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Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounded 3.3 Percentage Points In December

2011/1/4 10:23:00 45

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　　 In January 3rd, China Logistics and Purchasing Federation (CFLP) the index of China's non manufacturing business activities in December 2010 was 56.5%, up 3.3 percentage points from November.

　　 Non Manufacturing Purchasing Manager The human index reflects the overall activity of the non manufacturing economy. However, because the non manufacturing sector does not have a composite index, the general situation of the non manufacturing economy is usually reflected by the business activity index. At present, the index has been maintained at more than 50% for 10 consecutive months.

Judging from the main sub index, the new order index reached 52.3% in December 2010, a 2.2 percentage point increase in the annulus ratio, a 3.3 percentage point rise in the new export orders index and 50.6% in the annex, and a 2.8 percentage point rise in the business activity index, reaching 66.7%. China Logistics Information Center, which is responsible for data analysis, thinks that in December 2010, the market economy activity of non manufacturing industry is developing steadily.

In December 2010, the business activity index of producer services increased by 4.3 percentage points, to 59.7%, and maintained at the 59% average level for the whole year. Its new order index increased by 0.9 percentage points to 54.6%. Its business activity expectations index reached 67.1%, the top three industries, indicating that the producer services industry still maintained rapid development.

The business activity index and new order index of consumer service industry rose to more than 50% in December 2010 after double callbacks in November. Among them, the business activity index reached 53.1%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, a new order index of 50.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, indicating that new festivals such as new year's day, Spring Festival and other major festivals are drawing near, which has led to an active retail and catering industry.

In December 2010, construction business activity index and new order index all picked up slightly. The former reached 60.7%, and the ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points, which has remained above 60% since March 2010. The latter reached 52.4%, rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, and the index dropped to below 60% in the four quarter.

China Logistics Information Center analysis shows that in 2010, the construction business activities, driven by the rapid development of urbanization and early investment, have always maintained a more active development trend. Unlike business activities, the market demand of the construction industry has changed little and remained basically stable. In December, the construction industry's new orders index rose slightly, but remained at around 52%. In 2011, the major investment growth will slow down in varying degrees, especially under government led investment. Under such circumstances, the change of market demand in the construction industry in 2011 needs close attention.

Unlike the top three industries, the real estate new orders index fell to 50% below three for three consecutive months, reaching 45% in December, down 2.3 percentage points in the annulus. However, its business activity index fell 2.7 percentage points, but it still reached 50.3%, and it remained above 50% for four consecutive months. The analysis shows that the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market is developing towards the expected goal of national macro-control.

In addition, the intermediate price index reached 65.9% in December 2010, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points. From the perspective of enterprises' reflection, the proportion of enterprises due to the rising price of raw materials has returned to a more normal level. From the three industries, the price index of the intermediate input of construction and producer services has increased marginally, while the intermediate price index of consumer service industry has dropped by 1.9 percentage points, indicating that the current inflation pressure has not been further expanded.

However, China Logistics Information Center pointed out that from the present point of view, such factors as agricultural product price rise, labor cost rising and excess liquidity are still the main aspects of further pushing up prices in 2011, and stabilizing prices has become the top priority of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the late trend of the price of intermediate inputs.

China's non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index system consists of 10 diffusion indices: business activities, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, inventories, intermediate input prices, charging prices, employees, supplier delivery time and business activity expectations. Generally speaking, the index is above 50%, reflecting the overall rise or growth of the non manufacturing economy; below 50% reflects the decline or fall of the non manufacturing economy.