Brand Clothing Stocks Get On The Market &Nbsp; Who Is The Next Seven Wolves?

Once upon a time, Seven wolves And the wedding bird is the scarcity of investment brand clothing stocks. However, as clothing Stock pile up list The search for Semir, costumes, and the upcoming nine herdmen will gradually enter the investor's perspective. Who has the advantage in the old "three swordsmen"? Who is most likely to stand out in the new army of clothing?

Veteran VS recruits brand clothing stocks "confrontation"

Although China's brand clothing market is still very young, it has split up in the A share market. On the one hand, the old clothing stocks represented by the seven wolves and the United States are working hard. On the other hand, the "epigenetic" represented by the search of Semir and others is already awesome. Compared with the 3 companies of the United States, the seven wolves and the wedding birds, what are the advantages and disadvantages of these new clothing stocks recruits in special, Hinur and nine Mu Wang?

Inventories in the US are very strong.

Thanks to the remarkable achievements of channel expansion in recent years, the continuous improvement of product design and brand marketing capabilities and the continuous improvement of terminal retail management in direct and franchisees, in the first quarter of 2011, the US apparel net profit increased by 1222.7%, exceeding market expectations.

With the United States and the United States is the brand of youth leisure clothing search special, its brand has the "tidal front". In the industry, the company pioneered the concept of "fashion going to the countryside", and designed and developed fashion clothes for three or four categories of cities as a strategic goal.

According to the statistics of China Textile planning and Research Association, the population of 15~29 in the three or four category of clothing market is over 281 million, which is the fastest growing area of brand clothing consumption. In the first quarter of 2011, the company achieved net profit of 32 million yuan, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. The company expects net profit growth of 50%~80% in the first half of 2011.

As of December 31, 2010, there were 1166 stores, including 128 direct shops, 1038 stores, and more than 80% distributed in the three or four line market. The company invested 360 million yuan to invest in marketing network construction projects, plans to lease or buy 42 stores, including 10 direct stores and 32 strategic franchises. Search for expansion in the future is still mainly based on franchising, and at the same time, it has gradually increased the coverage rate of Direct stores, and plans to add about 400 stores every year.

Although the search for special terminal coverage is not yet able to compete with the United States, its inventory burden is much lighter than that of the United States. Since the end of last year, almost all reports have worried about the problem of indigestion. In the first quarter of this year, due to the increase in new brand and new store distribution, the company's inventory amounted to 3 billion 163 million yuan, up 24.10% over the same period last year. The absolute value has reached a record high.

In contrast, inventories increased by 49.49% in 2010 compared with 2009. In 2010, the total assets of listed companies increased, making the share of total assets in 2010 dropped to 7.58% compared to the same period last year, much lower than that of the United States and 30%. From 2007 to 2009, the inventory turnover rate was 3.92, 3.43 and 2.90 respectively, showing a downward trend.

However, it should be noted that the sales cost surged in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 81.52% over the same period last year, which is higher than the increase in revenue. The main reason is that with the increase of sales revenue, the company has intensified its advertising efforts and the building of its sales team. By contrast, the US bond cost in the first quarter fell by 2.28 percentage points over the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease in the cost of sales.

The scale expansion of the wedding birds is in sight. The proportion of direct shop in the city is urgent.

They are both brand names, and they are also an interesting combination.

The birds are mainly engaged in the production and sale of the series of clothing products, such as wedding bird clothing, suits, shirts and so on. The leading market of the "good news birds" suits is the highest in the country. In the first quarter of 2011, the net profit of the company increased by 75.72% compared with the same period last year, and the earnings per share were 0.12 yuan. The product was concentrated in medium and high grade formal clothes, and net profit in the first quarter of 2011 was 34 million yuan, up 104.57% over the same period, which is much higher than expected. According to CITIC Securities, the company's annual performance is expected to grow by more than 40%.

As of December 31, 2010, the number of news bird's brand outlets increased to 715, and the number of St. John's fashion brand outlets increased to 141, totalling 856. In 2010, the number of shop owners increased by 108 over the same period last year, an increase of 17%. It is estimated that in the next 2 years, the number of franchising channels will continue to grow by more than 20%.

According to the announcement, the company decided to raise more than 1 billion 500 million yuan to invest in marketing network optimization construction projects. It will add 180 new bird shop brands and 100 St. Shen Wan predicts that in 2011~2013, the two brands will open about 100 stores a year.

By contrast, the proportion of Hinur's Direct stores is lower. By the end of 2010, the number of direct outlets and franchisees was 596, of which 569 were franchised stores, accounting for 95.47% of the total number of stores. Because of the high proportion of affiliate marketing network structure weakened the company's control over channel sales and reduced overall profitability, the company slowed down the expansion of franchised stores in the past two years and gradually increased the proportion of Direct stores. Prospectus shows that the company intends to raise 544 million 890 thousand yuan to invest in marketing network and information projects, and build 46 stores, including 10 flagship stores and 36 Direct stores.

However, in terms of inventory digestibility, the wedding bird has a slight disadvantage. By the end of 2010, the stock of the reported bird was 360 million yuan, accounting for 13.96% of total assets, representing a decrease of 5.76 percentage points compared with the same period in 2009. In the first quarter of 2011, the company's inventory dropped to 351 million yuan. By contrast, in the end of 2010, the inventory was 253 million yuan, accounting for 10.91% of total assets, down 12.35 percentage points from the same period in 2009. In addition, the company's stock turnover rate also increased, from 2.04 in late 2009 to 2.57 in 2010.

In terms of three cost control, he was obviously dominant. In 2010, the extension expansion led to an increase of 16% and 10.36% in the company's sales expenses and management expenses respectively. However, due to the substantial increase in sales revenue, the company's period cost rate decreased by 0.75%, and the sales expense rate dropped to 15.46%, which was lower than that of the wedding birds in the same period. {page_break}

Contend for terminal seven wolves nine Mu Wang expansion camp

Also positioned in the middle end of men's casual wear, the strength of the nine herd kings and the seven wolves is closer.

The seven wolves are the leading products in the domestic casual wear industry, and their products are positioned as men's casual wear. According to the China National Business Information Center, the market share of the "seven wolves" brand has ranked first in the country for 9 consecutive years.

The nine men's men's trousers and jackets are to be listed. According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, as of 2010, the total occupancy rate of the nine trousers Market was ranked first in the country for 11 consecutive years. The occupancy rate of the jacket Market ranked second in the country for 3 consecutive years, only behind the seven wolves.

Prospectus shows that in recent years, nine Mu Wang products continued to sell well, operating performance grew rapidly, profitability improved steadily, operating income and net profit continued to grow steadily. From 2008 to 2010, the annual compound growth rate of the business revenue was 16.68%, while the net profit compound growth rate was 36.55%.

Under the market environment of "terminal is king", these two strong enemies invariably regard the direct battalion terminal as the battleground of the army.

By the end of 2010, the number of terminal outlets of seven wolves increased by 276 compared to 2009, reaching 3525, of which 388 were direct and joint terminals. Over the same period, the expansion speed of direct and franchisees was 76% and 4% respectively, indicating that the intention of the company to shift its focus to the development of direct battalion was very obvious.

According to the data of the nine Mu Wang prospectus, by the end of 2010, the number of sales terminals had reached 2710, of which 645 were directly operated. In 2008 ~2010, the terminal compound growth rate reached 7.96%. In the absolute number and relative proportion of the direct terminal, the nine shepherd kings were higher than the seven wolves. Nine Mu Wang intends to use 80% of the 1 billion 650 million raised funds for the terminal construction of the marketing network. It is expected that 338 new stores will be built, including 162 Direct stores and 176 strategic franchises.

Apart from the expansion of channels, in the inventory digestion, the advantage of light assets of the seven wolves is very obvious. Reporters learned that, because the products of seven wolves were mostly bought out by dealers, the inventory was relatively low. As of December 31, 2010, the net inventory of seven wolves was 395 million yuan, accounting for 16.23.% of current assets. The company's inventories increased by 31.02% from the end of last year. The main reason is that the scale of the company's direct operation has increased, and there are more channels. Moreover, in 2011, there were more goods in the spring and summer stores, but still better than the average level of peers.

Similarly, as at the end of 2010, the net inventory of King Mu was 449 million yuan, accounting for 46.20% of the total liquid assets. At present, the larger net inventory of the company is related to the vertical integration of business and the more direct sales terminals.

In terms of cost control, the cost rate of the nine herd king is increased. By the end of 2010, the sales cost of the nine Mu Wang was 389 million yuan and the management cost was 89 million yuan, of which the sales expenses increased by 20% and 42.7% respectively in 2010 and 2009, while the sales cost of the seven wolves increased by 7.6% and 24% in 2010 and 2009 respectively. Anxin Securities pointed out that the investment project of the nine Mu Wang will greatly accelerate the pace of its own large area shops, and the company is facing the risk of short-term asset turnover and the increase of the cost rate.

Holding three big swords, seven wolves listed for 6 years, the rate of return is nearly 400%.

If the US, bona, and seven wolf listed on the first day of buying and holding them yesterday, what is the rate of return? According to the revaluation, the rate of return to the US and the wedding birds is 70% and 122% respectively, while the seven wolves are far ahead of the 367% return rate, winning over 400 percentage points in the same period.

What are the tricks of the seven wolves?

Tactics 1: direct camp expansion and speed up

Having brand and channel is the two edges of brand clothing enterprises. At this point, the expansion of the seven wolves is highly efficient.

Statistics show that by the end of 2010, seven wolves had 3525 terminal stores, an increase of 276 compared with 2009, including 388 direct and terminal terminals, a net increase of 168 compared to 2009, and 3137 agents terminals, representing a net increase of 108 over 2009. In 2010, the number of direct routes for seven wolves increased by 76% compared to the same period last year, and the number of franchising channels increased by 4% over the same period last year.

By the end of 2010, the number of stores in the United States was 690, an increase of 32% over the same period last year, and the number of franchise stores reached 2969, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. Orient Securities believes that the total expansion rate of the birds in 2010 is around 17%.

In fact, because of the differences in the target consumers of 3 companies, their channel structure is also different. According to the CICC report, the lowest percentage of us affiliate joining is 76%, the number of reported birds is over 80%, and that of the seven wolves is 93%, which is second only to Semir's 96% and Hinur's 97% of the major listed brand clothing stocks.

The rapid expansion of seven wolves last year's direct operation will help future growth in performance.

In 2010, the business revenue of the seven wolves was 2 billion 198 million yuan, the direct income was 270 million yuan, and the direct income accounted for only 12%. In the same period, the United States had a total revenue of 3 billion 160 million yuan, accounting for 42% of the total revenue.

Can the seven wolves increase the proportion of direct income by expanding the direct channel and further increase gross profit margin?

"The seven wolves and the wedding birds are mainly franchising. The former locates the middle end casual wear, and adopts the provincial mode to pursue the scale growth, while the latter locates high-end suits, pursuing single store efficiency and gross profit margin." Clothing research fellow of an old brokerage firm said, "the proportion of direct business revenue is the embodiment of competitiveness of brand clothing dealers, because of the increase in gross margin and direct revenue growth. If the seven wolves can actively expand their direct business in the future, it is expected to promote structural transformation of income. In the past 1 years, the United States has slowed down the pace of expansion. "

Data show that in 2010, the gross profit margin of the US bond industry was 45.38%, an increase of nearly 1 percentage points over the previous year, a profit margin of 54.3% yuan, a 2.8 percentage point increase, and a seven percent wolf's lowest gross profit margin of 43%, but its growth rate reached nearly 4.7 percentage points. In this regard, the company said that the gross profit margin growth due to direct camp system construction, thereby increasing direct income and direct profit margin.

Chen Ping, a representative of the seven wolves securities affairs, told reporters that in 2011, the growth of the company's overall channel would slow down. The main reason was that the terminal was facing some pressure, such as rents rose. Under the present circumstances, there is a certain risk in speeding up the channel expansion. However, the company will develop steadily and gradually increase its channel share.

It is worth mentioning that in 2010, the net profit of seven wolves increased by nearly 39% over the same period last year. Over the same period, the net profit of the United States and the wedding bird rose by 25% and 31% respectively. Everbright Securities report showed that the compound growth rate of seven wolves was 3 in 33% years, slightly lower than that in the United States, while the reported birds were 31%. {page_break}

　 Trick two: high inventory turnover

High inventory turnover is another magic weapon for the seven wolves.

According to the annual report, as at the end of 2010, the stock of seven wolves was 395 million yuan, up 31% from the same period last year, accounting for 16% of the total assets. In the same period, the inventory of reported birds was 360 million yuan, accounting for 13.96% of total assets. In addition, because of the larger proportion of the direct investment, the US bond inventory reached 2 billion 550 million yuan, accounting for 30% of the total assets.

Although the inventory of the seven wolves is slightly higher than that of the wedding birds, the turnover rate of the stock is higher than that of the latter. In 2010, the stock turnover rate of seven wolves was 3.68 times, and the birds were 1.74 times. In general, the higher inventory turnover rate indicates that the less the company occupies, the stronger its operating capacity. In addition, over the past 3 years, the annual turnover rate of seven wolves has increased. In 2008 ~2010, it was 3.09, 3.47 and 3.68 times, respectively, and the birds were 2.39, 1.76 and 1.74 times respectively.

In addition to higher inventory turnover, the seven wolves were higher than those of the same period in terms of accounts receivable turnover and total asset turnover. In 2010, the two indexes of the seven wolves were 7.8 and 0.97 times, respectively, and the birds were 6.51 and 0.55 times respectively. In theory, the higher the turnover rate of accounts receivable, the faster the receivables are, the shorter the account age and the stronger liquidity of assets. The greater the turnover rate of total assets, the more enterprises will be able to accelerate their asset turnover and increase profits through small profits but quick turnover.

A brokerage industry researcher believes that the seven wolves inventory turnover rate is higher, and its affiliate agency mode. Because of the buyout relationship between companies and agents, the latter inventory can not be reflected in the reports of listed companies. Compared with the reports, the good news birds need to take more inventory.

In this regard, Chen Ping pointed out that the company's low inventory and high inventory turnover are related to the main business franchisees. At the same time, the company mainly focuses on direct orders, while the United States mainly relies on cash. It should be noted that the proportion of new products in different companies' inventory will also affect the inventory turnover rate.

　 Trick three: cost control

In terms of cost control, the seven wolves are also ahead of other brand clothing companies.

In 2010, the selling cost of the seven wolves was 323 million yuan, the management cost and the financial cost were 157 million yuan and -469.57 yuan respectively, and the three expense growth rate reached 9%. Compared with the selling birds, the selling cost is 208 million yuan, the management cost and the financial cost are 164 million yuan and -644 yuan respectively, the three expense growth rate is 11%, the US federal sales expense is 1 billion 989 million yuan, and the three cost growth rate is close to 40%. Reporter calculation found that in 2010, the three rate of the seven wolves was 22%, the United States was 32%, and the wedding bird reached 29%.

What is interesting is that in the 2010 sales revenue of the seven wolves, the sales cost accounted for nearly 15%. According to its sub item data, the top 3 are advertising expenses, decoration cost amortization and staff salaries in turn, of which advertising and advertising expenses are 127 million yuan, accounting for 6% of business income. In 2010, it accounted for 16.5% of the sales fee.

The king of nine herd is expected to stand out.

Who is most likely to take the seven wolves' "mantle" in the new IPO and upcoming IPO, and become the next high-quality leisure men's suit?

　　 Closest to the seven wolves

Before answering which company is expected to become the next seven wolves, we must know which company is closest to the seven wolves.

A clothing dealer researcher told reporters that both Semir and costumes are located in youth casual clothes, comparable with the US state. Hinur and the wedding bird are both casual suits. Jomoo Wang Ding is located in the middle-aged men's casual wear, which is closer to the seven wolves and more comparable. In addition, Chen Ping, the representative of the seven wolves securities, also said that among the brand clothing stocks that are now on the market and coming to the market, the closest to the company is the nine herdmen.

Reporters found that the end of December 2010, the number of direct and franchise terminals was 2710, of which 645 were direct battalion and 2065 were joined, and the terminal compound growth rate reached 7.96% in 2008~2010. From this point of view, the number of straight battalions of nine Mu Wang was 24%, which was nearly 13 percentage points higher than that of the seven wolves. In addition, from the point of view of direct battalion income, the proportion of direct revenue of 2010 was 36%, which was 24 percentage points higher than that of the seven wolves.

In addition, from the inventory data, as at the end of December 2010, the stock amount of 449 million yuan, including 70 million 600 thousand yuan of raw materials, 340 million yuan of inventory goods, and 28% of total inventory assets. In the same period, the inventory of seven wolves was 395 million yuan, accounting for 16% of total assets. In addition, the inventory turnover rate in 2010 was 1.9, lower than 3.68 times in the same period.

In terms of cost control, in 2010, the sales cost of nine Mu Wang was 390 million yuan, accounting for 23% of the business revenue, and the management and financial expenses were 105 million yuan and 332 thousand and 300 yuan respectively. According to this calculation, the three fees of the nine herd kings are close to 30%, which is 22% higher than that of the seven wolves. In addition, the biggest proportion of selling expenses with the seven wolves is the difference of advertising expenses. The largest proportion of sales expenses in 2010 was wages and welfare, and the proportion reached 29%.

However, on the two indicators of net interest rate and gross profit margin, the king of nine herd has the upper hand. According to the prospectus, in the first half of 2010, the net sales rate of nine Mu Wang was 22.26%, which was nearly 10 percentage points higher than that of the seven wolves, and the gross profit margin was 37.53%, which was 14 percentage points higher than that of the seven wolves.

　 Valuation equivalent

For a new stock to be listed, its valuation is critical. What is the result of the valuation of nine Mu Wang compared with the seven wolves?

According to the announcement, the issue price interval of 20~22 was 31.84~35 yuan, corresponding to the post earnings ratio of two times. However, according to the 2011 EPS0.86 yuan forecast of China Merchants Securities, the PE of the nine herdmen should be 23~25.6 times that of 2011.

According to the seven wolves, China Merchants Securities forecasts that its EPS will be 1.34 yuan in 2011. If it is calculated according to the closing price of 34.79 yuan on Thursday, it will be 26 times that of PE in 2011, slightly higher than that of the price limit issued by the king.

Debon securities industry researcher said that the close proximity of nine herd king and seven wolves is very high, but there are also some differences. For example, the product of nine Mu Wang is more inclined to trousers and jackets, and the products of seven wolves are richer. In terms of channel, King Mu is more flat and can control the terminal better in the middle and long term. It is estimated that after the listing of King Mu Wang, 50 new outlets will be added this year. In the end, the vertical integration of the nine Mu Wang could have more advantages in cost control, because its production and manufacturing costs accounted for only 10%.

Whether or not the king will exceed the seven wolves will need to be observed after listing.