Operation Analysis Of Cotton Spinning Industry In The Three Quarter Of 2010

In the three quarter of 2010, the economic operation of cotton textile industry basically extended to the good situation in the first half of the year, and some indexes also created the best level in history. However, the factors restricting development will still exist for a long time.

Cotton prices soared and stayed high, and the central parity of RMB against the US dollar continued to record high. The three major campaigns in the global market - exchange rate wars, trade wars and cost wars are imminent. The textile industry is under pressure and risks. The fourth quarter, especially the cotton textile industry before and after the listing of new cotton, has attracted much attention.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the cumulative yarn production of Enterprises above Designated Size in China in 2010 1~8 was 17 million 499 thousand tons, an increase of 16.23% over the same period last year, representing a slowdown of about 1.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. In August, the yarn production was 2 million 468 thousand and 300 tons, a 7.08% increase in the chain, and a new high output per month in 2010.

In 2010 1~8, the cumulative output of Enterprises above Designated Size in China was 41 billion 140 million meters, an increase of 17.43% over the same period last year, representing a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points over the first half of the year. In August, the output of cloth was 5 billion 631 million meters, a decrease of 1.31% compared with that in the first half of the year. After June, the output of single month cloth continued to decline slightly, but it was still higher than the average monthly output of 1~8.

Judging from the situation of provinces, the total yarn production in 1~8 months in 2010 was higher than that in Shandong, Jiangsu and Henan provinces. The three provinces accounted for about 58.5% of the national yarn production, of which Henan grew by 23.89% compared to the same period last year. In 2010, the total production volume in Henan was higher than that in Zhejiang, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. The three provinces accounted for 59.8% of the total output of the whole country, and the growth rate of Hebei province increased by 41.22%.

Trade balance reached the highest level in the same period.

According to China's customs statistics, the total export amount of China's cotton textile clothing was 49 billion 410 million US dollars in 1~8 month in 2010, accounting for 37.1% of the total export of textiles and clothing; the cumulative export amount in 1~8 month increased by 23.48%, slightly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of textile and clothing exports.

In 1~8 month of 2010, China's cotton textile clothing imported 4 billion 80 million US dollars, accounting for 31.7% of the total import of textiles and clothing, up 16% from the same year, which was lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 3 percentage points.

It can be calculated that the total trade surplus of China's cotton textiles and clothing reached US $45 billion 330 million in 1~8 months, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2002.

Among them, the total export volume of cotton textiles amounted to US $14 billion 470 million, an increase of 27.79% over the same period last year, and the total export volume of cotton garments was US $34 billion 930 million, up 21.77% over the same period last year.

The export of cotton textiles increased year by year, and the demand for the international market remained large.

In the export of cotton textiles, 1~8 cotton yarn exports totaled 386 thousand tons, an increase of 9.38% over the same period last year, and the total export value totaled US $1 billion 570 million, up 28.83% over the same period last year. The average unit price increased by 17.68% over the same period last year. The rising price of cotton raw materials has become an important factor supporting the growth of the export price of cotton yarn.

Judging from the major categories, the fastest growth rate of exports is the blended yarn. The fastest growth in export volume is the combed cotton yarn, which shows that international consumption demand has changed before.

1~8 cotton fabric exports totaled 5 billion 40 million meters, an increase of 27.61% over the previous year, and the total export value was 6 billion 520 million US dollars, up 40.71% over the same period last year. The average unit price increased by 10.26% over the same period last year.

On the basis of varieties, the export volume of pure cotton cloth accounted for 86.7%, and the export volume accounted for 85.6%. Compared with cotton blended fabric, the export volume and amount of pure cotton cloth accounted for the absolute advantage, but the average unit price was relatively inferior.

The following figure shows that grey cloth occupies an absolute advantage in the export of cotton fabrics in China, and the color fabric (excluding DENIM) presents a wave like rise. The denim has been more stable since March.

Imports of cotton and cotton blended fabrics increased by a negative year over year.

In the import of cotton textiles, China imported 1 million 952 thousand tons of raw cotton in 1~8 months in 2010, an increase of nearly 100% over the same period last year, of which 240 thousand tons were imported in August and 4.2, 6.3 and 71 thousand tons respectively, compared with imports in May, June and July.

The total import cotton yarn in 1~8 months increased 733 thousand tons, an increase of 12.49% over the same period last year. The import volume, import volume and import average price of combed cotton yarn were the fastest growth year after year, and echoed with the rise of cotton prices. The total imports of cotton fabrics in were 550 million meters, down 6.14% compared with the same period last year. The imports of pure cotton cloth decreased by 8.8% compared with the same period last year. The largest decline in pure cotton products was the pure cotton grey cloth, and the cotton blended fabric imports increased by 11.34% over the same period last year.

From this we can see that the demand for cotton in China's domestic market has remained high since the second half of the year. Due to the factors of domestic raw material prices and labor force, some cotton textile enterprises need to solve the demand for combed cotton yarn by importing it, and at the same time, due to the continuous rising of cotton prices in the domestic market, the pressure of purchasing raw materials funds has increased, and the demand for non cotton products has increased.

The new pattern of import and export market has been formed.

The market share of the five main export markets of cotton textiles in China is 57.4%, of which Hongkong and ASEAN occupy the top two with absolute advantages. ASEAN market ranks first in the growth rate of 41.88% over the same period. In contrast, the US and European markets are still in the recovery period, while the share of mainland China in the Japanese market is slightly weaker.

On the import side, the total five markets account for only 27.9% of the total imports. It can be seen that the import market of cotton textiles in China is more diversified than that in the export market. Among them, the three largest markets in ASEAN, Japan and Hongkong in China are more prominent in the mainland market, and the east alliance is accelerating the grab of the import market share of our country with a strong momentum. While Japan and Hongkong regions both have negative year-on-year growth, the European Union and the United States have varying degrees of growth.

The quality of operation is better than that of previous years.

The deficit of enterprises has been decreasing and the average number of employees is increasing.

In August 2010, the number of Enterprises above Designated Size in cotton textile industry in China (hereinafter referred to as cotton textile enterprises) increased by 161, compared with the number of enterprises in May this year, an increase of 161, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.24%, and the growth rate was slightly higher than that of May this year; the number of deficit enterprises was 1215, down 31.24% compared to the same period last year; the loss side accounted for 10.18%, continuing the loss trend of the first half of this year, which continued to decline, a 2.2 percentage point drop compared with May, a 6.04 percentage point drop compared with the same period last year, and the entire cotton textile industry showed an unprecedented favorable situation.

In 2010 1~8, the average number of employees in China's cotton textile industry above designated size was 2 million 525 thousand, which increased by about 38 thousand compared with the 1~5 months of this year, up 1.15% compared with the same period last year. For the first time, the average number of employees has increased steadily since the financial crisis.

The basic indicators continue to grow at different speeds.

In 2010 1~8, the total output value of China's cotton textile enterprises (current price) was 791 billion 811 million yuan, an increase of 27.39% over the previous year, and the value of export delivery was 63 billion 16 million yuan, an increase of 29.11% over the same period last year. The industrial sales value (current price) was 777 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 27.95% over the same period last year, and the main business income was 776 billion 893 million yuan, up 29.06% over the same period last year.

The above four indicators basically maintained the rapid growth since the first half of this year.

In 2010 1~8, the main business profit of China's cotton textile enterprises was 80 billion 668 million yuan, an increase of 35.98% over the same period, and the total profit was 37 billion 15 million yuan, an increase of 66.45% compared with the same period last year. The two indicators continued to grow year-on-year in the first half of this year, but the growth rate slowed down year by year, representing a decrease of 10 percentage points over that of 1~5 months.

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The profit margin has reached a new high and the per capita contribution has gradually increased.

Since the end of 2008, the profit margin of China's cotton textile industry has been recovering strongly since the beginning of 2009. After the profit margin of cotton textile industry reached the highest level in the same period in May this year, cotton textile enterprises redoubled their efforts in August and increased the profit margin by 0.14 percentage points to 4.76%, which once again hit a record high and surpassed the level before the financial crisis.

In 2008 1~8 to 2010 1~8 monthly profit margins of cotton textile industry change trend chart, the profit margin level has formed a "trend".

Investment proportion and year-on-year increase.

In 2010 1~8, China's cotton and chemical fiber textile processing industry (hereinafter referred to as the cotton textile industry) actually invested 57 billion 330 million yuan, accounting for 43.6% of the textile industry's actual investment, an increase of 15.08% over the same period last year, which has increased by 1.1 percentage points compared with the cumulative investment situation in 1~5 month this year. The growth rate has increased by nearly 4 percentage points over the same period.

In 2010 1~8, China's cotton textile industry accumulated 1303 new projects, representing a decrease of about 1.7% compared with the same period last year.

According to the regional situation, the proportion of central and western regions in 2010 1~8 increased significantly compared with the previous two years, especially in the central region. The growth rate in the central region was larger than that in the western region, and the decline in the eastern region was also increasing year by year.

Judging from the proportion of the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of central China's growth slowed down by quarter, while the proportion of the western region showed a growth trend in the first half of this year and negative growth in the current quarter.

According to sub provinces, nine provinces actually completed more than 2 billion investment in 1~8 months in 2010, and Henan ranked 10 billion 70 million in real investment.

Compared with the first half, Shandong took the place of Jiangsu in second place, and Fujian exceeded Sichuan and Shaanxi ranked ninth.

The fastest growth year on year was Hubei, Jiangxi and Fujian.

Prices of raw materials and products rose sharply.

Raw material Market: the raw cotton market entered the market in September, the spot resources of the market were tight, and the cotton production reduction in the new year is expected to increase.

From the point of view of commodities, the raw material inventory of enterprises in 2010 was relatively high, and the market turnover was slow, and the price was hovering over the same period in 2009.

The Department has increased the quota of 800 thousand tons of imported cotton, but the impact of India's cotton embargo policy has aggravated the tightening of market resources. The cotton price has risen again, and the increase has reached 1000 yuan / ton. In the early June, the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy continued to increase the quota of 800 thousand tons, and formulated a dumping plan, which slowed down. In July, the market demand showed a slight decline and the influence of macroeconomic regulation and control policy, the first decline in the middle of this year, the 350 yuan per ton in the end of August; the price of cotton entering cotton increased almost daily, and the cotton price reached 21890 yuan / ton, which was up 3700 yuan / ton than the low price. In March, the price per month increased by more than 1100 yuan from the end of the month to the beginning of the month. In April, the stock of enterprises increased, procurement slowed down and prices rose steadily; in May, macroeconomic regulation and control were carried out.

In view of the situation of reserve cotton, the state began selling 600 thousand tons of national cotton (mainly Xinjiang cotton) in August 10th to ensure market demand. Cotton spinning enterprises were active in the market because of the tight cotton market. However, the spot market high grade resources were scarce. Besides the special situation in the market in August 19th and September 26th, the average price of the cotton textile industry showed a low and high trend.

In the late stage, with the reduction of resources, the resources in the spot market are very thick, and the competition for cotton reserves is very fierce. The average daily turnover (328 fold) has risen to 24556 yuan / ton, which has directly promoted the spot price and the purchase price of cotton in the new year (the highest purchase price of the standard class has reached more than 10 yuan per kilogram).

In order to stabilize cotton prices, the relevant state departments in September 26th increased the amount of 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves and stopped the qualification examination of the textile enterprises that did not enter the market, and increased the daily turnover to 30 thousand tons.

In September 27th, the national cotton teleconference conference was held. The relevant departments put forward the state's ability to guarantee the cotton demand of enterprises, and issued five measures to control cotton prices. It pointed out that there is a lot of speculation in the market at present, and enterprises should pay attention to guarding against operational risks.

The average selling price of cotton reserves dropped day by day, and spot purchase prices also dropped slightly.

Entering the October, the National Day holiday ended, the price of cotton reserves continued to rise, the risk of cotton spinning enterprises was increasing, and the support of downstream enterprises was weak.

Judging from the international cotton market, international cotton prices also show a rapid upward trend.

As the international cotton production is also affected by the weather, coupled with the anticipation of the increase in cotton consumption in the new year, the international cotton price has risen all the way, and the A index has not been offered in July.

The increase in downstream demand has stimulated the consumption of domestic and international cotton. Since August, the growth rate of international cotton prices has been faster than that of domestic cotton.

By the end of September, the A index reached 115.6 cents per pound, and the import price of the sliding tariff was 20396 yuan / ton, which was almost the same as that of domestic cotton. In 2010 1~8, China imported a total of 1 million 952 thousand tons of raw cotton, an increase of nearly 1 times compared with the same period last year, and the import unit price also increased 1.77 times compared with that of the previous year.

With the sharp rise in international cotton prices, the international cotton yarn prices gradually increased, the rate of imports declined faster than the first half of the year.

The average import price of cotton yarn increased by nearly 34% over the same period last year.

Judging from the situation of the chemical fiber short fiber market, the price difference between polyester and viscose staple fibers has gradually decreased, and the polyester staple fiber has risen from 9800 yuan / ton in the beginning of the year to 10800 yuan / ton in mid April. It began to decline gradually in the beginning of the last decade, and the price rose at the end of 6. However, the demand for yarn was still large. Compared with pure cotton products, the stock of chemical fiber yarn was relatively abundant, and entered the third quarter, the market price was low, and the price rose rapidly in September.

Viscose staple fiber in the first half of the two quarter of the performance is very different, the first quarter of the spinning enterprises inventory is low, demand is smooth, prices steadily rise.

In the second quarter, downstream yarn prices continued downward, pulling down the price of staple fibers, and changing the first half of 2009.

From July to the beginning of August, although the prices of upstream raw materials increased, the decline of staple fibers remained unchanged.

The two trade meeting of the viscose industry association has prompted enterprises to unanimously raise their prices. Since August 6th, prices have started to rise. In September, with the increase of cotton prices, viscose staple fibers began to rise sharply, and the price at the end of the month exceeded the highest price in the first half of 300 yuan / ton, reaching 20450 yuan / ton.

Gauze Market: Generally speaking, the trend of gauze price tends to converge with cotton trend.

Judging from the market situation of yarn, the price of yarns ran smoothly in the first two months of the year, and rose with the increase of raw materials.

In April, with the smooth operation of cotton raw materials, the spot market tightened in late May and mid June, and the price rose again. According to the understanding of enterprises, the inventory fell from the same period last year, and orders were very abundant, especially cotton yarn.

In late June, the market stabilized again, and the demand for restores decreased, and the atmosphere of the paction weakened. In July, with the slight decline in cotton prices, the price of pure cotton yarn began to decline. The price of medium and high counts yarn decreased more than that of low count yarn, and the range dropped to 1000~1500 yuan. In August, the market turnover was lower than that in July, and the price index still showed less trend than that in the first half of the year.

Because of the rapid increase in prices, business risks are increasing, and the ability of downstream enterprises to bear is limited.

The raw material inventory of small and medium-sized enterprises is low, production and operation costs are increasing, and the economic situation is not optimistic.

It is also stable at a price level; in late May, driven by demand and the rise of upstream yarn, the cotton textile enterprises with substantial raw material storage or more stock of grey fabrics are more profitable than before; in late July, some of the gray fabric prices have fallen, but the price of some grey fabrics has declined, but the production cost and export market support are relatively strong. The overall sales volume in August market is still not strong, the price has dropped slightly, and prices have been stabilized in the middle of the market. After the September 5th, the market is active, and the average price of the grey cloth representative varieties is also rising to a new high. Judging from the market of grey fabric, the price stabilized in the first two months of the year, suddenly jumped in early March, then continued to grow steadily, and entered April.