Ni Jin Jie: After GDP Surpasses Japan, We Should Be Vigilant To Repeat Its Mistakes.

With the announcement of Japan's economic data, China's GDP scale has officially jumped to no doubt.

In fact, as long as we dissected the classification data of GDP, we can clearly feel that this "rush day" is of little significance.

According to the data of IMF, the per capita GDP in China is only $4300, and the per capita GDP is only 10% in Japan and the United States, excluding the 100 in the world. So far, there are still 40 million people who have not come out of poverty.

Moreover, the old people over 60 account for 12.5% of the total population of the country.

At the same time, the concentration of wealth is quite high, and the Gini coefficient has already exceeded the theoretical warning line, which makes the risk of China's economy falling into the "middle income trap".

In the past ten years,

Last year, the total GDP in China was nearly 40 trillion, the scale of fixed assets investment was as high as 27 trillion, and the investment GDP ratio was as high as 70%.

On the other side of the coin, private investment is in the doldrums, and the industrial heart has disappeared. More private capital is willing to drift away from the asset market in the form of hot money.

Doubling with GDP, the real estate bubble has spread to the most remote small town.

It can be imagined that without the credit blowout of the banking system and the enthusiasm of the local government to "generate money from the land", the Chinese economy will never exceed Japan in the short term.

So far, China is still at the lowest end of the global industrial chain. The consumption of resources and manpower in exports is much larger than that in the export. The energy resources consumed by the unit GDP are still at a high level, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure will take a long time.

After becoming the world's second largest economy, the Chinese economy should be more vigilant and repeat the mistakes of the Japanese economy.

Indeed, the economies of China and Japan share too much common ground.

To some extent, China has succeeded in replicating the economic development pattern of Japan. Export oriented and government led are the two magic weapons that Japan has rapidly emerged after World War II.

However, these two points also became the main institutional reasons for Japan's economic recession in the late 80s.

Although China has extremely rich factors such as population, land and energy, as well as low level of urbanization development, China's economy has a "stronger anti foam" capability, but now China's economy has long been contradictory, and all kinds of potential hazards are beginning to be exposed.

Today, the story of GDP accumulation and currency development is always the same, while inflation and bubbles are getting closer and closer to us.

All of these remind us that after the total economic volume becomes the so-called world second, we need to complete the biggest structural adjustment in 30 years from the root. If we are still obsessed with the existing mode, we should take "the"

This is not alarmist talk, but a simple logic of economic history.

Ni Jinjie (Visiting Fellow of the China Institute of human capital)