The Fund Looks Ahead In The Four Quarter.

"For the judgment of future market, if we borrow a word to summarize, that is" step by step startling. "

Talking about the four quarter market, yesterday, a fund manager in Shanghai said so.

In an interview, reporters found that the fund with the above attitude is not unusual, especially

European debt crisis is difficult to remove.

"Since the second half of the year, especially in the near future,

Cheng Chau believes that, in general, the domestic market is relatively calm, for the first half of the year has been worried about the high inflation, at present, the risk is slowly released, although the possibility of high hovering is great, but the probability of a new high is very small, and the fear of economic growth is not as pessimistic as before. "After a series of bad attacks, the A share market confidence is obviously insufficient", then the bad market from overseas will cause A share market investors.

Similarly, the Soochow Fund also said that the external economic deterioration and other negative effects led to the A share market falling continuously, while the South Fund pointed out that the two dip in the US economy also had a negative impact on the A share market.

Policy turn has not yet appeared.

From the domestic market, the market expectations of policy change did not appear.

As domestic economic growth continues to show signs of downward trend is still more obvious, Soochow Fund expects the fourth quarter economic growth is still mild downward trend, GDP growth is expected to be around 9%, while the inflation situation in the four quarter of a greater probability of improvement, CPI is expected to fall month by month, the fourth quarter CPI dropped to around 5.2%.

Under the background of mild economic downturns and inflation peaking, Soochow Fund decided that the probability of easing and tightening policy was relatively small during the year.

Similarly, Guotai Jinma fund manager Cheng Chau also believes that from the three quarter, the probability of moderate economic growth decline, including the relatively stable financial and mining sectors, the cyclical industry will have a larger adjustment, but the pre market downturn has been reflected, and from the valuation of the market, is now lower than the 2008 bear market level, but the undervalued value can only provide security, does not mean that the market can rebound immediately, the real reversal needs strong support from the policy level, but no such policy has yet been seen.

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Short term probability of oscillation

"Although the exact bottom of the stock market is difficult to measure, according to the two outsize standards formed in the A share market in November 2005 and October 2008, it has gradually entered the bottom area."

In response, the South Fund said recently that "in terms of valuation, the overall PE level in the A share market is equivalent to 998 in 2005 and 1664 in 2008."

However, it is worth noting that the overall market price ratio (PB) of the current market is still higher than that of 2008.

The South Fund decided that the market is in the bottom area, but will continue to seek support in the short term. The fourth quarter will continue the trend of shock detection and opportunistic rebound.

Soochow Fund also said that the downward trend of domestic economic growth may continue to the four quarter. Under the background of peak inflation, the A share market will not fall sharply, and the probability of shocks will be larger.

And the the Great Wall energy infrastructure fund manager Yu Guang believes that in the short term, A share market judgment to maintain the shock pattern.

Defense is still the first priority.

"Even if there is a rebound, picking stocks is more important."

For investment opportunities, Guotai Jinma fund manager Cheng Chau's point of view is distinct.

He said that, taking into account factors such as policy support and liquidity, the possibility that the industry and the whole sector will rise again is not large enough. The competition between industries will be aggravated. The importance of the selected stocks is becoming more and more prominent, and the stocks that can get policy support in the future will undoubtedly be much higher.

And the fund manager of energy infrastructure in the Great Wall, Yu Guang, said that the next stage should focus on underestimating the value of industries and stocks.

Yu Guang believes that under the weak market environment, professional investors prefer enterprises to rely on their own profits to achieve high-speed growth, that is, enterprises with core competitiveness and at the same time have more reasonable valuation.

Under the premise of controlling the position and prudently investing, the Soochow Fund suggests that under the uncertain environment, we should stick to the principle of defense and be optimistic about food, beverage and medical organisms.