When It Meets "Made In China"
In June 17th, I was listening to a dialogue between three expert experts at the palace of the Ministry of foreign affairs, the former headquarters of the Ministry of foreign affairs and the former headquarters of the Ministry of foreign affairs.
An expert from the Institute of economic research asked Professor Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, O, that China's urbanization will grow from 37% to 50%. In the future, more than 300000000 people will enter the cities. What will it mean for them?
Luis Bingeri Rosa, a professor at COPPE and UFRJ, replied that China and its population are huge and their development tends to be westernized. This is a problem. Our exports to China are mainly minerals, and the Chinese government is building low rent housing, which will require more steel and iron ore demand. In addition, the demand for our forests and soybeans is also great.
At this time, UFRJ, a vice minister, joined in and said: it should be said that massive investment in China is welcome, especially for energy. The problem is that it should be more than just limited to these products. If there are other investments, it will not cause more problems to the development of the company.
This dialogue contains several messages: a few years ago, China bought ore and soybeans from China. In the midst of the financial crisis, Brazilians once thanked China for saving it and saying "it is an interdependent relationship". But now how has the tone changed completely?
China is the largest foreign direct investment country and the largest export destination country. China's trade has been surplus for several consecutive years. Why did it incur such complaints? This dialogue reflects the general views of Brazilians, especially the intellectual elites, on bilateral trade and investment. The import "made in China", export resource products and the quality of Chinese investment are all on this list.
What did China do? Why did Brazilians?
When it meets "made in China"
Ricardo Zerrenner opened a photo studio at Monte Cristo railway station, a famous scenic spot, selling his own photography. He told me that there was nothing in his body that was made in China, or even batteries sold in the shop, all from China, which were ordered from the Internet. He said: China's goods are of good quality and low prices, and almost everything is only 1/4 of local commodity prices.
There are many small shops selling bikini, beach slippers and snacks beside the beach. One of the shop owners is Ronaldo, who told me that bikini and beach slippers are made in China. In addition to food and beverage, the "manufacturing" can be counted with one hand.
He told me, "the Chinese bought the natural rubber from us and did it again. Shoes He sold us again, the price is still cheaper than ours, and the Chinese are very smart! "He left his mouth open. Obviously, the boss didn't like China as much as he liked.
Tour of Rio Street on Sundays, numerous products, including cloth, clothing and toys, are all made in China. They are all shipped from China. Rio has six ports and huge throughput. Like natural rubber, a large number of natural resources are shipped from here to China, and a large number of Chinese finished products are coming from here.
When a girl gets married, she likes to buy Chinese made cigarettes. Yarn products As a dowry, a drawnwork sheet at a cost of several hundred yuan can be sold to 4000 yuan in the market, and some can even sell 8000 yuan. About 90% of China's products are shipped here by container. Although customs customs charges about 60% of the cost of goods, it still can not stop the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing prices.
At present, there are forty thousand or fifty thousand people in China, including more than 10000 of them. Most of them are from the mainland, and most of them are concentrated in the two cities. Before, Zhejiang businessmen made light business products, and now they are turning into more profitable auto parts, light machinery, bicycles, sewing machines and other products.
However, the feeling is different from the real situation. Although the import of consumer goods in China makes people feel "made in China" at all times, the import of producer goods is ignored. From the total import volume in 2010 and the data from China's imports, China accounted for only 14.1% of total imports of consumer goods and means of production.
"China makes all kinds of products with our raw materials and sells them to us, and it falls into the" manufacturing dependence "of the Chinese people. Obviously, a considerable number of people will have such a worry. " Professor Renato Flores said.
Is the industrial system destroyed by "made in China"?
Ronaldo Motta (Ronaldo Mota), director of international cooperation at the Ministry of science and technology, told me on the corridor of the palace of the "I am a relatively complete industrial production system". Anibal Quijero, a sociologist, also believes that Anibal is the country with the most complete industrial base in Latin America in the Central Plains of the Quijano.
He wrote: "China is the only country that has retained important industrial production structure, while other Latin American countries have been dragged into the" de industrialization "situation. It is also the only country with heavy industry. Thus, advanced technology can be produced and absorbed. Although multinational corporations exist in a wide range of sectors, they are more dominant in the automotive industry and other sectors, but the majority of industrial enterprises still have property rights.
According to the world bank data, the number of motor vehicles per thousand people in 2010 was 198, and China was 37. Since May 2010, it has surpassed Germany to become the fourth largest automobile market in the world. The only difference is that more than 85% of the cars are hybrid Flex Fuel. Not only is the car, but also the world's largest feeder aircraft manufacturer and exporter, and it is also the only state-owned enterprise at present.
But if we look at the steel industry, it is not so optimistic. Although the resources of the iron ore are abundant, the iron ore cost per ton of cold rolled steel is only 40 US dollars (China is 75 US dollars), and the labor cost is 57 US dollars (China is 26 US dollars), far lower than other main producers. but
Over the past 10 years, the steel output of the year has been hovering around 25 million tons.
The reason is that in 90s, the world's largest privatization took place. In the late 90s, the company privatized industrial sectors such as metallurgy, mineral exploitation, petrochemical, electricity, financial services, telecommunications and so on. Statistics show that in the past 1990-1999 years, a total of 113 enterprises were privatized, with a total transaction value of $61 billion 500 million, and a total of 1055 mergers and acquisitions. The total value of the transaction is US $67 billion 800 million, and the total of the two items is US $129 billion 300 million. The share of foreign capital in privatization is 76.9%, and the proportion of participation in mergers and acquisitions is 71.4%.
I asked the Chinese ambassador, Hu Ge, whether the privatization of Kun is related to the "Washington consensus", which he denied. He said: "the reason why the privatization is mainly due to the need to solve the high inflation rate in the country and to repay public debt, and at the same time, the performance of state owned companies is very poor, and there is no capital to reinvest, and the government has been unable to run state-owned companies, including state-owned enterprises, state-owned communications companies, state-owned mineral companies and state-owned power companies."
Since the major changes in property rights of industrial enterprises in 90s, industrial growth has begun to slow down and negative growth has taken place in some industries. Facing the rapid opening up of the market, domestic enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are unable to predict the new competitive situation caused by the entry of large quantities of imported goods and large numbers of foreign investors. Usually, they adopt a defensive measure and do not dare to expand their investment.
Just as commented, in the process of property right reform, there is neither much new industry added to the original industrial parent, nor has the original industry been eliminated. In addition, with the long term interest rate of the bank, there are few new factories built up by investment, and the manufacturing industry of manufactured goods has been maintained at a general level.
Fedi Vaz (Jo o Carlos Ferraz), vice president of the development bank, told me that as a capital inflow country, our exchange rate and interest rate have long stagnated the growth of manufacturing industry, and have been at the low level of international production chain. The private sector is still very cautious, especially their willingness to invest in innovation is very weak. Therefore, solving the problem of exchange rate and interest rate is the biggest challenge we face now. There is always a big problem in finance. Interest rates are around 12%, and higher interest rates are maintained because they always have memories of inflation.
According to the CIA data, the situation is far more serious than the vice president described. In 2009, the central bank's base interest rate was 15.17% and the global ranking was ninth. Its commercial lending rate is 44.65%, ranking second in the world. It can be said that it is the most expensive country in the world. Moreover, the investment rate is only 18.5%, and the global ranking is 107th. China has remained above 30% for decades. In China, about 25% of investment is in the manufacturing sector, while only 11% to 15%, while capital products account for 75% to 80% of investment.
In view of this, whether "made in China" is "destroying the industrial system"? The conclusion is clear: the entry of Chinese manufactured goods is only an external cause. Although there is a complete industrial system, privatization and foreign capital mergers and acquisitions only emphasize the control of foreign investment in automobile, electronics, telecommunications, information and other industries, and thus rapidly improve the technological level and product quality of these industries, while neglecting the serious lack of production capacity and innovation ability of their manufacturing industry. {page_break}
Nelson Barbosa, deputy finance minister of the Ministry of Finance (Nelson Barbosa), said when he talked about import and export industries, "the industrial production capacity of the industry has recovered rapidly after the economic crisis of 2008-2009 years, but it still maintains its ability level before the crisis. At present, the import volume of products, especially from East Asia, has increased significantly, and the competitiveness of the export industry has been weakened ". Because from the perspective of the import of the whole import, it has not yet reached the seriousness of "destruction".
"Trade is a tool for growth, not a source of difficulties."
Brazilians agree that China has taken up its position in the international manufacturing division of labor and believes that this is because China has benefited from the correct foreign trade policy. But importing large quantities of textiles or finished shoes from China has really hit the huge light industry sector. These departments complain that the price of products imported from China is too low, which has put a lot of pressure on the Chinese government. They demand restrictions on some products imported from China.
Luis Augusto DeCastro Neves (Luis Augusto de Castro Neves), a professor at the Institute of economic research, said: "in the case of some industries, they complain about the" China threat "that they understand as a result of lower labor costs and tax costs. Some of the industrial sectors of China are directly affected by China's competition, whether in the mainland or in the third party market. For example, China has already surpassed the main source of import.
Professor Anthony Barros Castro Barros Castro, chairman of the IBRACH Council, solemnly said: "in fact, it is indeed facing the impact of" China shock ". The lack of correct understanding will be an obstacle to mutual strategic cooperation." (Antonio) He believes that in the past many years, he has been missing opportunities, and now he can no longer afford the cost of missing opportunities. He hoped that "China's shock" is a positive shock, so that he can wake up.
"Zheng is at a dangerous crossroads," director Ronaldo Motaba told me. "The danger is that in the current international division of labor system, we can choose to use daily consumer goods, such as food and mineral products, as a better product to participate in international division of labor, or to become the center of the world's manufactured goods, just like China or other countries. This means that we can be a strong competitor in the market of consumer goods, but this is not the choice that a great country should be like. We hope to be competitive in all fields of the international market, but this is not a simple process. It is far from the goal. Obviously, there is a long-term pursuit.
The ambassador to China told me that China should not be responsible for all industrial sectors. The government is also working hard to upgrade its industrial sector. "Our president just launched the Bigger Brazil Plan on the two day (August 2nd), aiming at the problems existing in the industry and hoping to push forward the development of the industrial sector. China is one of the important factors."
He clearly stated: "the Chinese government and enterprises need to understand this and know the problems of concern. When another country's domestic market is facing difficulties, it is impossible to continue to develop relations between countries in accordance with the original mode. When trade leads to unemployment and bankruptcy, trade can not play a positive role. Trade is a tool for growth and development, rather than a source of difficulties. "
The core content of the grand plan launched by President Dilma Rousseff is that in the next two years, the enterprises will receive tax relief of 16 billion US dollars, and protect the ethnic industries through export tax rebate and other subsidies, thereby promoting the export of industrial products and coping with the competition of imported products.
Professor Renato Flores believes that China has realized its upgrading in the industrial chain, and we should remain rational. For example, the parts produced in some countries are inexpensive and inexpensive, so we should buy them directly instead of producing them ourselves. In fact, before the "big plan", the industry has already seen manufacturers who want to produce the whole equipment. The government is also using its foreign exchange reserves to stimulate its industrial upgrading, for example, the oil industry is experiencing such a process.
Ambassador Hu Ge told me that most of his career was to deal with trade issues. As long as people realized the problem, trade problems could be solved eventually. "We hope that when Vice Premier Li visits China next month, we can discuss the relevant issues and seek solutions. If we can solve these problems, I think the prospect of our relationship is very bright. "
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