Profit Triggering Impulse Of Expansion, Caprolactam Supply And Demand Or Imbalance

Despite the fact that since October, caprolactam Prices continued to fall, traders began to cry, but at yesterday's China International caprolactam and nylon forum, manufacturers and traders are still talking about the expansion of production. However, capacity will continue to increase in the first quarter of next year. Put in There are also people in the industry who are worried about how long the caprolactam good days will last.

For nearly 9 months. High profit

From the beginning of this year to September, caprolactam has maintained considerable profit margins. The price of caprolactam this year is different from that of many basic chemical products. This year, the price of caprolactam is "two rises and two falls". First, from 1 to April, crude oil prices and demand rose, caprolactam rose from 24 thousand yuan / ton to 32 thousand yuan / ton, after a short two months' adjustment, it rose to 30 thousand yuan / ton again from July to July.

Fang Fang, director of the commercial department of caprolactam at Baling Branch, Sinopec, believes that the reason why the caprolactam supply continued to be tight and the price was high in the first three quarters was that the capacity expansion of nylon -6 polymers at the same time continued faster than the production capacity of caprolactam. Compared with polyester, nylon -6 polymer and its fibers have better toughness and wear resistance. In the automotive industry, nylon -6, which is used as engineering plastics, is gradually replacing metals. However, because of insufficient raw materials, the starting rate of nylon -6 is only 60%~70% this year.

In the first 9 months of this year, caprolactam manufacturers have maintained considerable production profits, especially in the two periods of 3~4 and 6~7 months. Although prices have dropped to around 24 thousand yuan / ton, manufacturers still have some profit margins.

Excessive expansion leads to excess worry.

Like many chemical industry segments that have gone through a lot of work, the lucrative caprolactam has attracted more and more manufacturers to come to "gold rush". However, insiders pointed out that the high profit of caprolactam is difficult to maintain under the double threat of polyester substitute and capacity expansion too fast.

Charles Fryer, chairman of Britain's tekron global Chemicals Co., has expressed concern about China's rapid expansion of its capacity. He showed the world's new caprolactam production data show that nearly 80% of the world's next year's new capacity is concentrated in China. "The apparent consumption of caprolactam in the world increased by 12% in 2010, and most of the new demand came from China under the stimulus policy. The growth rate was completely overdrawn this year, and the consumption of caprolactam in 2011 was almost zero."

Unlike the optimistic voice of domestic manufacturers, Charles Fryer is worried that polyester will pose an alternative threat to caprolactam in the presence of energy. Caprolactam is much more sensitive to energy cost than pure terephthalic acid (PTA) and methyl alcohol (MEG). When the cost of crude oil rises, if the price difference between the two increases further, the downstream will first consider the use of polyester instead of nylon.

Deng Jun, the Secretary General of the nylon Industry Branch of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, has expressed similar concerns for domestic enterprises. He said that the caprolactam plant is more complex and requires high stability. The factors such as technical standards, environmental standards and safety production must be considered in product production. Only the effective integration of upstream and downstream resources can decide the trend of profit distribution.

Statistics show that next year, the domestic caprolactam production capacity is only 400 thousand tons in the first quarter, and 200 thousand tons in the three quarter, and 300 thousand tons in 2013. Not only that, recently, Luxi Chemical, China chemical, orchid science and technology and other listed companies have also issued 200 thousand tons of caprolactam new project announcement.

Caprolactam is an important organic chemical raw material. Downstream is mainly used for the production of nylon 6 fiber (85%, used in textiles, industrial yarn and carpet yarn) and nylon 6 resin (15%, widely used in automobiles, ships, electronic and electrical appliances, machinery, consumer goods and other fields). Nylon engineering plastics and biaxially stretched nylon film are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future, and are supported by national policies.

The European Union and the United States are important production areas of caprolactam worldwide. At present, China's main caprolactam production enterprises include Nanjing Oriental, Baling Petrochemical, Shijiazhuang chemical fiber, giant chemical group and so on. Data show that by the end of 2010, caprolactam production capacity in China was 570 thousand tons, the output was 494 thousand tons, the apparent consumption was 1 million 125 thousand tons, the net import volume was as high as 631 thousand tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was only 44%.

In April 2010, China's Ministry of Commerce began anti-dumping investigations on the import of caprolactam in the European Union and the United States. In October this year, anti-dumping decisions were made, and 2.2%~25.5% anti-dumping duties were imposed on 8 European companies and 4 companies in the United States for a period of five years.