Ye Tan: China'S Natural Enemy To Boost Domestic Demand Is Deprivation Of People'S Wealth.

In 2011, the deepening of China's economic structural pformation, China's economic reform and institutional reform are intertwined, and the whole industry is moving. The stimulants of investment and exports are gradually reduced, and the reform has entered a period of severe pain. The inflation caused by the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the low efficiency of the market will become more and more serious.

According to the research report submitted by the "93 societies" during the two sessions of 2010, the proportion of laborers' remuneration dropped from 39.7% in 1995 to 39.7% in 2007. The proportion of residents' income in GDP decreased from 68.6% in 1992 to 52.3% in 2007; the income gap between the highest income 10% group and the lowest income 10% group increased from 23 times to 23 times in 1988; while the consumption ability of middle and low income residents was generally low, the luxury consumption in China increased by 22% in the past two years.

China's initial distribution problem is that the wages of the workers are less than 10% of the cost of the enterprises. In the past two years, there has been a sharp rise in the number of workers, but the enterprises have not lighten the burden on the real economy. The redistribution is equally unfair. The typical one is the personal income tax. In the whole personal income tax, nearly 2/3 comes from the middle and low income families on the "threshold".

In other words, if the tax threshold is raised, there will be a 100 billion tax loss.

The three allocation is even more problematic. Charity becomes a monopoly market.

Do not blame the Chinese residents for not spending, but ask whether the government has given the residents the environment to relax their consumption. Instead of stimulating the residents who try their best to consume, we should introduce policies to foster effective consumption groups. We should not bind the economy to the car market and the property market, but we should develop the diversified service consumption varieties.

Consumption data can also be deceiving.

In July 29, 2009, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the second quarter macroeconomic report. The research shows that 66% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods come from the contributions of government and enterprises, while the consumption of urban and rural residents can only account for the remaining 34%.

Therefore, the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods is about 18% per year, most of which are contributed by the government and enterprises.

China is not consumed by no one, but more by the government in consumption and in the consumption of enterprises.

To boost domestic demand, we should rely on the rich and the people in the new round of urbanization instead of absurdly consuming government consumption instead of people's consumption. We should encourage people to spend more in advance with tax and fee incentive policies, and even cover up the general consumption shortage with abnormal consumption of luxury goods.

In 2009, because of the tax and fee incentive policy, the property market and car market consumption were at an unprecedented high level.

Short term stimulants can not have long-term effects, and the negative effects are enormous. If the stimulus policy is withdrawn, the car market will drop sharply, and the high housing bubble will increase the risk of China's economic high.

It is the right choice to cultivate new consumption growth points and effective consumption groups.

People who care about the Chinese economy can easily find that the focus of China's economic reform has been gradually inclined to rural areas in the past two years - from the agricultural land tax to Zhejiang and other places where the farmland is entering the market. The economic work conference of China once again proposed the supporting reform of the pfer of agricultural population, from urban employment to settlement, as the focus of reform.

China's urbanization rate has reached about 46%, and is in a critical period of urbanization.

International experience shows that the urbanization rate between 30%-60% is the golden age (1333.90,1.60,0.12%) for promoting the urbanization process. Therefore, the next 5-10 years will be an important period for China to accelerate the process of urbanization, and the urbanization rate is expected to increase by 10 percentage points to 55% -60%.

If in the process of urbanization, migrant workers can move from migratory birds to settlers, China's consumption can rise by more than 10 percentage points, and there will be room for future consumption expansion.

In the process of urbanization, the rural areas are allowed to go upstairs by the capital enclosure, which may form a new urban poor class. Chen Xiwen, director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, has repeatedly stressed the deprivation of farmers in the new round of urbanization.

If we can not boost the general consumption of residents, China's domestic demand can only rely on imports and investment, and now there are signs of lame.

If the demand of our country is not driven by the wealth of the people, and driven by investment and import, then the consumption of residents will drop sharply in the next few years, and the government's debt will exceed the financial affordability, and the taxes and fees will also rise steadily.

People are not rich, private capital has nowhere to go, and they are defeated in the collision with monopoly enterprises.

The private market is shrinking, and the monopoly and capital era will inevitably lead to widening gap between the rich and the poor. The vested interests lobby in all aspects, including tax reform, property tax reform, retirement system reform and so on, making China's tax and welfare system reform unable to solve the problem of the current distribution imbalance. Instead, it becomes synonymous with inflation. The low income class with annual protection of more than 1000 yuan may pay a higher price.

If reform is still unable to make breakthroughs in the use of rich people and the use of private capital, China's reform will become a repeat of the tragedy of Westernization Movement.

The criteria for the success of the inspection reform are very simple. It is not to look at GDP, not to look at fiscal revenue and expenditure, but to look at residents' consumption and prices. If residents' consumption falls and prices remain high, it shows that the reform fails, otherwise, it shows that the reform is successful.

China's natural enemies to boost domestic demand are right.