Insight Into China'S Future Business Prospects

The world is adapting to the new order of the multipolar world.

The first ten years of twenty-first Century, the more open global

In this multipolar world, China, which has become the second largest economy, has become the main force of world economic growth.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, at present price, China will account for more than 10% of the world's GDP share in 2013.

China's total economic output is expected to exceed that of the United States by 2030, and the Chinese economy is expected to maintain a sustained growth trend.

Thirty years ago, almost no one could foresee that China would integrate into the global economy at such a rapid pace.

In 2000, only 8 enterprises in mainland China, Taiwan and Hongkong entered the Fortune 500 list. In 2010, only 39 enterprises in the mainland of China became the 500 largest in the world. In 2010,

Since 2007, Accenture has embarked on a series of research on China's outstanding performance enterprises, trying to deconstruct the programs and elements of Chinese enterprises in the thirty years of market experience.

The research finds that many enterprises in China are already in the forefront of the world in terms of scale, but there is still a long way to go for becoming an excellent performance enterprise.

Accenture research has also found that no matter how much of the world's economic crisis has been swept away by the big waves, how much uncertainty the global economy will be full of, the core cornerstone of outstanding performance enterprises has never wavered.

The ability of enterprises to understand and grasp market focus and positioning is particularly prominent. Enterprises must advance one foot into tomorrow, win in the future, develop unique organizational capabilities and cultivate deep performance information.

China is coming to an end in the era of rapid growth of low cost and export driven. The long-term accumulation of high energy consumption, low production value, ecological destruction and interregional imbalance has already seriously threatened the sustainable development of China's economy in the future. The cost of core productivity elements such as raw materials, land and labor has increased. The problems of climate change, Global trade imbalance and exchange rate are intertwined, which pose new challenges to the government's macroeconomic regulation and control policy and the strategic choice and decision-making of enterprises. At the same time, the emergence and application of new technologies worldwide have narrowed the gap of competition, and the ability of independent innovation and talent competition has created new opportunities for enterprises.

Changing the growth pattern, achieving inclusive growth and sustainable development will become the main thrust of China's vision for the next five years. The Chinese enterprises and the Chinese society who are undergoing profound changes must be able to see the main forces that will affect this aspiration in this context.

Based on our series of studies on the multipolar world and China's outstanding performance enterprises, we believe that there are five main forces that constitute the basic context of China's economic growth, which will shape and shape China's business prospects in the coming years: globalization, urbanization, new technologies, green economy and balanced development.

These five forces have their respective priorities, but closely related, affecting the future economic and industrial structure of China, and promoting enterprises to carry out double changes in terms of strategy and operation.

Globalization

Globalization is the biggest development background of China today.

China's economic activities and enterprise operation can not be divorced from the background of globalization.

In the planning and brewing process in 12th Five-Year, policymakers regard the future global market as the most important consideration, and enterprises must have a new understanding of the new trend of globalization, and formulate competitive strategies under this framework.

Over the past thirty years, China's economic development has benefited from globalization, and it is the result of China's active participation in the global economic division of labor.

Accenture's 2010 Chinese enterprise globalization survey showed that 89% of the surveyed Chinese enterprises indicated that they had launched global business.

With the expansion of economic scale and influence, Chinese enterprises have gradually pformed into the main stakeholders and promoters of the globalization process, and have more capabilities to acquire resources, assets, technology and talents in the global market.

In 2009, China's overseas direct investment has exceeded 70 billion US dollars.

However, the multinational corporations in developed markets still occupy the commanding heights of the global business system. Their ability to control and integrate the global industrial integration and value chain can not be shaken. Their core competencies in R & D, technological innovation, talent, brand and marketing are still dominated by the multipolar world. The globalization of Chinese enterprises has just begun.

Chinese enterprises are seeking to enhance their position in the global value chain, but this process needs to be accumulated.

Globalization is a continuous process. Enterprises usually need to go through the initial stage, export oriented or value chain optimization stage and the evolution stage of globalization operation stage.

To achieve globalization, Chinese enterprises should take into account both the strategic and operational aspects of the scale and status of overseas businesses, and must have the capability of global management and operation.

Over the past few years, overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises often cause waves.

Overseas mergers and acquisitions can help companies quickly acquire assets, but it does not mean that they can immediately enhance their capabilities and create value.

According to Accenture's analysis of 150 mergers and acquisitions in the world of over 500 million dollars, only 17% of the pactions made obvious returns, 33% created a small amount of value, and more pactions ultimately failed to create value for the acquirers.

Because of the tradition of corporate governance, cultural and communication problems, the challenges of overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises are even more arduous.

The formulation of globalization strategy is directly influenced by the purpose of globalization, the capability of enterprises and the competitiveness of the industry.

Because of different industry characteristics, capabilities and needs, the strategic priorities of different enterprises are different.

The Chinese enterprises that are seeking global development under the pressure of domestic market should focus their efforts on building overseas marketing networks and integrate global resources with cost advantages. The strategic choice of enterprises that optimizes operation links and extends value chains as the main goal of globalization is to pfer them to the high-end value chain through R & D and innovation; and some enterprises that have already been in the forefront of globalization should focus on optimizing the global layout and further enhancing the capability of global operation.

On the basis of globalization strategy, enterprises need to build a suitable global operation mode to provide support for the implementation of strategy.

The global operation mode includes five elements: leadership, personnel quality, organization structure, process and technology, and performance appraisal system.

A successful global operation mode requires the above five elements to cooperate with each other, and achieve a balance between the soft and hard elements. At the same time, the globalization strategy of the enterprise should conform to the local market environment and achieve globalization on the basis of localization.

Globalization can provide greater development space for Chinese enterprises, but also bring more competition challenges and market risks.

Only when more Chinese enterprises integrate into the globalization process and withstand the test of globalization and become truly globalized enterprises can Chinese economy enhance the ability to withstand and deal with all kinds of uncertainties and become the protagonist of globalization.

Chinese enterprises must have a deep understanding of the connotation and development trend of globalization, make the right choice in the strategy of globalization, constantly upgrade the ability of global industrial layout, resource allocation and operation management, and finally make themselves truly a global business enterprise.

Urbanization

To create a huge and prosperous domestic consumer market is the key to China's pformation of its economic development mode.

The proportion of Chinese residents' consumption in GDP has not risen or fallen in the past ten years, just 34%, much lower than the average level of the middle income countries in the world.

In the three wagons of consumption, investment and export that drive economic growth, consumption is the least contributing factor, and it is also the main area that policymakers are committed to changing the pattern of economic growth.

Promoting urbanization will directly promote the expansion of domestic demand, change the demand structure, and become a new driving force for China's sustained economic growth.

China's urbanization rate has increased from 20% in the initial stage of reform and opening up to 45% now.

However, compared with the urbanization rate of about 80% of developed countries, there is still a big gap.

From the perspective of the urbanization process in the world, the urbanization rate from 36% to 60% is the acceleration period of urbanization.

If the goal of 65% urbanization rate achieved by the state is achieved by 2030, it means that 30 million people will be settled down from the rural areas in the next 20 years.

Such a large-scale urbanization process is rare in history, not only for China's economic development, but also for the Chinese way of life and the form of civilization development.

Urbanization means that more employment must be created, and the proportion of service industry in the economy will be greatly increased. At the same time, a large scale middle income stratum can be created to make it the mainstay of consumption and the main body of civil society.

How to adapt to the process of urbanization in China and create and utilize the opportunities is also a proposition that enterprise strategy can not ignore.

First, urbanization will stimulate the huge demand for new urban infrastructure and residents' service facilities; secondly, urbanization will pform large numbers of rural residents into urban residents, which will inevitably lead to a large number of rural labor pferring to the second and third industries, which means large-scale adjustment of the industrial structure. Third, because of changes in the working environment, living environment and lifestyle, the consumption contents of hundreds of millions of new residents entering town will also change, and their potential consumption demand will be released unprecedentedly.

But at the same time, urbanization will also pose a great challenge to a series of problems such as social security, energy consumption and supply, and environment.

The construction of social security system and the improvement of medical and health facilities are all necessary conditions for accelerating urbanization.

Resource scarcity, climate warming and environmental protection will restrict the future urbanization process to varying degrees.

Therefore, urbanization must be based on the concept of harmony.

Harmonious urbanization is to ensure that the process is fair, efficient and sustainable under the protection of the legal system.

In the process of urbanization, we can achieve harmony between man and man, town and country, government and people, human and nature, society and economy.

Harmonious urbanization needs to be promoted from the three dimensions of society, economy and environment.

Urbanization is a long-term trend of Chinese society in the future. It will also bring enormous development opportunities to enterprises while changing the social and economic features of China.

Real estate, building materials, home appliances, road traffic, steel, household appliances, retail, automobile, education, catering, entertainment and many other industries will benefit from urbanization.

Enterprises will become an important stakeholder in the process of harmonious urbanization. How to create social value and social benefits should be considered in the following three aspects:

First of all, enterprises themselves should act on the low carbonization operation, innovate and optimize the production and business processes, and make good use of new technologies to do well in energy conservation and emission reduction, and become an enterprise that runs through the operation of enterprises through the concept of sustainable development. Secondly, we should understand the impact of harmonious urbanization on the industry trend, and pform them through active innovation and R & D to suppliers of low carbon products, services and solutions, create value through services; third, we must deeply analyze and understand the emerging urban middle class, study the consumption behavior and demand characteristics of this group, and creatively meet their consumption needs.

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new technique

The economic history since the industrial revolution shows that almost every large-scale economic crisis will promote new technological revolution.

After missing the three technological revolution in nineteenth Century and the 20 half of the world and entering the second ten years in twenty-first Century, China is facing the opportunity to create new technologies and lead new technologies.

China has identified technological innovation as the strategic goal of national development.

In 2006, the Chinese government formulated the national science and technology development strategy for 15 years, aiming to enter the ranks of innovative countries in 2020, and enhance the capability of independent innovation as the strategic basis for developing science and technology, and strive to reduce the dependence on foreign technology from 60% to 30%.

By 2015, Chinese researchers and engineers will surpass all other countries. By 2020, China's investment in R & D will account for more than GDP of the EU.

In 2011, China will spend $153 billion 700 million on R & D, up from $141 billion 400 million this year.

This year, the number of patent applications in China is even expected to surpass that of Japan.

New technology and innovation are necessary conditions for maintaining sustained economic growth in the future.

A global survey by the Accenture joint economist information department shows that business growth is more closely related to innovation than operational efficiency, and innovation is the main driving force for profitable growth.

Thanks to the continuous investment and efforts of the government and enterprises, China has already developed internationally competitive R & D and innovation systems in some industries, and also has emerged world-class enterprises. Many years of infrastructure investment have provided first-class supply chain infrastructure, and the diversification and scale of China's manufacturing industry and the new large middle class consumer market have created an internal demand for innovation.

In the next five years, global technological innovation and industrial revolution will continue to promote the rise and development of new industries and the pformation of global industrial structure.

The government has also made great efforts to develop seven strategic emerging industries including energy conservation, environmental protection, new energy, new materials, biomedicine, biological breeding, information and new energy vehicles from the perspective of strategic development.

Under such a macro background, Chinese enterprises should pay special attention to the development and promotion of new technologies that will have far-reaching effects on the overall economic structure, business environment and rules of the game.

Information technology: information technology has created global prosperity in the past twenty years and promoted economic globalization.

In the foreseeable future, information technology will continue to be the main business driving force.

The development and application of information technology represented by cloud computing, social networking, mobile technology and remote sensor technology will have a significant impact on many aspects of the operation of enterprises: first, they will redefine and expand the size and market area of the customer base; secondly, it will facilitate the monitoring and management of business processes, facilitate the optimization of processes, improve operational efficiency and improve the speed and quality of decision making; thirdly, promote information sharing and collaboration among upstream and downstream parties in the industrial chain, and make the game between manufacturers and consumers develop in a more conducive way to consumers, thus creating a shock to traditional business models; fourthly, the application of these technologies will further exacerbate the globalization of market competition.

New energy and environmental protection technology: at present, China's energy consumption is almost the same as that of the United States, and the total amount continues to increase. The proportion of traditional fossil fuel supply and carbon emissions will remain the main force in the next 50 years, and the pressure of energy supply and environment is very severe.

Energy supply and carbon emissions have become the core issue of China's sustainable development and require China to gradually change its future energy structure.

The new energy technology will be the commanding height of the national competitiveness in twenty-first Century. It includes renewable energy, smart grid, clean water, conventional clean energy, clean pportation energy and green building. The six sectors are interrelated and influenced.

China has become the largest investor in new energy technology investment. It has already ranked the top of the world in the field of renewable energy input. The development of independent new energy technology has great potential not only in commerce but also in the past.

New material technology: the important breakthroughs of new material technology in the future will be the continuous upgrading of traditional materials. Meanwhile, all kinds of new materials will be mature and applied. New energy information biomaterials, nanomaterials and biomimetic materials will not only be displayed as progressive product changes, but the development of this field will have a wide impact on many industries and generate new industries and business opportunities.

Biotechnology: from the current point of view, the impact of biotechnology is mainly in the pharmaceutical and health sectors, but it has great potential to expand in a wider range of fields.

The development of systems biology theory and application technology system will help to develop new biomass resources and explore ways to provide technological support for biomass resources development in the future for new energy and new materials, agriculture and food, nutrition and health, ecology and environment.

In the future, with the integration of biotechnology and other related technologies, its impact on many important industries will be revealed one by one.

New technological innovation needs to be nurtured and developed in the innovation system. Innovation and leading development and application of new technologies require Chinese enterprises to create a set of effective processes and mechanisms for technological R & D and innovation management within the organization, and take the road of independent innovation to form the core strengths of enterprises.

Green economy

The era of rapid growth of China's economy mainly relies on low cost and export driven is coming to an end. Over the past thirty years, a series of problems, such as high energy consumption, low production value, ecological destruction, and regional imbalance, have been accumulated for a long time, which has seriously threatened the sustainable development of China's economy.

As the second largest carbon emitter in the world, the Chinese government has promised that by 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40%-45% compared to 2005, and the proportion of non fossil energy to primary energy will reach 15%.

Therefore, in the case of increasingly tight supply of resources and increasingly severe environmental constraints, the extensive growth pattern in the past will be difficult to sustain.

It is a major challenge for Chinese government and enterprises to pform from a high energy consumption, high pollution to a resource saving and environment-friendly green economic mode.

Green economy is a new development mode in nature. It is a new development mode based on the constraints of ecological environment and carrying capacity of resources, and takes sustainability as an important pillar.

Specifically, this development mode includes the following points: first, environmental resources should be taken as the internal elements of social and economic development; the two is to achieve sustainable development of the economy, society and environment as the goal of green economy; and the three is to "green" and "ecological" the process and results of economic activities as the main content and way of green economy.

The green economy contains rich contents and broad market prospects. It involves green energy, green industry, environmental protection industry, information industry and so on.

In many aspects of the green economy, China is basically in sync with the rest of the world, and some are still in the leading position.

For example, in terms of solar energy, nuclear power and so on, China is at the same time as the world; China has been at the world's leading level in terms of high-speed rail technology, and the current number of high-speed rail network kilometers is longer than that of other countries in the world.

For enterprises, green economy is not only a social responsibility but also a chance to exploit new sources of profit.

If we can integrate the concept of green economy and sustainability into enterprise strategy and daily operation, enterprises will gain new business opportunities and competitive advantages.

balanced development

The economic development model pursued by China over the past 30 years has also contributed to the rapid growth of the economy, which has also led to an imbalanced state of China's economy.

This imbalance is manifested in many aspects of economic relations: investment and consumption (too dependent on investment and insufficient consumption), export and domestic demand (re export and domestic demand), scale and quality (emphasis on the scale of economic growth and quality), speed and Sustainability (emphasis on economic development and sustainability), low value chain and high value chain (competitiveness is limited to the low end of the value chain, high end shortage), economic development and environmental protection (economic development is not fully considered for environmental protection), and imbalance between regions, especially between the eastern coastal areas and the less developed western regions, and between urban and rural areas.

The Chinese government has included the concept of inclusive growth into the economic development strategy of the next five years and in the longer term, aiming at solving the problem of unbalanced development.

It is foreseeable that in adjusting the imbalance process, production factors and resource prices will also be adjusted, and will have a significant impact on macroeconomic and business operations.

For a long time, China's production factors and resources prices, such as labor, land, capital, water, electricity, coal and other prices are at a relatively low level, which to a certain extent prompted Chinese enterprises to adopt an extensive way to carry out economic activities, but also led to Chinese enterprises lack of motivation to carry out technological innovation and investment in energy saving and emission reduction, thus impeding the adjustment of economic growth mode.

In this sense, in order to promote the pformation of enterprises and China's economy to the green economy, production factors and resources need to be priced through the market, so that their prices can be returned to normal level step by step.

In recent years, China's labor costs have been on the rise, which can be regarded as a signal for the adjustment of production factors and resource prices.

It is certain that this adjustment will help to optimize the allocation of resources, promote enterprises to further improve management and speed up technological innovation, reduce excessive consumption of resources and energy, and promote structural adjustment and sustainable economic development.

In the next five years, the adjustment of production factors and resource prices will be further expanded.

This adjustment will lead to changes in the environment of enterprise investment and operation, and costs and profits will be redistributed in different industries and at different links in the value chain.

For example, balancing the relationship between investment and consumption will lead to changes in the cost of capital and changes in the expectation of return on investment. Sustainable development requires government, enterprises and related parties to increase investment in factors such as risk management, corporate reputation and social responsibility that affect sustainable development. In order to balance economic development and environmental protection, we must change the current distorted resource price system, and compare the price of resources such as water, land and energy for re regulation and adjustment.

At the same time, the impact of economic activities on the environment, such as carbon emissions, will also be re priced.

The readjustment and rebalancing of these production factors and resource prices will have a profound impact on the economic structure and industrial layout, and on other relevant parties of the government, enterprises and economic activities.

Whether policymakers or business decision-makers should be sensitive to the balance of these economic relations and their impact on future industries, enterprises and regional development.

Enterprises should realize that the balance of economic relations and the adjustment of production factors and resource prices will lead to changes in finance, finance and other economic policies, and will also change the direction of flow of capital and resource market. These changes will inevitably affect the strategy and operation of enterprises.

We are in an era of rapid changes in internal and external environment. Enterprises must realize that the thinking and business models that have helped us succeed or are not enough to cope with the changes of the competition pattern in the next five years, the new environment needs new capabilities of enterprises.

It is possible to identify the main trend of development, constantly adapt to the changes of the environment, and adjust the enterprise strategy and management behavior in time, so as to establish an advantage in the future market competition and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the enterprise.