.

China's reform over the past 30 years shows that the two goals of ensuring growth and adjusting the structure will undoubtedly be consistent in the long run, but there will be contradictions in the short term.

How to coordinate the two priorities is undoubtedly the key to decision-making in the next five years.

From the "75" period, it began to participate in the five year plan (Planning) research and development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of economics researcher Zhang Yuan Yuan admitted in an interview with this reporter, "for the contradiction between growth and structural adjustment, originally did not recognize, now recognize", there is no certain speed of development, of course, there will be problems, such as employment problems will appear, but the current high growth is also unsustainable, "two digit growth, absolutely can not be long-term."

In the next five years, the demand for structural adjustment in various fields will be more intense.

Fan Jianping, chief economist of the national information center and director of the Department of economic forecasting, said that during the "12th Five-Year" period, adjusting the structure was the main factor, and ensuring growth should be the second time. Adjusting the economic structure and speeding up the pformation of development pattern were the most important tasks, and maintaining steady and rapid economic development was a prerequisite.

Fan Jianping reminded us that we should avoid changing the structure once a year, and put forward some special situations every year, such as "focusing on the short-term problems in the international situation this year" and ignoring the long-term tasks.

At present, China's economic growth should slow down moderately in the next five years, and consensus has been reached between academics and policy makers.

Wang Xiaoguang said that China's economic structure must be adjusted. Structural adjustment actually includes the moderation of growth rate. If it does not slow down the growth environment, structural adjustment can not be accelerated.

Zhuang Jian, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, believes that the "structural adjustment" highlighted by the proposal means that the central government has greater tolerance for economic growth.

"This shows a directional change.

Because if the target of growth rate is set high, others do not emphasize that it will eventually lead to economic growth in all regions and make structural adjustment more difficult.

Although the policy direction is clear, some scholars worry that the effect of policy implementation may not be satisfactory, even contrary to the expected goal.

In Zhang Zhuoyuan's view, there are many ways to pform the mode of economic development. "The most important thing is to push ahead with reform. Government reform is the most important task, that is, to accelerate the reform of the administrative system."

The reason is that the government is more inclined to maximize the benefits of the tenure in the past five years. It will choose the most extensive expansion of GDP and show its achievements.

In Zhang Zhuoyuan's view, the driving force for pforming the mode of economic development is very insufficient, and the power of extensive expansion is very strong. "We can feel it when we look at the place. Under the leadership of GDP, it is too difficult to achieve this pformation."

The planning proposal put forward the promotion of the great development of service industry as the strategic focus of the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and promoted the pformation of economic growth to the synergy of the first, second and third industries.

Many of the contents of the recommendations were mentioned in the 11th Five-Year, but they are put in a more important position.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, believes that the "12th Five-Year" period will be more inclined to the service sector, such as the reform of resource goods prices and the pformation of value-added tax.

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Consumer demand tops the list

The second part of the proposal separately discusses "insisting on expanding domestic demand strategy", emphasizes the expansion of consumption demand as the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, and proposes to further release the consumption potential of urban and rural residents, and gradually "make the overall scale of China's domestic market rank in the forefront of the world".

In the "three carriages" of economic growth, consumption was first listed before investment and export.

The subtle changes in policy formulation are of course profound significance, but what is more important is the specific and feasible policies to activate consumption.

Fan Jianping believes that the market capacity of a country depends on two aspects: one is the population, the two is the purchasing power per capita.

Now that the total population is already there, the next step is to walk more firmly on the road of enriching the people, so that the people can get rich and raise their purchasing power per capita.

Zhuang Jian further believes that there are three steps to improve actual purchasing power. First, it is to let people get money to spend, that is, to increase their incomes; secondly, to have money to spend, that is to say, the social security system should be more perfect, and consumption has no worries; the third is to spend money at ease, that is, to improve the consumption market and environment. "The most important thing is the first two steps, and the growth of income is the core."

On the aspect of income growth, the proposal put forward guidelines for the first time, and formulated the goal of "double synchronization", that is, to achieve the simultaneous growth of household income and economic development, the increase of labor remuneration and the improvement of labor productivity.

Fan Jianping said that the goal of "Bi synchronization" is repeatedly and argumentation that China has arrived at the stage of "if we want to increase the consumption rate and make people's incomes rise first", if the residents' income growth rate is below GDP for a long time, the decline of consumption share of GDP will become an inevitable result.

There are still some doubts about the "synchronization" target. First, how big the binding force will be, whether it can become a binding quantitative indicator in the "12th Five-Year" planning framework. Two, is the growth of residents' income synchronized with the expected growth rate of economic growth or with the actual growth rate?

Wang Xiaoguang believes that "synchronized with the expected growth rate is very good, if we can achieve synchronous growth with the actual, better".

Preliminary estimates show that in the past 30 years, China's GDP has increased by 10% annually, and the average annual income of urban and rural residents has increased by 6%-8%.

Fan Jianping believes that this "synchronization" target may still be expected indicators, it is difficult to achieve binding targets.

"It is great to ensure that the growth rate of revenue is no less than the expected growth rate of GDP."

First of all, the growth of residents' income is not less than the expected target of GDP, especially the income of farmers.

Another indication of the synchronism of the increase in labor remuneration and the increase in labor productivity is that the new profits obtained from the increase in labour productivity are basically taken away by the owners of capital, and the laborers share very little from the middle.

In this regard, the reform of income distribution has led to a breakthrough in many fields, such as the opening of labor market, the reform of state-owned enterprises dividends, the liberalization of monopoly industries, and the development of private enterprises.

In Zhuang Jian's view, the increase of residents' income is still a long way to go. It requires not only the reform of wage formation mechanism, but also a substantive breakthrough in the mechanism of labor and capital negotiation.

Zhang Zhuoyuan also said that the most important measure to increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution is to enable workers to negotiate strength.

In the current labor negotiations, workers are often in a weak position, and the management is strong, and the government and trade unions tend to favor the management.

Therefore, "trade unions should be well constructed and truly represent the interests of labourers, so that workers can have the right to speak in labour negotiations."

Besides, whether the social security system such as education and medical treatment is perfect will also affect the real income of labourers.

Taking migrant workers as an example, Zhuang Jian believes that the government must give equal opportunities to migrant workers not only to let migrant workers enter cities.

If migrant workers can not be treated equally in medical and educational fields, they will inevitably affect the improvement of employment and work skills, and also affect the income.