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"One Day Tour" Market To Strengthen The Gem Rebounding Technology Color

2011/5/26 8:54:00 56

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This Wednesday,

Gem

The day before the end of the "Jedi rally" ended, it returned to the downtrend and fell by 3.28% on a single day.

Analysts believe that whether from the current macroeconomic background or from the valuation level of gem, the gem downlink space is not.

This Tuesday, the sharp rebound in gem or more from the technical overshoot rebound, and can not change the overall weakening of the gem index situation.

foam

Still searching for the bottom.

Yesterday, the gem index did not continue the strong rebound on Tuesday, again heavy volume fell, down to 3.28%, closed at 842.35 points, almost all the previous trading day rebound.

From the standpoint of index, yesterday's growth fell almost all of the results of Tuesday's "Jedi rally".

In fact, although the gem index staged a good reversal on Tuesday after a record low of 828.50 points, and made some investors feel that they were "dying to die" after the gem, the rebound of the gem index on Tuesday was due to the technical rebound after its overfall and the catalyst effect approved by the gem ETF, which is more of a game full of speculation rather than a value investment concept based on a reasonable valuation level.

From a valuation point of view, the current whole gem

P / E ratio

(TTM overall law, excluding negative values) was 45.72 times, and the market price ratio (overall law) was 3.59 times.

Although the current market price earnings ratio of gem is at a relatively low level, the history of the growth enterprise market, which was born in October of 09, is not long enough, and at the beginning of its growth is accompanied by a rich "bubble". Therefore, being at a "historically undervalued level" itself does not have the real reference meaning, and at best, it provides a good excuse for the next speculation.

According to statistics, from 2008 to 2010, the composite growth rate of gem net profit reached 38.4%. If we calculate the PEG index which is more appropriate for the valuation of growth stocks, if we assume that the reasonable value center is PEG=1, then the overall price earnings ratio of the gem should be 38.4 times. In other words, if we do not take into account the weak market confidence and the poor macroeconomic expectation, the gem index should have a 15% decline.

Chen Jiahe, a securities strategist at XinDa, points out that, from the perspective of PB, the overall market rate of the gem is 3.59 times, but if we exclude the huge amount of over raised funds from GEM companies, the gem's real market rate may be as high as 8-10 times.

Therefore, it is too early to say that the growth enterprise market is at the bottom.

Interestingly, according to the trend of this year's gem index K-line chart, since March 15th, the gem index has begun to go downstairs in an orderly way. In March 28th, it stepped down the first tier ladder, and stepped down the two tier ladder in April 25th. From May 23rd to yesterday, the gem appears to be stepping down the three level ladder, during which the growth of GEM has dropped by 23.94%.

From the cumulative decline, the gem does seem to "fully" release the risk.

The question is, how can we know when the bubble is blown up and how valuable it is when the bubble is broken?

At least for now, the "low valuation level" can serve as a powerful argument to support the decline of the CSI 300 index, but it can never be a reasonable explanation for the bubble.

The gem will continue.

The original intention of the gem is to provide more convenient financing channels for SMEs and create a normal exit mechanism for venture capital.

At the same time, the establishment of gem is also regarded as an important means for China to readjust its industrial structure and promote economic reform.

But in practice, gem has highlighted more and more investors do not want to see the phenomenon.

The "three high" phenomenon of the IPO issuance of the gem and the huge "super fund" lie in the bank's "sleep", executives' collective resignation cash and executives' "stock gods" emerge in endlessly.

In addition, when the launch of gem is in full swing, another group of "familiar" companies choose to list on NASDAQ in the US.

Even though its price earnings ratio can not enjoy premium premium in China, the creative and public oriented Internet companies still choose to go on the other side of the ocean, which has made most domestic investors lose the chance to invest in more excellent enterprises.

Needless to say, NASDAQ does have more sophisticated rules and regulations, more rational investors, and a natural attraction to Internet Co. However, we must not neglect that some rigid standards in the issue of gem have formed an insurmountable threshold for this type of company.

Chen Jiahe said in an interview that at present, China's gem issuance management system is based on the audit system. Although it is more responsible for the investors in the initial stage of the capital market, because of its relatively gradual incremental growth in the performance of listed companies, the auditing standards are relatively simple, which makes many companies such as Internet Co unstable but highly growing companies unable to participate.

At the same time, some companies wishing to list on the gem can increase their performance before the listing by means of accounting, but the consequence is often that the growth of the company is lower than expected after the listing, which is also one of the sources of the growth enterprise bubble.

In a word, the bear market is now paying the debt for the lack of rationality of the issuance system and excessive speculation and speculation. Only when the gem is washed up, will the truly valuable company emerge.

It is foreseeable that the process of going out of the gem will be repeated. After the natural elimination of the market, the final winner must be an investor who is mature enough and holds a firm value investment philosophy.