October Economic Data Released Today: &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Interest Rate Increases Again.

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All sides predict that CPI or 4% interest rate increase will increase.

On the day before the release of the data (10 days), Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the development and Reform Commission's price department, said that the annual CPI growth rate may exceed 3%, which is still in line with the expected price control targets at the beginning of the year.

He said, now the annual CPI increase is higher than 3%, but it is not much higher, so it still meets the target of the expected price regulation at the beginning of the year. We say it is about 3%, maybe a little bit more.

"How to judge the current price situation, we should say that prices will still run high in October, November and December, and will be higher in October and November. With the disappearance of the tail factor in December, the increase may be lower, and only a little more than 3% a year."

Zhou Wangjun said.

Combined with projections from other parties, the CPI growth rate in October will reach a two-year high of 4%, much higher than 3.6% in September.

In view of the central bank's announcement of the rate hike two days before the CPI announcement in September, the market worries that the inflation pressure of accelerated growth in October will stimulate the central bank to raise interest rates again.

At the same time, the central bank recently issued a 32 billion yuan one-year central bank ticket in the open market, winning the bid yield by 5.24 basis points to 2.3437%.

In view of the one-year central bank interest rate is the vane of bank interest rate adjustment, this action further aggravated market anxiety.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said that China's economic growth rate is expected to slow next year, while inflation pressure will increase. The inflation rate should be no less than 4%. The fastest price rise should be in the first three months of next year.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities, believes that the inflation rate in October will reach 4%, and that the central bank will raise interest rates again during the year.

He predicts that by the middle of next year, China will have at least 3 consecutive interest rates raising, and the possibility of asymmetric increase in interest rates will be higher.

CPI, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, said that in October, CPI could break through 4%, reaching 4.2%, an increase of 0.6% over the previous month.

Lu commissar expects that PPI will rebound for the first time in October, an increase of 5% over the same period last year, up 0.7% from the previous month.

Bank of communications in the latest research report also pointed out that in October 2010, CPI once again hit a new high in the year, the annual increase of CPI in 2010 is around 3.1%.

In the first half of 2011, prices may return to the rising channel, and the pressure of rising prices in the first half of next year will be greater.

Standard Chartered Bank released a report on November 5th that China will raise interest rates again before the end of the year.

The world bank also said last week that China needs to raise interest rates further in order to curb inflation expectations.

Prior to this, Credit Suisse quoted the central bank's quarterly policy report that the Central Bank of China may give up its moderately relaxed position next year and instead replace it with a neutral stance.

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The central bank raises the reserve requirement rate experts: interest rates will still increase during the year.

The people's Bank of China announced the latest news on the evening of 10, which will increase the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from November 16, 2010.

Professor Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio mainly in order to control credit and control inflation.

Guo Tianyong said that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio mainly to control bank credit and thus control inflation.

Because domestic inflation pressure is relatively large, especially after the implementation of the two quantitative easing policy in the United States, domestic inflation expectations are increasing.

As for whether interest rates will increase during the year, Guo Tianyong said that the October macroeconomic data released on 11 may predict that CPI will reach a new high in the year, which is likely to reach 4% and above. Therefore, the central bank's recent interest rate increase is relatively large. The rate of interest increase may be 25 to 50 basis points for deposit interest rates, which may be synchronized up and may be asymmetric interest rate increase. If asymmetric interest rate rises are adopted, the deposit interest rate will increase substantially.

He expects that there will be at least another interest rate increase in the year. We should also observe the November economic data. If inflation continues to rise, it will not exclude two interest rates during the year.

The pition from monetary policy to "stability" will reduce the size of new loans.

With the rising rate of calls for raising interest rates, the industry believes that monetary policy is moving from "moderately loose" to "stable".

This year's credit target is 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan, 1-9 months has reached nearly 6 trillion and 300 billion yuan of credit, the remaining 3 months of the amount dropped to 400 billion yuan per month.

But economists and institutions still have higher credit forecasts, up to 650 billion yuan, with an average of 480 billion yuan.

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said that China's systemic financial risks are on the rise.

In order to guard against this risk, we should turn the monetary policy from a positive and moderate easing to a prudent or even prudent or tighter one on the premise of the healthy recovery of the real economy, and strictly supervise the capital market and financial institutions, and promote the opening of capital accounts with high caution.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, said that the recent increase in interest rates mainly reflects the government's strong confidence in the domestic economic momentum, rather than the beginning of the overall tightening of monetary policy.

It is expected that the government will maintain 7 trillion and 500 billion of the new loan quota this year, and set a new loan target of about 7 trillion yuan for 2011. However, it will normalize interest rates and increase interest rates by three times.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, also said that the increase in credit line control and reserve ratio would reduce new credit in October.

In the three quarter, steady economic growth, higher price rises and larger scale of new loans in September will urge regulators to tighten credit control.

New loans are expected to be stable during the year, and there is little chance of a significant increase.

According to China Merchants Bank, the credit market showed a relatively stable trend in October, despite the asymmetric increase in reserves and interest rate hikes.

It is expected that credit will be increased by 450 billion yuan in the same month, driving M2 up by 19.31% compared with the same period last year, and M1 will increase by 20.67% over the same period.