Monetary Policy Pre Adjustment Fine Adjustment Space Is Opening

According to the announcement of the open market business paction issued by the people's Bank of China on 27, the central bank suspended the three year central bank's vote for two consecutive weeks this week.

Just as the contraction of the operation in the open market has loosened, the CBRC has issued a notice on the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In connection with this investigation, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed in Tianjin that "macroeconomic policies should be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner." to the governor of the central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan recently proposed that monetary policy remain flexible and flexible under the premise of "the general formulation remains unchanged". Various indications indicate that the space for the next policy adjustment is being opened, and the flexibility, pertinence and foresight of monetary policy will become more prominent.

Behind the subtle changes in policy is the subtle change in the current macroeconomic environment.

In the first half of the year, the economic situation that China once faced "higher prices and lower growth" is now changing.

CPI, which has attracted much attention, rose slowly from the three year high point of the previous 6.5%, and the turning point of price trend was basically established.

At the same time, there are new signs of economic growth. As a leading indicator of economic operation, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) and HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI), which lingered in the contraction area for several months, have rebounded toward the economic boom, indicating a further strengthening of economic development.

Compared with the previous "higher price and lower growth" situation combination, the new macro environment combination of "price stabilization and growth recovery" is willing to be seen by the decision-making department and provides the possibility for the opening of the next step of policy micro space.

After all, the tight monetary and credit policies in the earlier stage aggravated the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. With the increase of labor costs and raw material costs, some small and medium-sized enterprises have been in a difficult position in daily operation.

At the same time, the European debt crisis is still continuing to ferment, and the external economic environment will not improve significantly in the short term, and even further deteriorate. In the face of the superposed risks brought by the previous policies, the next step of economic policy needs to be prepared for a rainy day to do a good job in the prevention of "shock absorption".

However, it needs to be pointed out that although the price trend has dropped slightly, economists generally expect that the price trend in China will remain at a relatively high level for a long time, and controlling prices will remain the primary task of China's macroeconomic policy.

The next stage of monetary policy should continue to focus on "stability". At the same time, in the open market operation, interest rate and reserve ratio adjustment, more targeted local adjustment will be intensified. Credit policies will better integrate with industrial policies, ensure the capital needs of the state's key construction projects and continue construction projects, and focus on supporting the real economy, especially those in line with industrial policies.