Historical Data Reveal That The Market Is Heading For &Nbsp; January Will Bring February Yang.

In the 21 year history of A shares, there were 11 in January, corresponding to February of that year.

With the rapid release of short selling energy on the first day of the year, the stock market in the two cities showed a narrow trend of volatility, with Shanghai stock index around Monday.

For the February trend, analysts believe that the current economic operation is at the bottom of synchronous indicators, leading indicators rebounded slightly, and the data released in February are mainly leading indicators, and believe that it will bring positive impact on the market.

At the same time, historical data also showed that the probability of red February was much higher than that of green February, especially after the emergence of red and red, and the statistical probability of red February was as high as 9.

February market nearly 80% red plate

According to statistics from the Securities Market Research Center, in the 21 year history of A shares since 1991, the number of months in the Shanghai stock index line has reached 16 points in February, with a spot ratio of 76.19%, of which 11 have been eliminated in January after January. The corresponding February line in February has 10 positive rates, accounting for 90.91%.

Data show that from 1991 to January, the annual rise of stock index in January was respectively 1991 (1.85%), 1992 (7%), 1993 (53.57%), 1997 (5.20%), 1997 (2.41%), ((12.32%)), ((10.47%)), ((6.26%)), ((8.35%)), ((4.14%), and 9.33% (9.33%). The corresponding corresponding increases were: 9.33%, 9.33%, ",", ",", ",", ",", ",", ",", "and".

One year's season is spring, and investors' expectations for red envelopes and Performance Red packages also increase the probability of the February red.

Analysts said that the current economic operation is at the bottom of synchronous indicators, leading indicators are small.

Shanghai stock index will run at 2100-2500

GF believes that the operation of the market in February will exactly reflect the characteristics of "dragon". In the macro background of downlink, the performance of Listed Companies in the fourth quarter of last year will show an accelerated decline.

The valuation base of performance support is being tested, and the constant favorable policies and funds will support the valuation from time to time. Changes in the overseas situation will also increase market complexity and volatility.

In February, the market will be strongly oscillating on the 2100-2500 point range. The market characteristics of opportunities and risks are particularly obvious.

Underestimate the value of the game, a non cyclical recovery.

Guo Hai Securities said that the impact of holiday factors on industrial enterprises' production and production before the Spring Festival made the overall data better than expected.

Corresponding to the available meso data, the price of periodic products has entered the platform stage after a substantial adjustment.

Considering the continuous credit release at the beginning of the year and the beginning of the traditional demand peak season for the cyclical industry in 2-3 months, the cyclical industry with a larger pre adjustment has rebounded significantly.

However, in the early stage, the "stabilization" pattern of monetary policy has been analyzed. The slowdown of investment growth makes the cyclical industry in the middle term still in a downward channel. The performance of short-term cyclical industries is more interpreted for the game of funds and the expectation of economic recovery under the credit push, but it is too early to say that it is the beginning of economic cyclical recovery.

The short-term market will continue to focus on the undervalued industry and the pessimism expected from the performance announcement.

Huarong Securities believes that the Shanghai stock index is likely to break through the 60 day moving average, such as the domestic policy easing measures such as lowering the deposit reserve ratio.

In the United States led developed economies to increase the intensity of policy easing, domestic foreign exchange holdings declined, and reverse repurchase expired in large numbers, there is a possibility of lowering the reserve ratio. If the reserve ratio of 0.5 percentage points is lowered, the bank can relax 400 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the new credit in February may maintain a strong momentum. This may help the Shanghai stock index to break through the suppression of the 60 day moving average. However, under the condition that the macro and micro fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market is hard to break through the half year line effectively.

In terms of investment strategy, analysts believe that the blue chip stocks represented by banks and petroleum and petrochemical industries started to start in 2011. At present, the market hot spots have been successfully switched to blue chip stocks. It is suggested that small and medium sized stocks such as small and medium sized boards, gem and other small stocks should be avoided. The focus of attention will be on the defensive and offensive blue chip varieties, taking the initiative to evade risks, preserve their strength and wait for action.