RMB Exchange Rate "Seven Even Stop" &Nbsp; Domestic Commodity Capital Pressure Highlights

　　 RMB Spot exchange rate against the US dollar "seven consecutive stops"

In December 8th, the latest data released by the people's Bank of China authorized by the China foreign exchange trading center showed that the renminbi was against the US dollar. exchange rate The median price was 6.3319 yuan, up 23 basis points from the previous day, and the RMB against the US dollar showed a trend of upward trend. On the same day, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar touched the limit for seventh consecutive trading days.

7 yuan, deputy director of the Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiations, said that the depreciation of the renminbi indicates that the Chinese government has never manipulated the exchange rate, and that the RMB exchange rate fluctuated according to market changes and market demand.

In this regard, experts believe that this means the RMB exchange rate. market Degree of improvement. Guo Tianyong, a professor at the school of finance at Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the market has always been accustomed to the appreciation of the renminbi, which is somewhat inappropriate or even panic over the recent devaluation. Devaluation is certainly due to instability in the international market, domestic economic downturn and speculative capital speculation, but its macro risk control also means that the degree of exchange rate marketization is improving. At the same time, moderate depreciation is not only conducive to exports, but also reduces the pressure of international hot money inflow, reducing central bank's basic money supply, and helps to curb capital bubbles.

Insiders said that the spot exchange rate fell continuously, which provided an opportunity for China to further increase its exchange rate flexibility and further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

Since the reform in 2005, the renminbi has been moving towards a market oriented exchange rate mechanism linked to a basket of currencies. However, in recent years, the volatility of the global financial market and the volatility of the US dollar index are relatively high, and the focus of the RMB exchange rate is always on the US dollar. However, since the second half of this year, the situation has changed, and the correlation between the US dollar and the RMB exchange rate has weakened. The strong strength of the US dollar in September and November did not have a significant impact on the direction of the RMB exchange rate. The recent "seven consecutive falls" in the spot market and the "guiding exchange rate" of the central bank have not shown the trend of being influenced by the US dollar.

Moreover, in November 28th, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center launched the first spanaction of RMB against Australian dollar and RMB against Canadian dollar in interbank foreign exchange market, adding two new members to a basket of currencies.

Since the second half of 2010, the foreign exchange trading center has launched RMB spanactions on ringgit, rouble, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Up to now, the currency of direct exchange rate with RMB has increased to nine. Analysts say that when the yuan has experienced a long-term appreciation and is approaching equilibrium level, the marketization of the RMB exchange rate is another important step forward.

A foreign exchange trader pointed out that the main currencies in the international foreign exchange market are free convertibility, while in the context of the current RMB still can not be freely convertible, the main objective of the management is to deepen the RMB exchange rate marketization through the introduction of RMB to major currencies in the inter-bank foreign exchange market.

What is more noteworthy is that Tan Yaling, Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that the short selling of the renminbi was a lot of coming from being short. Before the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, Tan Yaling has also said that the renminbi is appreciated, and we must be vigilant against the mistakes of the Japanese yen. {page_break}

RMB exchange rate continued to fall, pressure on domestic commodity capital

The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar reappeared on the 8 day, and the seventh trading day touched the lower limit of the daily trading range. "The RMB limit indicates that the fund began to show a certain degree of reflux, and it withdrew from the emerging market to the developed economies, and domestic commodities were under pressure due to the withdrawal of funds." Huang Junfei, manager of Changjiang futures research and consulting department, told reporters.

Recently, the volume of domestic commodity futures market showed a sharp decline. Data show that in November, the volume and turnover volume of the National Futures Market decreased by 47.19% and 38.58% respectively. By the beginning of December, the volume of trading on the three major commodity exchanges was at a low level.

Deutsche Bank recently said that the possible tightening of capital will bring financing difficulties to commodities trading, and next year it may cause raw material prices to fall sharply. There is also analysis that the future trend of commodities may face more capital tightening tide impact, because nearly ten years of capital flooding, to the commodity market has brought a huge bubble.

The contraction of capital market is regarded as a corroboration of the bad economic situation. Zhang Xiaolei, director of the Jinpeng Institute of economics, told the economic reference daily that China's demand for commodities is a hot topic for a long time. But now it will be more difficult for China to maintain its high growth rate, which will be bad for commodities.

The appreciation of the renminbi once pushed up China's demand for bulk commodities. With the RMB's daily decline, the expectation of depreciation is going on, and the trend of commodities will be disturbed again.

From the point of view of import and export trade, in general, depreciation of the RMB will expand exports and curb imports. Liu Xintian, editor in chief of the business community, believes that because China's bulk commodities are mainly imported, the impact of depreciation on commodities will be negative. With the decline in purchasing power, the import of commodities will be incrementally reduced. Zhang Xiaolei believes that most of the imports are in the US dollar as the settlement currency. The depreciation of the renminbi is equivalent to the increase in import prices, but traders are not yet willing to accept this reality.

In terms of different varieties, copper and non-agricultural metals such as soybeans and cotton will all be heavily affected by imported high dependence varieties, while chemical products will be imported mainly from petroleum and other raw materials, and the impact of related varieties will be lagged behind.

On the export side, China's export growth has declined over the past two months, due to the impact of the global economic downturn. It is expected that the export situation will be more severe next year. Huang Junfei believes that in the medium to long term, exchange rate changes will be beneficial to the mitigation of export pressure.

In recent months, commodities have been agitated by news of the "global economic downturn" and "European debt crisis". In the eyes of analysts, the depreciation of the renminbi is only a secondary factor, and the impact of the macro-economy on commodities will still be stronger than the depreciation of the renminbi.