Pei Changhong: China'S Export Competitiveness Is Hard To Replicate Easily

On the occasion of the new year, it is a helpless choice for European consumers to cling to their pockets.

According to the prediction of the Spanish consumer Union, the average consumption of food, gifts and decorations will drop by 17% during the Christmas and New Year holidays.

However, they are not the only ones who feel the "cold current" of the economy.

In Yiwu, China, although industry data show that the export orders for Christmas products in 2011 increased by about 10% compared to 2010, there were not many enterprises that actually made money.

"Workers' wages, store rents and raw materials are all rising. If we don't pay much attention, we will lose money at last."

This is the reproduction of the original sound of Yiwu business owners.

At present, Christmas products from 50%~55% are from Yiwu.

When the price advantage is fading away, what remains in "made in China"? Is the export trade as an important pole of economic growth sustainable? Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Chinese export enterprises are not replicable competitiveness, and other countries are still difficult to replace.

In September 2011, the international monetary organization (IMF) predicted that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2011, 1.6% in developed countries and 6.4% in developing countries.

Compared with the forecast of IMF in June, this time the growth of the world, developed and developing countries was reduced respectively.

We can see that the downward trend of global economic growth is increasing.

Although the world bank and UN forecasts are lower than before, these forecasts are the world of 2012.

Although the net export of goods and services has begun to show negative effects on China's economic growth since 2009, it is still one of the most important driving forces to maintain China's economic stock because of its wide range of industries and production links.

The slowdown in trade is not entirely a decrease in demand.

Increasing difficulty in financing and intensified trade protection are the main causes contributing to the slowdown in trade.

The growth rate of world trade dropped sharply to -10.7% in 2009, the biggest decline since World War II.

In 2010, with the recovery of global economic growth, the growth rate of world trade rose sharply to 12.8%, the highest annual growth rate since 1980.

In view of the gloomy global economic outlook, IMF expects world trade growth to slow to 7.5% in 2011, close to the growth rate in 2007, basically maintained before the financial crisis.

The slowdown in trade may not be entirely due to the decrease in demand. There are several phenomena that deserve attention in 2011.

Despite the overall slowdown, trade growth in developing countries is significantly better than that in developed countries.

The export growth rate of developed countries will decline from 12.3% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2011, down 6.1 percentage points.

The export growth rate of developing countries will decline from 13.6% in 2010 to 9.4% in 2011, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points.

In terms of imports, the growth rate of imports in developed countries dropped sharply from 11.7% in 2010 to 5.9% in 2011, while that in developing countries dropped from 14.9% in 2010 to 11.1%.

Similarly, developing countries will maintain stronger import growth.

This is mainly because developing countries' economies will maintain relatively high growth rates.

This trend indicates that developing countries are still an important source of trade increments in the coming year, but the weakness of traditional markets in developed countries may lead to the failure of overall external demand.

On the other hand, the risk of trade financing is rising and the cost of Global trade financing is rising.

Tad spreads, which is the most important risk measure to reflect the international financial market, has increased 2.5 times from ~10 in August 2011. Generally speaking, when thailley goes up, it shows that the market risk is expanding, the market capital is tight, the cost of bank borrowing is increased, and the borrowing cost of trade enterprises has also been raised.

This shows that the banking crisis triggered by the European debt crisis has begun to affect trade finance.

In particular, with the implementation of the Basel III agreement, banks are required to further lower the leverage ratio. Because of the shortage of loans and tighter banking supervision, trade financing has been deeply under pressure.

According to WTO estimates, about 10 trillion to 12 trillion U.S. dollars in trade financing business in the world to provide support for import and export trade.

Since 2009, the decline in trade volume between 10% and 15% has been caused by a decrease in the supply of trade finance.

The high unemployment rate will lead to further aggravation of trade protection.

Therefore, the problem of trade is also a matter of finance.

Another important factor behind the decline of trade in 2011 comes from the trade environment.

The high unemployment rate in the three largest economies in 2011 has become an excuse for launching trade remedy measures.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, China has suffered 50 trade remedy investigations in the first 9 months of 2011, amounting to US $3 billion.

IMF predicts that in 2011 and 2012, the unemployment rate in developed countries will reach 9.2% and 9.1% respectively, and that in the US and the euro area will reach 9% and 9.9% respectively in 2012.

This is expected to lead to more policies to protect jobs and industries in 2012.

Transformation and growth continue to face challenges

Grasp the advantages of manufacturing industry and promote

According to the Ministry of Commerce, by the end of November 2011, the total value of China's merchandise imports and exports has exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, and it is expected to exceed US $3 trillion and 500 billion for the whole year, an increase of about 22%, lower than that of 34.7% last year.

From the analysis of import and export data in 2011, we can see from the obvious changes of data that "pformation" is becoming a new trend of growth.

The growth rate of processing trade is decreasing.

In the first 11 months, China's general trade import and export amounted to US $1 trillion and 747 billion 850 million, an increase of 30.9%.

Under general trade, the deficit was 82 billion 290 million US dollars, expanding 1.1 times.

Over the same period, China's processing trade imports and exports reached 1 trillion and 190 billion 380 million US dollars, an increase of 13.4%.

The surplus under processing trade amounted to $331 billion 820 million, an increase of 14.1%.

This shows that the export competitiveness of China's processing and manufacturing industry is increasing, and its dependence on processing trade mode to expand the international market has been reduced.

Trade growth in emerging market countries is very fast.

In particular, China and ASEAN, China and Australia, Brazil, Russia and South Africa, bilateral trade growth is very fast.

Traditional commodity exports grew steadily.

From the data, clothing exports 139 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 19.5%; textiles $86 billion 370 million, an increase of 24%; footwear 37 billion 750 million US dollars, an increase of 17.2%.

The growth rate is higher than that of electromechanical and electronic products.

This trend has been going on since the international financial crisis in 2008.

China's comparative advantage in the manufacturing field determines that labour intensive industries can not be easily abandoned.

Because this part of the demand is often rigid, in the economic crisis, such products have more stable demand than mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products.

The exportation of export trade in the mainland should be seen as a bright spot of the changes in the structure of foreign trade in 2011.

In 2011, the growth rate of these traditional coastal trade provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and Jiangsu did not increase significantly.

Take Guangdong Province as an example, even export growth is lower than the national average.

But inland provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Tibet, Qinghai, and Tibet have achieved rapid growth, with an average growth rate of more than 40%.

This phenomenon indicates that industrial migration and industrial restructuring are in progress in recent years, reflecting the continuation of our current comparative advantage mainly to the mainland, so as to ensure that China will maintain certain competitive advantages in the coming year and create room for growth for new industries.

As for the export product structure, there has always been a view that the recession will lead to a decline in export of labor-intensive products, so China's adjustment of export structure is to extend its products to new and high technology.

Now facts show that for Chinese enterprises, the advanced product structure is right, but we should not ignore labour intensive products. The competitiveness of labor-intensive products is still in existence, which is determined by the resource endowment of our current stage.

Enterprises engaged in manufacturing industry should have confidence in the market and focus on improving quality and stabilizing market share.

It is noteworthy that the increase in import prices is a prominent phenomenon in 2011.

Because China's import structure is basically a productive structure, the imports of resource products account for about 35%.

As China's import structure is very stable, the prices of resource products gradually increase.

In the first 11 months of 2011, China imported 6.2 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 11%, and the average import price was 166.2 US dollars per ton, up 30.8%.

Imports of steel 14 million 390 thousand tons, down 4.2%, the average import price of $1385.6 per ton, up 13.6%.

The surge in commodity prices is an important reason for the increase in imports in 2011 faster than the growth rate of exports, which does not mainly reflect the increase in domestic demand.

In the future, the cost of land, natural resources and labor is still rising, which will constitute an important factor in the unstable growth of export trade.

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Compound competitiveness gradually becomes

China's leading edge is still ahead in the short term.

In the just concluded central economic work conference, steady export and expansion of imports were established as the direction of foreign trade development in 2012, which is an important signal for the whole weak world.

2011, China's imports of US $1 trillion and 600 billion will add up to US $8 trillion over the next five years.

This is the most fundamental reason why all foreign enterprises can not abandon China.

In fashion shops like H&M and ZARA, Vietnam's manufacturing and manufacturing in Kampuchea seem to have made a difference with China's manufacturing industry, but the competitive power of China is not easily duplicated.

On the one hand, the supporting advantages of coastal industries have been formed, especially in the developed coastal areas. Although some of the endowments of elements are weakening, most enterprises are unwilling to move away.

The important reason is that it has already formed good industrial matching conditions, such as notebook computer manufacturers, the proportion of labor cost in this industry is very small, and is very dependent on China's supply chain.

This is not only a lack of Southeast Asian countries, but also internal provinces and cities in China.

On the other hand, the survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce shows that Chinese workers have a good quality rating compared with other variables in the manufacturing industry.

At present, the labor cost of China's manufacturing industry is only 8% of that of the United States, even if it grows at a rate of 15% per year, it will take a long time to reach the level of the United States.

Due to the slow recovery of demand in developed countries, the elasticity of growth that reflects China's economic complementarity with developed countries, especially the low and middle end labor-intensive products, will be smaller. The growth elasticity of electromechanical products, high-tech products and capital technology intensive products that complement China's economy with emerging market countries, especially those of some developing countries, will be greater.

This new demand will drive our country to further develop the advanced manufacturing industry and promote the pformation and upgrading of traditional industries.

Transportation equipment manufacturing, electronic communication equipment manufacturing and other high-end equipment manufacturing industry will probably become an internationally competitive industry in China.

In addition to manufacturing advantages, Chinese enterprises still have scarce capital advantages.

Now China is the fifth largest capital exporter in the world. China's engineering construction enterprises, some manufacturing industries and resource development industries also have the advantages of overseas investment.

The stability and huge scale of China's financial system also provide a strong ability to resist risks.

Voice

China's import and export trade is expected to increase by 15% in 2012.

Although the recovery process of the world economy is slow, the pace of China's foreign trade development is still irresistible.

Under the background of the world economy's low speed and the growth rate of world trade 6~8%, the growth rate of China's import and export trade may reach 15% or more than 4 trillion dollars, of which the growth rate of export trade is about 12%, the growth rate of import trade can exceed 17%, and the trade gap is still around 150 billion dollars.

Service trade has become a new growth pole.

By 2020, the total import and export volume of China's goods and services will reach US $16 trillion and 700 billion, which will account for 19.5% of the world's total value, of which, merchandise exports will reach US $7 trillion and 580 billion, accounting for 22.3% of the world's total value, and imports of commodities will reach US $7 trillion and 300 billion, accounting for 20.3% of the world's total.

At that time, China is not only a big export country, but also the largest market in China.

The total import and export volume of trade in services will account for 11.5% of the world's total, and the import and export volume of trade in services will account for nearly 11% of the total import and export volume of China's merchandise services. China's services will make greater contributions to the pformation of foreign trade and economic development.