Guangdong: Retirement Time Or Extension After Ten Years

Guangdong provincial Aging Committee announces strategy for coping with population aging

　　 During the 2022-2042 years, the size of the working age population decreased rapidly.

During the same period, the scale and proportion of the elderly population continued to increase, and the social burden became heavier and heavier.

　　● Retirement age The delay can relieve the heavy social burden, and is also an inevitable way for the development of the aging society.

How will the aging society develop in the next forty years? Yesterday, the Eleventh Plenary Meeting of the Guangdong Provincial Committee on aging was held in the provincial government, and vice governor Liu Kun attended the meeting. The conference published the Strategic Research Report on coping with population ageing in Guangdong. It pointed out that the population size of the 15~59 year old group dropped rapidly after reaching its peak in 2021, and the social burden and the burden on the elderly were getting heavier and heavier. It is suggested that the retirement age at this stage be delayed to alleviate the heavy social burden caused by the rapid reduction of the working age population.

Vice governor Liu Kun revealed that the elderly population in Guangdong has reached 10 million 800 thousand, which exceeds 12% of the total population of the province. It is estimated that by the end of 2015, there will be more than 13 million and 60 elderly people in the province.

　 After 2022, population of working ages Rapid reduction

Last year, the Guangdong Provincial Commission on ageing commissioned a research group headed by Zheng Zizhen, a researcher at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, to carry out the strategy of population aging, entitled "development trend and strategic research of population aging in Guangdong". The meeting informed the outcome.

　 Demographic dividend will continue for several years.

Zheng Zizhen said that the next forty years in Guangdong can be divided into three stages: the first stage is 2011-2021 years, the slow change period of population aging, the second stage is 2022-2042 years, the rapid change period of population aging, the third stage is 2043-2050 years (60+), and the deceleration period of population aging.

"The first stage Ageing of population Entering the slow rising period, Zheng Zizhen said that the aging of population in the slow rising period means that the demographic dividend will continue to exist at this stage.

Zheng Zizhen said that in the 20 period of the second stage, the size of the working age population decreased rapidly. The population size of the 15~59 age group dropped rapidly after reaching its peak in 2021, with an average annual decrease of 1.10%. In 2026, the population size of the 15-64 year old group reached its peak, and the size of the working age population continued to decrease by 0.98% over the next 20 years.

Relative to the decrease in the working age population, the proportion of the elderly population and the elderly population continued to increase, and the ratio of old to small increased rapidly. The average annual growth rate of the elderly population size and proportion and the ratio of old to small were 60, 3.62%, 3.66% and 4.02% respectively. The elderly dependency coefficient and social dependency coefficient have increased considerably, and the social burden and the burden on the elderly have become increasingly heavy.

In the 2046-2050 years and more in the future, the changing characteristics of population aging can be summarized by decelerating growth in this stage, and the direction of change of indicators has changed from slow rise to slow decline.

Zheng Zizhen said that while Guangdong is improving the welfare of the elderly, it also needs to postpone the retirement age appropriately. Zheng Zizhen said that the delay in retirement age can not only alleviate the heavy social burden caused by the rapid reduction of working age population, but also an inevitable way for the development of an aging society.

For the extension of the age of retirement, the provincial experts' recommendations will refer to demographic dividend changes.