Many Experts Predict That The CPI Increase Will Exceed 5.5% In January.
In the light of the hot price issue of the Spring Festival, many experts predict that the CPI data in January will probably remain high, which may exceed 5.5%.
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China, said that rising prices during the Spring Festival is a normal thing and will rise every year.
But due to the high base point last year, prices will not drop during the Spring Festival.
Because of the prominent factors, the 2011
CPI
The high point will probably appear in the first quarter, and then will gradually decrease.
Cao Yuanzheng believes that in 2011, China's CPI was around 4.2%, showing a trend of high and low levels, and did not rule out a growth rate of over 5% in a single month.
CPI or more than 5.5% in January.
Deputy general manager, state Yuan Securities Research Center
Liu Jian
The price of the first quarter of 2011 will continue to rise, including the month of the Spring Festival.
First, the seasonal climate factors, China is in the northern hemisphere, the ice and snow caused the production of vegetables, pportation is more difficult, the natural cost is rising.
Besides, Spring Festival is a traditional festival for Chinese people. Demand is the peak season.
So the price of food will continue to rise in the first quarter.
The annual Spring Festival is up by 10%, and it will not be as high as 20%.
Ba Shu song, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that the first quarter should be a period of relatively high price rising pressure throughout the year.
At the same time, the central bank bills that are about to expire in the first quarter will be more than 1 trillion. After the fall of December, prices will still have room for improvement in 1 and February.
Ba Shu Song said that from 2011 to the whole year, the whole
CPI
It should be a trend of high and low.
Judging from the trend of last year, the three quarter should be a year-round high point, and the fourth quarter may return to 4%.
In the first half of 2011 and the second half of the year, the caudal factors were about 3% and 1.9%, respectively. In January and June, the caudal factor would be as high as 3.5%. Further consideration was given to the rising trend of CPI. The new price increase factor will also continue in the first half of the year. The whole year will be inspected, and the peak value of CPI in the two quarter of 2011 will probably be achieved.
Therefore, the pressure of monetary policy to shrink liquidity and manage inflation expectations is larger at this time window.
Liu Yuhui, director of the financial Key Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that based on the large CPI base last December and the new price increase factors, the CPI of January this year is expected to rise by 6% over the same period last year. CPI will remain high and around 6% when the Spring Festival comes.
The rising prices of agricultural products and vegetables are the main reasons.
Liu Yuhui believes that in 2011, the annual inflation rate must be more than 5%. A small increase in interest rates and an increase in the deposit reserve ratio will become the norm in 2011. The first half of 2011 is expected to raise interest rates by three or four times.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that although the high price point dropped in December, this did not mean that inflation pressure had been reduced in 2011.
Due to the strong momentum of rising agricultural prices, the increase in labor and resource prices, domestic liquidity and the continued depreciation of the US dollar and the promotion of commodity prices and other factors, the pressure of price rise in the first half of 2011 will continue to be greater. It is expected that some CPI will even exceed 6% in the first half of the year.
And prices will bear the brunt of the Spring Festival.
CICC released a report predicting that domestic inflation pressure will continue to rise in the short term, and CPI will be between 5.2%-5.5% in January, a record high since August 2008.
CICC said domestic inflation pressure will continue to rise in the short term. The possibility of high inflation in January will be very high. CPI will rebound to 5.5% and CPI will remain high in the 1 quarter.
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