Zhong Hua Cotton: Reasons For Zheng'S Strength

Since mid February, the price of Xinjiang cotton or real estate cotton has gradually risen from the price of futures and electronics to the level before the Spring Festival. The price of Xinjiang cotton warehouse in the three grade public inspection is generally 21000-21200 yuan / ton, but the actual turnover of 20800 yuan / ton is also somewhat difficult. What's more, cotton mill's demand for high-grade cotton is still very weak. Cotton enterprises have to turn more energy to low grade cotton or real estate cotton in the wake of the continuous increase in gauze inventory, the gradual tightening of cash flow and the substantial increase in raw material and labor costs.

Although a large number of grade two or three and four lint entered the national storage warehouse (by the end of February, the number of national cotton reserves will exceed 2 million 680 thousand tons), plus 1 million tons of imported cotton from the national reserve, plus 20-30 tons of state reserve stocks in the year, nearly 4 million tons of national reserves were both a guarantee for cotton supply in 2012/13 and a "top" trend for cotton prices.

What is the reason for supporting the current electronic disk?

First, from the perspective of Xinjiang cotton spot, the price of matching and futures contracts is only the spot price plus bank interest, warehousing and other expenses. Therefore, the electronic disk shows the selling price of Xinjiang cotton, rather than the price of real cotton and outer cotton, so the foundation of electronic disk is relatively strong.

Second, the state began to purchase and store from 2011 and September, and the standard grade cotton was 19800 yuan / ton, then the financial cost, warehousing and pportation for 3-5 months were calculated. Futures and matching price were only the cumulative price of cotton processing cotton.

Third, about 60% of the domestic cotton output in 2011/12 will enter the National Reserve Bank, and the liquidity of the resources will be greatly weakened. Once the economic data in Europe and the United States continue to recover, the data will be confirmed by heating and domestic demand.

Fourthly, the high price expectation of state purchase and storage in the year of 2012/13 makes it reasonable to buy the funds and sell the cotton enterprises at a low price.

According to rumor, in the 28 national conference, the purchase price of national cotton standard grade cotton in 2012/13 is 20400 yuan / ton seems to have reached a consensus.

Fifthly, the relevant departments of the state try to regulate cotton import progress by strictly controlling the cotton import quotas, thereby stabilizing domestic cotton market and pushing up domestic cotton prices.

It is understood that since January, the state has issued 894 thousand tons of 1% quotas and 500 thousand tons of quasi tariff processing trade quotas (600 thousand tons have not been released, rumors are still processing trade), so for cotton importers, currently only 1% of the tariff quotas available, a large number of cotton hoarding in the

Its six, the US and European economic data, employment data continued to rebound, the expected acceleration of the global economic recovery and the adjustment of China's monetary policy is expected to be stronger.

However, China's liquidity has not entered the real economy for a long time. It is optimistic or somewhat blind on the stock market and commodities, and this year is the election year for the United States and Europe. It does not exclude the need for short-term political and capital "whitewash".