Scholars Talk About Macroeconomics: Five Years Later, Or "China Crisis"

On the eighth Shanghai derivatives market forum sponsored by the Shanghai futures exchange, three famous economists, such as Wahson, Li Xunlei and Sun Mingchun, talked about macroeconomic and policy trends.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, said that in June, CPI will reach a peak of 5.7%, and then it will fall down gradually.

Li Xunlei: maybe only once in the second half.

Judging by domestic inflation, Guotai Junan Securities chief executive

Based on the judgment of inflation, Li Xunlei thinks that China's

Wahson: the economy urgently needs to realize "urbanization pformation"

Wahson, the famous economist and President of Yanjing Huaqiao University, believes that the rapid growth of China's economy in the next 20 years, -30, is assured and fundamental. However, the current China's economy needs to be adjusted urgently.

The biggest structure of China is unreasonable, that is, the irrational structure of urban and rural areas. The biggest pformation is the pformation of urbanization, which is not mentioned in the first place at present.

The main task of China at this stage is not the construction of new countryside, but the construction of new cities.

Hundreds of millions of people leave the countryside and enter cities every month on a large scale every month.

At present, urban planning is the primary task to deal with structural pformation, and this task has not been mentioned so far.

This requires China to make a comprehensive plan for a series of new cities or cities that are not yet prosperous, because only this kind of planning can reduce the cost of urbanization.

Whether China's economy can grow at a high speed depends on whether it can reduce the cost of urbanization.

"China is basically not prepared to achieve urbanization.

To achieve this readjustment and make structural adjustment and economic pformation, we need to make fundamental and significant institutional changes to the two yuan economic system, land system and household registration system.

Wahson said.

Sun Mingchun: five years later, or now "China Crisis".

Speaking of "China's economy in the next ten years", Sun Mingchun, managing director of Hongkong capital and chief economist of Greater China, said: "in the next five years, we are very optimistic about China's economy, and the Chinese miracle that has lasted for more than 30 years will continue.

Five years later, that is, from 2016 to 2020, we feel that there is a very large probability of the so-called "China Crisis". From then on, the Chinese economy will become another economy, not a high growth economy.

Sun Mingchun predicted that, according to nominal GDP, that is, when the exchange rate was converted, China's economy could become the world's largest economy by 2020, that is to say, within ten years, China would surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.

At that time, China will become the world's second largest consumer, the world's largest exporter and importer; the renminbi will become one of the international pillar currencies and one of the international reserve currencies; Chinese enterprises will usher in gold for ten years, and Shanghai will become an international financial center.

However, from 2016 to 2020, China's investment will plummet, thus leading to the "China crisis."

Sun Mingchun believes that in the next five years, China's investment will also increase rapidly, because there are four trillion subsequent investments, affordable housing investment and so on.

But from 2016 to 2020, China's manufacturing based growth model is hard to maintain sustainable development. At that time, the growth model of the manufacturing industry suddenly flameout, and all the infrastructures are proved to be excessive, so the Chinese economy will not be able to grow very high.

Source: Shanghai Securities Daily