The First Quarter Inventory Of Listed Companies Amounted To 3 Trillion And 530 Billion &Nbsp, Causing Market Concerns.

According to statistics, as at the end of March,

In fact, the PMI data of manufacturing industry has been declining from 55.2 high in November last year, and the PMI data in April has dropped to 52.9. The risk of economic growth has fallen to the head of listed companies.

In April 30th, the 2010 annual report of listed companies and the 2011 quarterly report were officially closed.

Wind information statistics show that 2146 A share companies achieved net profit of 477 billion 629 million yuan in the first three months of this year, an increase of 25.44% over the same period last year 380 billion 752 million yuan.

But this seemingly bright report card still reveals a hint of worry.

Statistics show that as of the end of March, the book inventory of listed companies amounted to 3 trillion and 530 billion yuan, exceeding the level before the financial crisis, and refresh the record of the end of last year.

The stock market is starting to worry more and more.

Once the situation at home and abroad has changed, economic growth has declined and commodity prices have declined, enterprises are prone to slow sales and stock price declines, thus squeezing profits.

After the subprime crisis in 2008, the sharp decline in corporate profits is a lesson from the past.

Today, the macroeconomic situation is similar to that before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Similarly, high oil prices, high inflation and the complex external environment, will the listed companies repeat the mistakes of 2008?

Inventory continues to rise with CPI.

Wind information statistics show that inventory of listed companies has been climbing steadily in 2010.

At the beginning of the year, the stock was only 2 trillion and 350 billion yuan.

By the end of the first quarter of last year, it increased to 2 trillion and 560 billion yuan, and increased to 2 trillion and 820 billion yuan at the end of 6. At the end of September, it was 2 trillion and 970 billion yuan, reaching 3 trillion yuan by the end of the year, reaching 3 trillion and 220 billion yuan.

At the end of the first quarter of this year, this figure has reached as high as 3 trillion and 530 billion yuan.

After analysis, the reporter found that the speed of inventory increase or decrease of listed companies is closely related to CPI.

In the first quarter and the two quarter of last year, the stock added value of listed companies was 210 billion yuan and 260 billion yuan.

At that time, CPI was in the early stage of positive pformation: in November 2009, the CPI index for the first time turned positive after 8 consecutive months of negative growth, reaching a 3.1% high in May 2010.

In June 2010, CPI fell to 2.9% and increased to 3.6% in September.

In the process, the stock preparation of enterprises was also cautious. The inventory in the three quarter increased by only 150 billion yuan compared with the two quarter.

From October to now, inflation expectations in the market have increased, and CPI has accelerated, reaching 5.4% in March this year.

In the process, the listed companies continued to increase their stock. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the annulus value of listed companies increased by 250 billion yuan and 310 billion yuan respectively.

A private person pointed out that "buying up or not buying" is not just a mindset in the capital market. In real economy, many enterprises tend to have this tendency when purchasing raw materials and formulating production plans.

If we all judge that inflation will intensify and commodities will go up in the future, then we will buy raw materials in large quantities to reduce costs, and may increase production in order to get higher returns in the future.

If the economy is better, there is no doubt about that.

But at the same time, keeping high inventory is also associated with risks, because when the economy slows down or even falls, many enterprises are often unable to change their inventory strategy immediately because of inertial thinking, and even continue to increase their stocking due to misjudgement. The result is, of course, very sad: market demand is declining, products can not sell or prices fall sharply, and enterprises are easy to get into financial difficulties.

Warning: high inventories consume profits

In the expectation of high inflation, it is very similar to 2007~2008.

In January 2007, China's CPI index was 2.2% (year-on-year increase), followed by fluctuations, but the overall trend was higher month by month, reaching a high of 8.5% in April 2008.

Then began to go down, and accelerated in September 2008 after the subprime crisis, down to 1.2% in December 2008.

It is worth mentioning that the rise of CPI in 2008 and last year is closely related to international oil prices.

At the beginning of 2007, the price of NYMEX crude oil in New York was near $60 a barrel, and it soared to about $150 a barrel in July 2008. In December 2008, it fell to less than 50 dollars per barrel in the dark clouds of the economic crisis.

As the economy recovers, especially in the recent turmoil in the Middle East, crude returns to the top of $100 a barrel.

Before September 2008, the sound of crude oil hitting $200 a barrel on the market led to a surge in the prices of other commodities and CPI.

In this context, listed companies are also hoarding stock.

Statistics show that at the end of September 2008, the number of stocks of 1602 A share listed companies reached 1 trillion and 910 billion yuan at that time (Wind information data showed that, for example, the new listed company since then, the data was 1 trillion and 930 billion yuan, with little difference), which increased by about 478 billion yuan compared with the end of 2007.

The high inventory of Listed Companies in 2008 has led to serious consequences.

Even in the middle of 2008, the listed companies also maintained a good profit. However, after the outbreak of the subprime crisis in September, the stock that the enterprises had previously hoarded had a large area of unsalable sales, and the income was shrinking. In addition, the price plummeted. In accordance with the requirements of the accounting standards, the provision for impairment must be made in the earnings report, which eventually led to a huge loss of many listed companies in 2008.

Focus on inventory turnover

Will the listed companies get into trouble again because of high inventory?

An analyst at Xingye securities (17.72, -0.08, -0.45%) told reporters that inflation in the first half of 2007~2008 was different from the current situation.

The supply gap at that time was an important reason for the rise in oil prices and CPI, while the current inflation is more of a monetary phenomenon.

2009, in order to stimulate the economy in 2010, the world has been lowering interest rates and increasing loans, resulting in a flood of liquidity and pushing up commodity prices. The 3.39,0.02,0.59% industry has also loaned large amounts of loans.

At present, the central bank has been trying to control liquidity, and policymakers are no longer pursuing GDP growth while formulating economic development goals. Instead, they are turning to adjust the economic structure. In this way, high inventory of listed companies may face certain risks.

However, there may not be an extreme situation like that in 2008. "After all, the situation of internal and external difficulties in 2008 is relatively rare in history, and the whole world is not willing to repeat the mistakes of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008."

Another analyst said that from the perspective of financial analysis, the inventory problem of listed companies is still worth vigilance.

In 2010, the total operating cost of the more than 2000 listed companies in the A share market was 11 trillion and 890 billion yuan (excluding financial enterprises), and the average inventory turnover times were 3.69 times at the end of the year. The average inventory turnover times in the first quarter of this year were 3.64 times (annualized), which was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

In the 2008 financial crisis, the average stock turnover of listed companies remained at a 4.38 level.

Although the analysis of inventory turnover times is more complicated, the specific circumstances of each company are different. However, the slow turnover of inventory often means the increase of the occupation of inventory, especially in the context of tighter liquidity, which is unfavorable to the capital market of listed companies. Investors should pay attention to it.