Spinning And Clothing Listed Companies: In The First Half Of The Year Slightly Outperformed The &Nbsp; The Consumer Sector Is Promising For A Long Time.

[editor's note]

Fashion and capitalization penetration

Capital and fashion always go hand in hand.

The largest luxury group in the world today --

In June, international famous Samsonite and Prada listed on the Hongkong stock exchange for a heated discussion. It is reported that Burberry and COACH will follow closely.

They all hope to leverage the Hongkong capital market to accelerate the layout of Asia, especially the Chinese market.

In China, the capital strength of textile and garment industry has also been unprecedentedly active in recent years.

According to our latest statistics, the listed companies in the industry (including footwear and fur) landed at Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange have reached nearly 100.

In addition, a group of funds, venture capital (VC) and so on, also threw out "olive branches" for many well qualified brands, some hoped to inject capital, and some even expressed willingness to purchase.

The international and domestic markets have proved that capital strength can not be avoided in the process of making a brand group bigger and stronger.

For those leading brand enterprises that have already been listed, the desire to become bigger and stronger and achieve internationalization will be stronger in the next 10 years or even 20 years. Several brands with international competitiveness and temperament will also be formed.

In this process, capital will play a more and more important role in mergers and reorganization.

For a number of brands that originally had certain advantages, for example, some designer brands in women's clothing, with more and more internationally known two or three line brands entering the Chinese market and competition becoming more and more intense, with the competitive advantages of a number of successful listed companies in China, the competition of the first generation of entrepreneurs and brand founders is gradually becoming old and unable to give brand new vitality. In the future, if they want to avoid being squeezed out of the market, if they want to make the brand not in the predicament or even disappear due to the founder's old age, are they going public? Is the brand selling or not?

The solution of these propositions will ultimately depend on capital.

Against this background, since July 1st, the "financial line of sight" and "special economic vision" have been newly opened.

The "mid-term examination" inventory of textile and apparel listed companies

In the first half of the year, slightly outperform the consumer sector, long-term optimistic about {page_break}

The listed companies of textile and garment sector maintained a steady growth momentum in the first half of 2011.

Data show that in the first half of this year, the textile and garment sector fell 4.9%, slightly outperforming the market, ranking ninth of the 24 industries.

Among them, the textile sector also achieved a positive return of 0.76%, while the performance of the clothing sector was inferior. The first half of the year fell by 9.02%, which was weaker than the market trend.

Taking a look at the development of the whole industry, this year's sharp fluctuations in international cotton prices did not hurt the textile and apparel listed companies. Instead, the international export environment improved, and the domestic consumer market grew rapidly.

Agencies are optimistic about the future performance of textile and apparel listed companies, but it is generally believed that the trend of plate differentiation will become more obvious, and the competitiveness of leading shares will be further strengthened.

The overall operation of the industry is stable, and cotton prices will return to "double-edged sword".

As a key factor affecting the industry, cotton prices fluctuated in the first half of this year.

Beginning in March, cotton prices continued to fall.

China's cotton price 328 index reached a peak of 31241 yuan / ton in March, followed by a downward trend, and dropped to 24508 yuan / ton in June 17th, which has dropped 22% compared with the previous year's high.

The decline led to the downward trend of the price of raw materials in the industry, and the gross profit margin of upstream manufacturing enterprises also decreased.

Typical such as Phoenix Bamboo Textile (600493), according to the 2010 annual report data, the gross profit margin of the company was 16.348%, while the gross profit margin in the first quarter dropped to 13.127%.

State Securities believes that before the stabilization of cotton prices, the entire textile and garment industry is hard to return to normal. Taking into account the new cotton listing, industrial chain operation and national policies in October, the State Securities believes that the future price of cotton will fluctuate at around 20 thousand yuan.

On the other hand, the fall in the price of raw materials has also contributed to the operation of the textile and garment retail enterprises.

With the reduction of cost pressure, the gross profit margin of related enterprises has improved steadily, and the continuous expansion and upgrading of the consumer market has promoted the rapid growth of sales volume of retail enterprises.

Meng Jie home textiles (002397) achieved a 58.24% increase in business revenue in the first quarter. In addition, in the semi annual report, Meng Jie home textiles expects 1 to June net profit growth of 30% to 50% over the same period last year, increasing the possibility of hitting 1 billion 200 million yuan in the annual operating income target.

From the perspective of the entire textile and garment sector, the cotton price drop still has more advantages than disadvantages.

Data show that most of the domestic textile and apparel listed companies exceed quarterly expectations, and most of the companies in the plate are "red".

But there are also people in the industry who believe that when the price of cotton is stable, whether sales growth can continue to rise is still doubtful.

Exports are basically oriented towards good cost pressures.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June 10th, the total value of China's imports and exports was 1 trillion and 401 billion 790 million US dollars from 1 to May this year, an increase of 27.4% over the same period last year (the same below).

Of which, exports amounted to 712 billion 380 million US dollars, an increase of 25.5%.

Traditional commodity exports grew steadily, of which clothing was 51 billion 290 million dollars, an increase of 23.1%; textiles 37 billion 550 million dollars, an increase of 31.5%; footwear 15 billion 130 million dollars, an increase of 21.7%.

CIC issued a report that the main reason for the substantial increase in export volume is that domestic export enterprises have been raising their export prices in the environment of rising raw material prices and rising labor costs. As the price of export products has been increasing every month, the export prices have increased considerably, resulting in a substantial increase in export volume.

Guoxin Securities Economic Research Institute believes that labor costs and RMB exchange rate and other factors are gradually easing, and the export environment of the textile industry is gradually improving.

In addition, from the above data, we can see that the export of textile and clothing products has maintained a high growth trend, especially the export growth rate of textiles continues to be higher than that of clothing exports.

In the two tier market, the main textile companies lead the whole sector.

For example, the export accounted for 37.20% of the main business income of 002034, the stock price from the beginning of the 11.26 yuan, the highest rush to 29.50 yuan, strong performance.

Xiong Xiaokun, a light industry researcher at CIC, pointed out that after the financial crisis, the demand for the international market gradually picked up, and the export trade of China's textile and clothing products was positive.

However, due to the rising cost of raw materials and shortage of labor in China's textile industry, subsequent development will face certain challenges.

In particular, the labor price of the textile and garment industry in Vietnam and Pakistan is only 1/3 of China, and the cost advantage is very obvious.

In fact, the first quarterly report of the color spinning leading enterprise huffu color textile (002042) shows that Huafu textile revenue is 1 billion 413 million yuan and net profit of 98 million 840 thousand yuan, respectively, up 61.73% and 33.81% respectively, and the performance is super expected.

But the management cost of the company increased by 114.51% as compared with the same period last year.

Xiong Xiaokun said that textile as a labor-intensive industry with low added value and winning by quantity, the rising cost of manpower will seriously restrict the development of enterprises. However, those clothing enterprises that produce fine processed products, have high technology content and have a certain brand awareness will be relatively less affected.

Policy worries "lingering" listed companies difficult to "sleep"

According to WIND information data, in April this year, the volume of textile and garment sector turnover was 9 billion 894 million, compared with 40.2% in March, and 7 billion 488 million shares in May, a decrease of 24.31% compared with April.

Recently, the rumors of economic restructuring, tighter capital volume, appreciation of the renminbi and the reduction of export tax rebate rate are the fundamental reasons for the flaunt of the textile and garment sector.

In fact, although the plate trend in the first half of the year has outperformed the overall market, the textile and apparel listed companies are facing the pressure of macroeconomic regulation and control such as raw materials, energy, capital and exchange rate. There are still many uncertainties in the development of the industry.

In terms of raw materials, cotton price volatility has always affected the cost control effect of listed companies.

In terms of energy, along with the implementation of policies such as strengthening environmental protection and reducing energy consumption, and adding temporary measures such as summer sluice and power restriction, the production efficiency of listed companies has been discounted.

In terms of capital, the central bank has decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from June 20, 2011, and the reserve ratio has been raised sixth times this year.

At the end of 5, the RMB deposit balance of 76 trillion and 730 billion yuan is calculated, the deposit rate will be directly frozen 383 billion 650 million yuan.

The "money shortage" brought about by regulation and control will inevitably affect the scale of bank lending, and also test the capital chain of textile and apparel listed companies.

The rising cost of borrowing has brought more pressure on the performance of listed companies, especially textile listed companies.

Exchange rate, from June 20th to 1 yuan to the central parity of RMB 6.4696 yuan, the continued appreciation of the RMB has been constantly reducing the export profits of textile and garment enterprises, making domestic enterprises face greater pressure in the competition with Southeast Asian textile and garment exporting countries.

In addition to the above factors, a more direct negative factor is the export tax rebate to reduce rumors.

With the beginning of the export tax rebate node in early July, the industry rumors that the export tax rebate rate of textile and clothing will be reduced from 16% to 11%, which will keep stock prices of listed companies under continuous pressure.

In particular, the profits of small and medium enterprises in the plate will shrink dramatically and the risk of performance will rise.

Although this rumor has not yet been verified, in the two tier market, it is the "sword of DAC Moss" hanging on the textile and apparel stocks.

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Division of industry, uneven heating and differentiation of stocks

In the first half of the year, the market performance of textile and garment industry was sharply divided by the sharp fluctuations of the market. As a result of the earlier accumulation of larger gains and the sharp rise in raw material prices, the textile and chemical fiber sector performed poorly, while the clothing and home textile plates basically absorbed the cost pressures and the difficulties of terminal raising prices, showing a relatively prominent performance.

Since the beginning of this year, the internal differentiation of the textile and garment industry has intensified due to rising costs and the appreciation of the renminbi.

The listed companies that have integrated industrial chain and efficient supply chain integration capabilities have further expanded their market share, especially textile leading companies and clothing listed companies, which are highly respected in the two tier market.

For example, Meng Jie home textiles (002397), the stock price center from the beginning of the 35 yuan to the current 41 yuan near, much sought after by the capital.

In the two tier market, the United States apparel (002269) is a typical representative of the clothing sector.

According to a quarterly report, the net profit of Smith Barney apparel in the first quarter was 202 million 979 thousand yuan, up 1222.70% over the same period last year.

The company said that in recent years, the terminal retail management capabilities of direct and franchisees have been continuously improved, and the number of terminal stores has increased steadily.

Gross profit margin is expected to rise steadily in the first half of 2011, and net profit in 2011 is expected to increase by 600%-900% over the same period last year.

Similar to the American Apparel, Semir clothing (002563), operating income and net profit in the first quarter increased by 30.24% and 27.83% over the same period.

Li Yun, a researcher at the securities industry in the capital of China, believes that the leisure and apparel listed companies represented by the United States and the state costumes have a larger space for growth and a wider audience.

Similarly, state clothing is also favored by the fund. At the end of the first quarter, the ten largest shareholders in circulation share 7 million 221 thousand and 100 shares.

In contrast to the "vigorous and vigorous" of the clothing and home textile plates, the performance of the textile and chemical fiber sector is increasing.

Jin Feida (002239), the main garment accessories and woven knitted fabric, declined 14.31% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, while the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company dropped by 78.08%.

The main reason for this is that the cost of fabrics, exchange rates and employment has risen rapidly, and the company's customer orders have declined.

As a matter of fact, the division of textile and garment sector is gradually intensifying.

In the context of high raw material prices and high labor costs, brand listed companies with market bases have passed the cost through measures such as raising prices, new brand strategies and optimizing product mix.

Production listed companies are highly sensitive to costs, limited in bargaining power, and difficult to improve their performance, which is even more difficult to be favored by market funds.

The listing and financing boom is on the rise again, and the road of textile and garment enterprises is still long.

The road of listing of textile and garment enterprises is not so smooth.

In May 6, 2011, the SFC issued an application audit for Zhuhai's Limited by Share Ltd IPO.

In addition, the Shandong sulang costumes Limited by Share Ltd and Shanghai Piri Swiss apparel Limited by Share Ltd, which had not been listed before, have been approved or cancelled by 3 enterprises in the first half of this year, accounting for half of the companies in the textile and garment industry. IPO

And the 3 textile and garment companies that were going to be Zhejiang Semir apparel Limited by Share Ltd, nine Mu Wang Limited by Share Ltd and Jiangsu Lukang Polytron Technologies Inc respectively raised 2 billion 56 million 170 thousand yuan, 1 billion 647 million 340 thousand yuan and 267 million 100 thousand yuan respectively.

Judging from the reasons for the failure, the regulatory authorities are more concerned about the continuous profitability of listed companies.

In addition to the lack of continuous profitability and uncertain growth, there are also problems of excessive reliance on tax preferences and subsidies, related party pactions and competition among IPO.

Taking the case of Li Rui, who did not pass the IPO examination, the proportion of Japanese exports to Japan's business income reached 19.38%, 44.94% and 64.35% respectively, and its dependence on the Japanese market increased year by year.

With the gradual negative effects of the earthquake on the Japanese economy, the operating environment of the company will change significantly, which will adversely affect its sustainable profitability. This has become one of the important reasons for the failure of IPO.

From the point of view of listing motives, textile and garment enterprises are mainly concentrating on expanding production capacity and marketing network construction.

In the prospectus, he pointed out that the company will invest 540 million yuan to invest in marketing network construction projects, and build flagship stores and 46 Direct stores.

It is estimated that the remaining 37 outlets will be completed in 2011.

85% of American fundraising apparel funds are used for shops (channel terminals), and 15% for investment in IT platform to build B2C network channels.

And Kaiser shares (002425) will be invested in 23 new self financing marketing networks, and its expansion will also be based on self purchase stores.

From the post market share price trend, by the new issue of "three high" (high issue price, high P / E ratio and high raise ratio), the first day breakage of listed textile and apparel stocks is more common.

For example, the new stock market search (002503), Jiaxin silk (002404), Luen Fat share (002394) and so on the first day of listing are all in a state of breakage.

In addition, from the business situation of post marketing enterprises, the expansion of terminal channels is faster and the marketing network expands. But at the same time, with the growth of new store opening costs and the decrease of single store benefits, the industry has doubts about whether the investment funds of textile and apparel listed companies are "making the best use of their products".

Huaxia Securities analyst Lu Yang has said that the listed companies of textile and clothing should combine their own resources and advantages to decide the direction of investment and specific projects.

Taking a look at the entire textile and garment sector, the plate fell 4.9% in the first half of this year, slightly outperforming the market, ranking ninth in 24 industries, and the performance is basically in line with market expectations.

Due to the rising price of raw materials, the income of textile listed companies increased significantly in the first quarter, but the gross margin did not increase significantly.

The sales volume of clothing listed companies has not increased significantly with the growth of terminals. Among them, how to increase the number of terminal channels to increase business revenue will be the main problem that the enterprises need to solve in the second half of the year.

And men's clothing and home textile companies, which rely on gross margin to boost their performance, have exceeded market expectations.

In the second half of the year, the textile and garment sectors need to pay attention to the economic slowdown and the impact of the CPI downlink on consumption. With the continuous weakening of the market, the undervalued value of the plate has built a good margin of safety, and a number of securities companies have issued the report to give the "recommended" and "neutral" rating of the plate.

However, in terms of specific strategies, the industry is more optimistic about the "short and vigorous" listed companies, which are relatively new industries, small companies and high growth companies.