How Big Is The Slowdown In Exports Of Footwear And Other Enterprises (Two)

As Bo Xilai, former Minister of Commerce, said, "in a sense," made in China "is also" made in the world ", which is the result of the development of the world's manufacturing industry and international division of labor. The negation of" made in China "is negating the creativity, standards and quality of many enterprises in the world.

The three factors affect the export growth next year. The export growth rate in 1-11 months slowed down 1.4 percentage points in the first 11 months of last year, a 0.4 percentage point slower than the first 10 months.

The "made in China", which has survived the crisis of confidence, will further extend the trend of slight slowdown in export growth this year, or will there be a larger decline?

In the next year's foreign trade, there are three main concerns in the industry: first, the uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the subprime mortgage crisis has resulted in the lending of American financial institutions, which may affect consumer credit funds, and the weakening of the wealth effect of real estate and the reduction of consumer confidence. The rapid growth of US citizen consumption on the two cornerstones of credit economy and wealth effect over the years is likely to decelerate obviously. Because China's exports to the United States are mainly consumer goods, the slowdown in the US consumption will be harmful to China's exports. Two, the policy effect of controlling excessive export growth and adjusting the foreign trade structure in 2007 was further clearly demonstrated in 2008. The pace of RMB appreciation has accelerated and the cost of production factors has gradually increased. Three, the international trade protectionism is rising again and trade frictions against China are increasing. For me

Although the pressure is difficult to form growth resistance, the industry will give their own views on the three factors that will affect the export next year.

First, will the US subprime debt cause a slowdown in the US economic growth, thereby reducing the US consumer's demand for "made in China"?

Fang Gang, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, pointed out that the fall in the US economic growth has limited impact on China's foreign trade export, because the dependence on the US market is decreasing.

At present, China's foreign trade in the Asia Pacific region has accounted for more than 40% of China's total foreign trade volume. Even if the US market has declined, as long as the Asia Pacific market is stable, there will be no big problem in foreign trade exports.

At the same time, the renminbi is depreciating against the euro.

According to customs statistics, the European Union, the United States and Japan as China's three largest trading partners, the total volume of bilateral trade increased by 27.3%, 15.7% and 14% respectively in the first half of November. The growth rate of bilateral trade between China and Europe has greatly exceeded that of bilateral trade, indicating that China's export growth to Europe has replaced the US market in a certain sense.

Secondly, the policy of restraining export growth too fast and the factors of rising costs will cause a large number of enterprises to go bankrupt and bankrupt.

Journalists have long tracked information from traditional export industries such as textiles, clothing, footwear, furniture and so on to show that in recent years, due to a series of factors such as RMB appreciation, shortage of land labor resources and rising cost of raw materials, coupled with the frequent occurrence of international trade friction, there are indeed a lot of small and medium enterprises failing to resist risks.

But we should also see that it is this series of baptism, which makes the era of low price competition gone and the export environment is getting better and better, which has also become the main reason for the above industry to maintain higher export growth in recent years.

Finally, although the international trade protectionist forces are on the rise, they believe that the "made in China" after the accession to the WTO, especially this year's countless trade frictions, has a more peaceful mentality and a strong foundation in dealing with them.

The biggest change of next year is: export growth may decline and surplus growth rate may turn the corner. This may bring about a change in industry growth. It shows that the era of universal prosperity of the external demand industry is going to be over, and the domestic demand industry is rising correspondingly. In the next two years, we may be faced with such a pformation process.

Xu Gang, managing director of CITIC Securities, said recently that he was looking ahead to the economic trend next year.