Three Internal And External Pressures Of China'S Economy In 2011

In order to achieve "inclusive growth", we need to take effective measures such as politics, economy, law, culture, ethics and other related fields as soon as possible so as to comprehensively control the problem of "income distribution inequality".

2011 is "

For example, the appreciation of the renminbi accelerated.

To this end, on the occasion of the new year, I would like to focus on sorting out the "three internal and external pressures" that deserve further attention and in-depth study: from the pressure of "turbulence" in the international monetary system, the pressure of "virtualization" of industrial capital and the imbalance of income distribution structure.

In my view, the biggest external pressure now is that after the financial tsunami, the US dollar led international monetary system is "fission" along with the US quantitative easing monetary policy and the "bad condition" of the US economy. "Global financial capital has long been uneasy to continue to put wealth in financial assets without" monetary anchor ", and even the amount of US Treasury bonds needed to avoid risks has been largely reduced by the market recently.

Among them, many financial capital should have disappeared in the "big wash up" of this bubble economy seemingly collapse, but because the US and European governments fear that the economic hard landing will bring pressure to the stability of the regime and go to the rescue at the expense of the original capital. These financial capital is reviving today.

Please note that this is the resurrection of "stock", which may not necessarily be the unscrupulous monetary increments in Europe and the United States, which are currently being blamed by the international community, which has a huge negative impact on us.

A significant devaluation of the US dollar will "wash" the value of US debt to China and increase the management cost of US dollar positions for new export investment.

Moreover, the relative scale of the RMB exchange rate appreciation will become increasingly difficult to grasp.

At last year's Canton Fair and many commercial forums, we have noticed that it is difficult for import and export enterprises to place orders, and the ability of enterprises to adjust themselves to exchange rate appreciation is also greatly reduced.

In addition, the weakness of the US dollar has not only contributed to the high gold prices, but also to our anxiety that a large amount of capital flowing out of the financial market is now starting to kidnap the upstream resources of industrial production. This means that the cost of our economy is becoming higher and higher in the developing countries where we are investing mainly in creating wealth.

China's trade structure reminds us that imports will also decrease as exports decrease, while the Sino US trade imbalance or the US trade deficit pattern will not change substantially.

In addition to the negative impact of the real economy, a large amount of capital flowing out of the European and American markets, coupled with the current cost of borrowing and borrowing, will become smaller and smaller due to the low interest rates in Europe and the United States. The scale of the outflow of capital will become larger and larger in the future, and the high savings, high growth and even low efficiency of the market will surely become the preferred target of the global financial capital.

Therefore, China's macro-control is facing tremendous pressure. Zhou Xiaochuan's recent "pool theory" is a prominent performance.

We must pay close attention to the us temporarily abandoning the impact of the "monetary anchor" function on China, as well as the "I oriented" coping strategy, including the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate.

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At present, the inflation faced by China's economy is not exactly the same as the previous inflation.

New content: because economic recovery and development mainly rely on the government's active promotion, a large number of industrial capital, especially private capital, has not been reopened because of the international stage of good business, but the new stage has no opportunity and conditions to exert its ability and is forced to "idle". On the other hand, although state-owned enterprises and central enterprises do not have liquidity constraints, their motives for pursuing business profits are no less than private capital. Although they have not changed to financial capital in batches, their scale of capital and private capital are not at a starting line. Therefore, the speculative risks they have repeatedly made in the financial market have caused unpredictable risks to the Chinese economy, which is no less than private capital. Inflation in the early 90s of last century was caused by a shortage of economy. Inflation in the first two years was caused by overheating, and the pressure we encountered increased this year.

Therefore, we should change the supporting mode of "blood pfusion" economic development as soon as possible, and create the market's vitality of "blood generating" economic development through continuous improvement of system construction and government's in place public services, which is a fundamental solution to the current structural expansion of China's economy.

The financial tsunami and the way of rescuing governments in various countries have increased the inequality of income distribution among regions, industries and strata. Although there are differences in degree, this has made the social foundation for governments to repair economic trauma very fragile.

No matter the US medical reform system or the reform of Japan's social welfare mechanism, there are unprecedented obstacles.

China is no exception. The development support in the central and western regions and the reform and adjustment of the income redistribution mechanism between the classes are all very arduous and complex projects, which not only take time but also require wisdom and conceptual innovation.

However, if we can not find effective ways of governance in time, the internal pressure of China's economic reform will continue to increase with the increasing inequality of income distribution.

Therefore, during the "12th Five-Year" period, in order to achieve the goal of "inclusive growth", it is necessary to come up with a set of effective measures to deal with the problem of "inequality of income distribution" as soon as possible, and this may involve political, economic, legal, cultural and ethical fields.