The Contradiction Between Supply And Demand Intensifies, The Exchange Rate Pushes Forward The International Price Of Wool, And The Wool Begins To Blow Up.

In 2010, China's wool textile industry was particularly eye-catching in the recovery of the world economy. In 2010 1~11, 4027 gross domestic textiles, woolen knitted and woolen textile enterprises completed the gross domestic product output value of 214 billion yuan, the growth rate was 24.63%, and the domestic sales value accounted for 75.63% of the industry's sales value. Customs statistics show that in 2010 1~11 months, wool textile raw materials and textile clothing entered. Exit The total amount reached 13 billion 200 million US dollars, an increase of 24.88% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of US $10 billion 300 million, an increase of 23.49% over the same period, and the total export volume has exceeded the level of the same period before the crisis. Imports of US $3 billion increased by 29.96%.

At the same time, domestic wool market The price reached the highest point in history. 2010 with the world Economics The recovery is getting warmer and inflation is coming quietly. The price of the international wool market has been consolidated in the first three quarters after the rise of the non US exchange rate. The fourth quarter is accompanied by rising prices of raw materials. The price of wool has reached new heights and reached the highest price in nearly 20 years.

Contradiction between supply and demand intensifies

Global supply of wool is decreasing. The supply of wool continued to decline in 2010. According to the data released by the International Wool Textile Organization (IWTO), the gross output of wool in the world was 1 million 99 thousand tons in 2009. As a result of climate change and the disparity in gross price margin and other reasons, the wool production of several major wool producing countries headed by Australia and New Zealand in 2010 continued to decrease. Some wool futures are not available, and some wool varieties are short or unable to deliver on time.

The deteriorating seasonal environment in Western Australia has led to a reduction in weight of wool. According to the latest prediction, the annual number of sheep sheared for 2010/2011 wool is expected to be 72 million 400 thousand, and the yield of fat bearing wool is 340 million kg, which is 2.3% lower than that of 2009/2010 wool.

2009/2010 wool annual Australian Wool Exchange supplies 1 million 887 thousand and 460 packets of wool, 6% less than that of 2008/2009 wool. Among them, the supply of 19 microns was reduced by 4%, the supply of 20 and 22 microns was reduced by 11%, and the supply of 21 microns was reduced by 15%.

The Australian wool Inspection Bureau 2010/2011 annual report shows that the total number of wool detection has decreased by 2.2%. Among them, the hairs were reduced by 3.9% and the hair of the side canes was reduced by 2.8%. As wool and meat increased, the gross hairs increased by 5.5%.

In 2010, the number of wool sheep in New Zealand decreased by 2.5% compared with that in 2009. Due to the poor climate in winter in 2010, many lambs were slaughtered in 7~9 months.

The supply of fine wool and medium wool and lambs in New Zealand decreased in 2010. Often no wool can be auctioned in the auction market. After ordering, some varieties need to be auctioned for several times to get enough boxes. The reduction of T86, T93 and T121 models wool is particularly prominent.

In the year of 2009/2010 wool, the number of sheep in Uruguay decreased by 6%, from 8 million 600 thousand to 8 million 100 thousand. The output of raw wool also decreased from 34 thousand tons to 32 thousand tons.

Global demand for wool is increasing. In the first half of 2010, the revival of the world economy became warmer and warmer, and China's wool market was booming. In the second half of the year, the wool textile industry in Italy and India was revival, and the international competition for wool became increasingly fierce.

Exchange rate pushing up international gross price

The exchange rate pushed up the gross price in 2010. As the US dollar continued to depreciate, the currency war between the non US dollar represented by the euro and the US dollar in the second half of 2010 made the currency of the producing countries continue to appreciate. In the fourth quarter, the Aussie dollar broke through the 1:1 several times against the US dollar. The rise of the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar pushed up the price of Australian wool and new wool in the international market, and led the global wool price to rise.

Australian wool Market

Australia, which exports mainly its resource products, was free from the economic crisis in 2010, thanks to the pull of China's economic growth. Whether the Fed's monetary policy, the sovereign credit crisis in the eurozone, the tense political situation on the Korean Peninsula, or the delay in the Australian government's election, did not affect the development of the Australian economy. On the contrary, these have become the combustion aids for the upward movement of the Australian dollar, and have stimulated them to draw the dollar and create a new historical high. In January 4, 2010, the international currency market, the Australian dollar to the dollar exchange rate opened at 0.8985, the lowest to 0.8081 (June 8th), the highest rose to 1.0229 (December 31st), at the end of the year to the highest point.

In 2010, nearly 80% of Australian wool was exported to China. The increase in demand for wool in China objectively promoted the stability of Australian wool prices. In the first three quarters, the Australian Wool Exchange composite price index, which was auctioned by the Australian Wool Exchange, remained unchanged at 870~920 Australian cents / kg. Since the fourth quarter, the rise of the Australian dollar and the delay in the new stock market and the surge in textile raw materials have contributed to the soaring price of Australian wool. In November 11, 2010, the Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX) auction index hit 1032 Australian cents / kg, and the dollar price was as high as 1036 cents / kg. The Australian dollar price has created a new high in the international market since the abolition of the protective price by the Australian government, and for the first time in history, the US dollar was higher than the Australian dollar.

In 2010, Australian Merino produced the largest increase in superfine wool. In dollar terms, compared with the opening price at the beginning of the year, wool with a fineness of less than 18 microns increased by more than 43%, and the increase of fine wool was more than 15%, while the fine grain of 21 microns increased by 8.39%.

New Zealand wool Market

New Zealand is the country with the biggest price increase. In 2010, New Zealand wool continued to benefit from the zero tariff policy of New Zealand Free Trade Agreement on New Zealand wool. The price of the New Zealand wool market has been on the rise. The new price and the US dollar price before the end of Christmas are 17.5% higher than that of the beginning of the year, and the price of fine crossbred wool has increased by 42.3%, and the price of coarse crossbred wool has increased by 66.2%.

In the currency war against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar did not show any weakness. The New Zealand dollar exchange rate for the New Zealand dollar opened at 0.724 in January 4, 2010, down to 0.657 at the lowest level (June 8th), and the highest appreciation to 0.797 (November 4th), ending 0.7575 at the end of the year.

South African wool Market

In 2010, the price of mohair in South Africa rose in the first half of the year and fell in the second half. In summer, the average market index of mohair broke through 100 RAND / kg, but it dropped to 70.85 RAND / kg in October. The last auction in 2010 closed at 85.88 RAND / kg, and returned to the beginning of the year.

Domestic gross price ride "helicopter"

In 2010, domestic raw materials for wool spinning were booming. Customs data statistics show that in 2010 1~11, China imported 301 thousand and 800 tons of wool, an increase of 3% compared with the same period in 2009. Among them, 239 thousand and 600 tons of imported raw wool, an increase of 2.6% over the same period, and 42 thousand and 400 tons of imported washed wool, an increase year on year.

16.1%, 13 thousand and 700 tons of imported wool, 18.9% less than that of the previous year, and 2463 tons of imported carbonized wool.

A year-on-year decrease of 33.5%. Imports of combed wool and waste wool increased significantly in 2010. Although the gross price of the international market is very high, the market demand is strong due to the normal operation of wool spinning in China.

In 2010, the wool market was booming and prices continued to rise. At the beginning of the year, the Nanjing wool market composite quotation index opened at 55.19 yuan / kg, closing at 68.89 yuan / kg, or 24.82%. The biggest increase is Merino superfine top. Australian raw wool, New Zealand wool, national wool and other varieties rose by more than 20%. {page_break}

There are 3 reasons for the rise in wool prices. First, with the recovery of the world economy, profound changes have taken place in the growth patterns and development patterns of various countries. This has brought a rare opportunity to the development of China's wool textile industry, and orders for exports and domestic sales are coming. The two is the international currency market exchange rate war, the US dollar continues to depreciate, the main hair country currency appreciation, in the fourth quarter Australian dollar exchange rate of the US dollar several times broke through 1: 1 price. Three is the textile raw material market, cotton is leading and chemical fiber is catching up. The price of domestic textile fiber is at a high price.

The price of domestic wool also increased by more than 30% compared with 2009. It is understood that in 2010, the purchase price of fine wool wool in Xinjiang, Gansu and Qinghai area was 18 yuan ~23 yuan / kg, and the purchase price of fine wool and wool in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China was 14 yuan ~18 yuan / kg.

In this price increase, the special animal fiber cashmere and Rabbit Plush also increased by nearly 80%. In early 2010, cashmere (no plush) was still at a lower price, less than 500 thousand yuan / ton. With the innovation and fashion of cashmere sweater products and the increasing demand of consumer market, the price of plush has risen sharply, and by the end of the year, it has risen to more than 800 thousand yuan / ton.

In the fourth quarter, cotton took the lead and plummeted. It took the lift, and the prices of many chemical fibers also declined, and the price of wool remained strong.

High price of wool will continue

2011 is the beginning of the national "12th Five-Year" and the transition period of China's wool textile industry. In the period of world economic recovery, there are many uncertainties. However, the price of wool market in 2011 is still determined by output, post - recovery consumption and exchange rate changes.

Global supply of wool may continue to decrease in 2011. The recovery of wool production in Australia and New Zealand, the main producer of wool, is expected to be rather remote. The "reverse reform" of China's fine wool has not stopped. The supply of wool in Uruguay, Argentina and South Africa is also very limited. The contradiction between supply and demand of wool will become increasingly apparent. With the revival of the global economy and the resurgence of inflation, the rising trend of commodities and textile raw materials and agricultural and sideline products should not be overlooked. In addition, in recent years, with the popularization of low carbon environmental protection concept, consumers are more and more inclined to use natural fibers.

The exchange rate is still the key to adjusting the gross price in 2011. In particular, the Aussie dollar, Australia's first economic crisis since the financial crisis, has been active in the international money market, and the Australian dollar has been relatively strong. By the end of 2010, Australia had been able to draw the US dollar closer to the euro. However, in 2011, the Australian dollar, which has been in the high position since the financial crisis, is facing the risk of commodity price bubbles. Economists predict that if commodity price bubbles burst, commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar, are likely to suffer a fatal blow. As a result, commodity currencies may oscillate in the first half of the year, and risk of a sharp fall in the second half.

Since the beginning of 2011, the price of Nanjing's wool market has reached a record high of all kinds of wool products. It can be predicted that gross price will remain hovering in 2011 as the supply of international wool market decreases and exchange rate changes.