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Cotton Or Reappearance Of Waterfall Crash &Nbsp; Further Search For Pre Platform

2011/2/25 16:40:00 59

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The recent market weakness is expected, but 24, especially in the afternoon.

commodity

A straight line down is certainly more than the market imagined.

The main cotton in September dropped below 30 thousand in a short time, with a sharp increase of more than 30 thousand hand positions. In the same type of market, sugar also increased sharply in the same position. The rebar was similar, the three varieties were close to the 60 day moving average, or had fallen below the 60 day moving average. Some other products, especially agricultural products, such as corn, soybean meal and soybean oil, showed a sharp downward trend.

Yes

cotton

In the case of falling below the spot price for a long time and approaching 24 days or even below the cost price, we should look at the two markets from a dynamic perspective.

In particular, there are still no signs of stopping at the current market. Domestic cash is largely concentrated in the middle circulation, and the price has not been significantly reduced. This is also a dangerous signal, which indicates that the latter market will continue to fall, which may be triggered by the spot market.

But before, we have repeatedly stressed the particularity of this year: the high cost of spot purchase, the existence of an overall gap in the whole year, and the continued depletion of hidden inventories in the past few years. These factors will support spot business confidence in a certain period of time, but this is not always the case. Along with the passage of time, the textile enterprises will continue to buy with the market in late November, or the situation that the massive replenishment of stores is slow to find. The pressure on the mentality of middlemen and the confidence of hoarding cotton will also increase.

At the same time, it is impossible to explain the current phenomenon if the current cotton market is simply analyzed from the perspective of annual total resource supply and demand.

The author believes that the long-term supply and demand often give way to phased supply and demand. Precisely because of this, behind the fuse "the US cotton continuous limit", it has led Zheng cotton to drop sharply by 4700 points over the 5 day from last Friday's high level. The amplitude is more than 13%. The more important factors, besides the systematic deterioration of investment sentiment caused by the tense situation in some countries such as Libya and other Middle East and North African countries, there are abundant supply in the domestic spot stage, including the import cotton concentrates to Hong Kong, and the spot market is still concentrated in the middle circulation link.

Based on the above analysis, we believe that the 30 thousand pass can focus on the degree of support, but from the following

Short-term

Peripheral atmosphere and domestic spot business mentality, plus technical analysis, Zheng cotton next seeks 60 day average line support, and further looks for the pre 27000-29000 platform dense paction area probability.

Of course, we need to pay close attention to two factors for whether the market will fall again in the future. First, it is difficult to see whether the overall commodity will fall into a systematic decline. Secondly, the cotton spot market fundamentals, that is, the domestic spot market, presents a lot of selling behavior of hoarding cotton enterprises. Although there is a certain possibility, it is not likely to come before the end of the two quarter and the three quarter.