No Stimulus, No Expansion Of &Nbsp; Will Monetary Policy Take The Neutral Line?

After the December 9th meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the Central Committee will be convened.

Development Research Center of the State Council

"The combination of GDP and CPI will enter the" 8+4 "era from the past '10+2' era, that is, China's economic growth will gradually enter the 8% and 4% era.

Ba Shu Song said.

In December 9th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC, which was regarded as a pre set tone conference, was held to determine the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control in 2012, that is, the "positive" fiscal policy and the "prudent" policy.

However, in the past ten years, in addition to the "tightness" in 2007 and the "moderate easing" in 2008, the monetary policy in most years was basically "stable".

In addition to adopting a "stable" tone in 2004-2007 years, fiscal policy is positive in other years.

Therefore, how to interpret the policy information contained in "prudent" and "positive" is particularly important.

The central economic work conference will further refine economic growth in the coming year.

Neutral monetary policy

In 2012, the monetary policy was set to be "steady". However, the word "robust" has a tight and loose distinction in different years.

Compared with the relatively tight monetary contraction in 2011, where will the monetary policy go in 2012?

According to the understanding of Ba Shu song, the monetary policy will be set steady next year. Its inherent meaning is neutral, no stimulation nor expansion. "We should turn the task of structural adjustment to fiscal policy with positive force."

By the end of the year, the tightening of domestic economy and the rate of economic decline were very close to the end of 2008.

At that time, the M1 growth rate dropped to around 8%, which is lower than that of the next 9%. Behind the monetary policy is the gloomy economic trend at home and abroad.

"In the environment of global weak growth and monetary easing, even if prices do not fall short next year, China will not be able to unilaterally undertake large-scale deflation unilaterally."

Ba Shu song's remarks can explain the basic logic behind the current monetary policy keynote.

It is assumed that in 2011, new loans will be around 7 trillion and 500 billion, of which 5 trillion will be invested in infrastructure, and the loans will be less than 3 trillion.

"In this case, enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, want to get money, which is very difficult."

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However, the choice and logic of monetary policy today are quite different from that of three years ago.

A senior banker admitted to our correspondent that in the background of the domestic commercial banks' loan to deposit ratio approaching to more than 75% high voltage lines and a continuous decline in capital adequacy ratio, "it is very worried that there will be no more than 8 trillion loans to be put into operation next year."

According to CICC statistics, the overall deposit and loan ratio of commercial banks has been as high as 67%, and the share loan ratio of some share holding banks and small banks has been close to 75%.

"If 75% of the bottom line is not carve, the bank can not absorb new sources of capital, even if the scale restrictions are lifted, banks will not be able to put money," said Mr Ba.

Credit is facing structural challenges

In the eyes of these bankers, the real foundation for supporting the rapid credit placement of commercial banks has changed. "In 2012, it is impossible to have another round of" four trillion "investment plan, and the four trillion plan has led to 7 trillion and 950 billion credit in 2009 and 2010 in 2009.

Ba Shu song also believes that from the actual demand, infrastructure investment demand has basically been satisfied in the investment frenzy of 2008. "After two or three years, the projects that have already started are not over yet, so it is unrealistic to re open the infrastructure."

A middle-level official of the CBRC said at the Jiuhua Spa & Resort conference convened by the National Research Center at the end of November, that in 2009, nearly 6 trillion of the 10 trillion new loans were in line with the "four trillion" plan to invest in infrastructure. "Investment in projects is generally a parabolic trend. The first year is not the most, and the second years are rising slowly, then gradually decreasing."

In view of this, even in parallel mode, loans for infrastructure projects in 2010 were also around 6 trillion, which means that only 1 trillion and 900 billion of the 7 trillion and 900 billion new loans were invested in entities such as SMEs.

"On the one hand, the amount of credit is very large. On the other hand, small and medium-sized enterprises can hardly get bank loans. The whole society is bound to be short of money."

The above regulatory officials said that this can also explain the structural chronic illness coexisting with the shortage of money and the shortage of liquidity in 2010 and especially since 2011.

Once it becomes a structural problem, it is very difficult to solve it.

Even if monetary policy is loosened next year, if the credit structure is not adjusted, enterprises will still not get enough money, and the capital of enterprises will remain tight.

The regulator pointed out.

M2 growth mode faces pformation

In the view of Ba Shu song, the relaxation of monetary policy is phased at present, in order to prevent the risk of downfall. Monetary policy may return to a sound track after the end of this probe.

He thinks the reasons are: first, although CPI has dropped to 4.2% in November, it is not low compared with the historical level. If this is too relaxed, it may re inflate the pressure of inflation. Second, relaxation may lead to the re flow of funds to the real estate industry, nor should it be too relaxed.

Therefore, we must look for growth points outside the infrastructure, but we must rely on investment to really cope with the crisis and drive growth. Next year's fiscal policy will be a bright spot.

The money supply mechanism is changing quietly, which brings great difficulty to the M2 growth target for monetary regulation in the coming year.

The change of M2 is mainly composed of foreign exchange increment and new loan.

Since 2001, the rapid increase in foreign exchange has been an important driving factor for the growth of M2 in China. Foreign exchange accounted for more than 50% of the total.

Next year, this situation is changing.

Foreign exchange accounted for 24 billion 900 million yuan in October, the first decline since December 2007.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, thinks that the RMB exchange rate will increase around RMB 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan next year, which is far below the increase of 1-10 this year, considering that the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar will slow down next year and the net capital inflow of the whole year will drop sharply.

In the view of Ba Shu song, M2 has not been keeping up with the market in a timely manner, resulting in short term liquidity in the market. Next year, we must maintain a certain increase in M2. In the context of a decline in the proportion of foreign exchange reserves, credit growth will correspondingly fill the liquidity gap caused by the outflow of foreign exchange.