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Prospects For The Development Of Brand Clothing

2010/12/23 17:57:00 57

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In the first 8 months of this year, the textile industry revenue growth and profit growth rate continued to decline, respectively, 26.83% and 53.60%, compared with the previous 5 months, a decrease of 0.6310.22 percentage points, the profit growth rate dropped significantly more than the income growth rate, while the clothing industry as far as possible revenue growth declined, but the profit growth rate continued to rise, respectively, 22.35% and 30.92%, the income growth rate decreased by 1.63 percentage points compared with May, the profit growth rate increased by 4.28 percentage points, but the pace of ascension has slowed down.

Look at the export situation in the coming year

The total turnover of the 108 Canton Fair increased by 6.711% over the same period last year, down 9.25 percentage points from the same period last year.

We regard the 108 Canton Fair as one of the performances of the peripheral economy, which is still sluggish. We also take the major export countries' consumption expenditure, consumer confidence and other indicators as well as the trend of RMB exchange rate to judge, we can see the prospect of the resumption of external demand.

We maintain textiles.

Garment export

Judging from the decline, it is expected that the growth rate of textile and garment exports will drop to around 15% in 2011.

Cotton price rising trend has not weakened

Despite the fact that the state has issued a policy of tightening the credit tightening policy for cotton enterprises, the textile industry has already been introduced.

Garment export

In the middle of November, cotton prices rebounded in the middle of the year. Some market analysts also believed that cotton prices were slowing down, but we maintained that the trend of cotton prices did not change according to the fact of supply and demand gap.

Money creates consumption

In the first 10 months of 2010, the retail sales increased by 18.30%. In August, hundreds of key retail enterprises in China

Sale

An increase of 16.8% over the same period indicates strong domestic consumption capacity.

Because the income level of residents is still in the ascend trend, the proportion of Chinese residents' consumption in total income is still relatively low, and the propensity to consume is rising continuously.

We expect the growth of retail growth in 2010 will remain around 18%; according to historical experience, money creates consumption, and 1-2 years after M2 expansion, social consumption has entered a period of high growth. The growth of M2 in 2009 is maintained between 20%-30%, excess circulation of money, this will be reflected in the consumption field in 2011, and the expected inflation rate of about 4% is expected in 2011, and we expect the retail growth rate between 18-20% in 2011.

Industry "neutral", clothing sub industry "overweight"

In the context of consumption upgrading and inflation prevention, we have long been optimistic about the prospects of brand clothing.

We compare the growth process, financial data and market value of domestic brand clothing listed companies with overseas brands GAP, POLO, ZARA and H&M. We believe that the brand clothing and home textile industry are still in the early stages of the word, and the future prospects are broad. Compared with the second tier cities, the three or four line market of urban and rural areas and rural areas will increase faster in the future, while the low concentration of industries on the three or four line market will provide a larger market space for those companies with independent brands and those who are experiencing channel sinking.

Investment evaluation of key listed companies.

We are optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the formal clothing and casual wear industry in brand clothing. We will continue to take good care of the silver and Jiangsu industries.