In September, Foreign Trade Growth Rate Dropped &Nbsp, And Import Prices Rose Far Beyond Exports.

In October 13th, the General Administration of Customs released data. In September, China's foreign trade import and export value totaled 324 billion 830 million US dollars, up 18.9% over the same period last year.

Exports increased by 17.1% and imports increased by 20.9%, which were lower than expected.

"In the first three quarters of this year, China's foreign trade import and export growth rate is 24.6%."

According to Lu Peijun, deputy director of the Customs General Administration, the figure is still relatively high, which is obviously faster than the growth rate of China's GDP in the same period. At the same time, the average annual growth rate of foreign trade in China is 15.9% lower than that during the "11th Five-Year" period.

But whether it is from the trend of this year, or compared with the same period last year, the import and export of foreign trade in September showed a high trend of decline.

Industry analysts believe that China's export growth will continue or decline in the future due to weaker international market demand.

September foreign trade data lower

Compared with the first 8 months of this year, foreign trade data in September were much lower than expected in the industry.

In the month of September, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $324 billion 830 million, an increase of 18.9%.

Of which, exports amounted to 169 billion 670 million US dollars, an increase of 17.1%; imports of US $155 billion 160 million, an increase of 20.9%; the trade surplus was US $14 billion 510 million, narrowing 12.4%.

Societe Generale (12.79, -0.01, -0.08%) (micro-blog) chief economist Lu Zheng commissar (micro-blog) told the daily economic news reporter that the growth rate of imports and exports this month showed a downward trend compared with 7~8 months. The main reason is that after the Japanese earthquake, China exported western electric and mechanical products to be cut off, so export demand was temporarily suppressed, while in Japan

Another analysis said that exports in September were significantly lower than expected, not only weaker than seasonal rules, but also a larger decline in growth rate.

Taking into account the impact of orders generally 3~6 months as a cycle, the beginning of the two quarter of the decline in the order index impact has begun to appear.

Not only in September, but also in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of China's import and export trade also showed a high trend.

The monthly growth rate dropped from 31.5% in March to 18.5% in June, and rebounded to 27.1% in August and 18.9% in September.

Lu Peijun believes that this is caused by factors such as slowing international demand and rising domestic costs.

CICC reported that the European and American economies have slowed down significantly in recent years, and Global trade protectionism has begun to rise. The new PMI export index of China's new export orders, though rising seasonally in September, is still significantly lower than the historical average (the average of September in the past 6 years is 54.6), indicating that export growth in the coming months may continue to decline, and exports in the fourth quarter of this year will face greater challenges.

According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China

Although the data can still be maintained at over 20%, the growth rate of China's exports and imports in the first three quarters of this year dropped by more than 10 percentage points over the same period last year.

In this regard, Lu Peijun believes that in 2009, China's foreign trade was greatly reduced by the impact of the international financial crisis, resulting in a low base last year.

This year is an independent growth on the basis of last year. The relative decline in growth rate should be reasonable.

The future export situation is not optimistic.

China's future export trend is even more worrying compared with the state's vigorously supported imports.

Under the influence of external demand reduction, price rise of raw materials and appreciation of the renminbi, many export enterprises have almost reached the crossroads of life and death.

Take Putian, Fujian, China's shoe capital as an example, statistics show that the export volume of footwear in Putian has continued to grow, but export batches have been negative growth.

Besides, besides the cost and the appreciation of Renminbi, Putian's export shoe enterprises have made a small profit and some have even lost money.

Putian entry exit inspection and Quarantine Bureau believes that Europe and the United States are in debt crisis, resulting in shrinking local people's consumption ability, directly affecting the city's export trade to Europe and the United States.

In addition to the European and American customers' withdrawal, there are also some customers who refuse to accept due to insufficient consumer confidence after the shipment. Some customers still default on the payment, which affects the normal collection of the export enterprises and brings certain risks to the enterprises.

Some analysts commented that the main risks facing exports have risen from the price of imported raw materials to the pressure imposed by the global trade protectionism led by Europe and the United States, mainly to urge the appreciation of the renminbi and set up various trade barriers for China's exports.

Lu Peijun also pointed out that there are still many uncertainties in the fourth quarter that restrict China's foreign trade development, especially the appreciation of the renminbi will inhibit the growth of foreign trade export.

He also reminded us that the pace of pformation and upgrading of export commodities structure is slow, and that the growth rate of export of electromechanical products and high-tech products is lower than that of overall exports, and that the proportion of exports has declined. These problems should be highly regarded.

But shrinking is not a sign of deterioration. Lu Zhiming, a macroeconomic data analyst at the 4.58 (-0.01, -0.22%) research department, believes that most of China's exports are from labor-intensive industries, and that the economic downturn in Europe and the United States has limited impact on China's export growth.

Inflationary pressures on imports increase.

According to the import and export monitoring and early warning system of the customs, China's exports are expected to grow by about 18% this year, and imports will grow by about 21%. The trade surplus of the whole year is about 170 billion US dollars, slightly lower than that of 2010 or basically flat.

This year's import growth rate is higher than the monthly export growth rate in a single month. In addition to the policy guidance on expanding imports, import inflation pressure is also one of the important reasons.

According to statistics, the price of crude oil, iron ore and refined oil in the international market has increased by 37.5%, 36.9% and 28.5% respectively over the same period this year.

According to the customs import and export statistics of the national key commodities, the import volume of China's 18 key import commodities has declined in the first 9 months of this year, but the total amount of imports is only alumina, which has declined compared with the same period last year.

For example, China's imports of refined oil increased by 13.6% in the first 9 months of this year compared with the same period last year, but imports increased by 52.4% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months, the number of imports of cereal and cereal in China decreased by 28.2% compared with last year, but imports increased by 6.1%.

"Import prices in the first 9 months of this year are significantly faster than the increase in export prices. Import pressure is greater and trade terms have deteriorated."

Lu Peijun said export prices rose 9.9% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, import prices rose by 14.8% over the same period last year, and the terms of trade index was 95.7%, which means that the same quantity of goods imported needed to export more than 4.3% of the commodities.

Imports are stronger than exports, which is beneficial to reduce China's trade surplus to a certain extent.

The report of the bank pointed out that the main reason for the continued trade surplus in September was that the scale of imports fell less than exports.

From August to September, the import scale decreased by only 400 million US dollars, while the export scale decreased by US $3 billion 640 million, so the trade surplus dropped by US $3 billion 240 million compared with August.

The situation in the first three quarters is also the case, because China's import growth is higher than the export growth rate by 4 percentage points, China's foreign trade surplus narrowed by 10.6% compared to the same period last year, reducing by 12 billion 700 million US dollars, and the ratio of trade surplus to foreign trade value was 4%, down 1.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that the surplus will remain in the coming months, but the annual surplus will be lower than last year. The RMB is still facing appreciation pressure. However, because of the uncertainty of the domestic exchange rate fluctuations, the renminbi will not be able to substantially appreciate a basket of currencies.