Nylon, Rise Hard?
Price of nylon raw materials in July
The rise is fierce.
However, the price of nylon yarn has always been in an awkward position: the rise of silk price is far behind that of raw materials, which led to the loss of many factories. Until August, the price of raw materials dropped slightly and the price of silk was raised.
Profit space
。
At present, nylon FDY-70D/24F is near 33000 yuan, 40D/12F is around 35000 yuan, nylon DTY-70D/24F is near 34000 yuan, 30D/10F is about 39000 yuan, and nylon POY-86D/24F is 31000 yuan.
It rose by 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis:
1, cost.8 raw material prices began to fall in the beginning of the month.
By the end of August 16th, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market was around 28000 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.
The slicing price is more stable. The mainstream domestic conventional spinning chips are quoted at about 28900 yuan, and high speed spinning is about 29500-30000 yuan.
Although the price of raw materials is slowing down, it is worth noting that the supply of caprolactam in China is still tight. In 9-10 months, there is a more intensive device overhaul. There is not much stock in the business, and the intention of shipment is not very obvious.
On the other hand, influenced by the anti-dumping case of caprolactam, imports will also decrease.
Therefore, the price of caprolactam will be relatively stable in the short term, but it does not exclude the possibility of a slight drop. In the long run, if there are no other negative factors, it will be within the scope.
amide
There will be room for further increase in prices.
2, the supply side.7 months, nylon yarn manufacturers can say that they experienced "four faces": cost pressures, lack of demand, financing difficulties, frequent power rationing.
Many factories have reduced the operating rate, and some factories have even stopped working and overhauling. On the whole, the rate of operation is basically maintained at around 75%.
In terms of inventory, recent sales of nylon civilian silk have improved slightly, and stocks began to slow down.
In terms of capacity, Wujiang Asia Pacific textile company added 144 new nylon filament production lines in July, and is expected to be put into operation in August.
3, demand side.
Inflation
The impact of China's textile industry as a whole is slowing down.
According to the Statistics Center of the China Textile Industry Association, from January to May, China's textile and clothing exports slowed down by 0.85 percentage points from the January to April export growth rate of 27.05%, and the increase in export prices was an important factor supporting the rapid growth of exports.
As far as the nylon filament market is concerned, the price of raw materials is strong enough to keep its price high, and the gap between them is more and more obvious, especially in the market competition.
In addition, the tight macroeconomic policy is the financing difficulties of enterprises. According to the statistics of Zhejiang Provincial Commission of credit, 56% of SMEs believe that the difficulty of loans exceeds that of last year.
According to the results of the Zhejiang Provincial Federation of industry and commerce, banks usually carry out 30%-50% lending policies for small businesses with a benchmark interest rate of two times that of the bank's benchmark interest rate.
Outlook for the future: in terms of the price of raw materials, the price of raw materials is tight and the price is easy to rise and fall. Although the cost pressure has been buffered in the short term, the expected increase in the long term is relatively large and is expected to remain unchanged.
Maintain raw materials
Push up market.
In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers started to maintain low positions, and demand remained quiet.
Generally speaking, the bad factors of nylon industry are more than favorable factors, and the market of nylon filament is not optimistic.
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