June CPI Innovation High No Suspense &Nbsp; The NDRC Said Price Control In The Second Half Of The Year
The highest value of the whole year and the new price increase were strong, and CPI was not optimistic in June.
On the 22 day, the national development and Reform Commission said publicly that the overall price level in June this year will be higher than that in May.
This means that CPI will hit a 35 month high.
But the NDRC also said that in the second half of the year, due to the rapid fall of the tail factor, the new price increase factors will continue to be contained, and the CPI growth will fall at a high level, and the price of the whole year will run in a controllable range.
In fact, the CPI in June was higher than that in May and has already been formed in the market.
Guotai Junan's report predicts that the CPI growth rate in June will reach a high of 6.2%.
Galaxy Securities, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank and many other agencies expect CPI to reach about 6% in June.
There was no suspense on the CPI innovation in June, but the price of live pigs continued to rise in recent years, plus the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
Drought and flood disaster
The market is worried about the price trend in the second half of this year.
In response, the head of the price department of the national development and Reform Commission pointed out that due to the rise in the general price level in the second half of last year, it had a great impact on the end of this year. This is the main reason for the higher total price level this year.
In the second half of the year, it is expected that the tail factor will soon fall back and the new price factors will continue to be contained. "CPI growth will fall at a high level, and the price of the whole year will run in a controllable range."
According to the recent monitoring of food prices by the National Bureau of statistics, the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, many vegetables have risen in different ranges, especially meat and aquatic products.
However, people of the NDRC pointed out that the current price of pork is in a reasonable range from the later trend, and that pig farmers are more motivated to fill the barriers and increase the latter market supply.
Porcine price stability
。
Moreover, the recent drought and flood natural disasters have limited impact on China's agricultural production.
Grain price
The possibility of a sharp rise is also very small.
"Since the beginning of this year, the new price increase factor is also increasing, but the trend of the rise of the ring price rose from 1 to 1% in February and 1.2% to 0.1% in -0.2%.
This shows that all policies and measures to stabilize prices in the country are gradually playing a role, and the momentum of the rapid rise in prices has been curbed to a certain extent.
People from the NDRC pointed out.
The NDRC pointed out that the current price increase is international.
Under the influence of a series of policies and measures, the momentum of the general price level rising rapidly has been restrained to a certain extent.
At present, China's CPI growth is lower than that of other developing countries and emerging economies.
Hu Naiwu, Professor of economics at Renmin University of China, believes that the high inflation point will appear in the second quarter, and then will stabilize on the basis of a slight decrease.
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