The Change Of Demand Structure Brings The Intensive Development Of Chinese Clothing.

　 Which water source will quench thirst?

The garment industry in 2011 was more disappointed than the financial crisis. The economic indicators of the whole year were "higher and lower, but the growth rate slowed down month by month". The total number of garment exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and domestic sales in the "price increase" declined.

in order to Cotton prices big The lagging effect of volatility and the high cost of raw materials and excipients brought by subsequent chain reactions are the key words that can not be evaded in 2011, in order to digest the high expected labor cost jump, and become the "fat powder" of domestic sales, exports and quality and efficiency data.

At the beginning of the year, the high expectations, the year-round crazy price rises and the end of the year ended. The impact of the bomb on the front of the garment industry in 2012 was a bomb that would explode if it was not careful. Inventory will be fermented, upstream inventory has begun to ferment, converted to supply difficulty and financial difficulty to pass on to the apparel industry; downstream channel inventory will also ferment, turning to greater difficulty in picking up goods and capital pressure. This is just one of the many problems that the clothing industry may encounter in 2012.

"Internal and external difficulties" is an indisputable fact. The demand is like the "water source" of the industry. Both domestic demand and external demand are easy to be worried. However, relatively speaking, the domestic demand market is near, not as remote as the international market, so many export oriented enterprises resolutely embark on a long and hard road to domestic sales.

Two water sources, two kinds of water quality, which one is more thirsty? How should we choose? Objective analysis is not difficult to find that both the external demand and domestic demand have their own problems, but there are still room for expansion and feasible opportunities.

In recent years, domestic demand has been particularly eye-catching under the spotlight of China's rapid economic development. It has quickly become the "undisputed" industrial development initiative, but has external demand been squeezed out? Can domestic demand really replace external demand?

　　 Garment industry in China It has been highly dependent on exports, but the driving force of development has rapidly added another hand to domestic demand from one hand of exports. It is clear that the power of domestic demand will continue to increase rapidly in recent years until finally stable.

At present, China's per capita purchasing power is not strong. From the perspective of clothing consumption ability, the United States, Europe, Japan, China and the per capita disposable income of all the "people" have been divided into "Chinese with the same purchasing power" (which is called the unit consumption population). The unit consumption population of the United States is nearly 2.3 times that of China, and the European Union's unit consumption population is 2.6 times that of that of China. The Japanese population also has a unit consumption population equivalent to 80% of China's GDP. Of course, China is rapidly narrowing its gap with the developed countries in the world, but we need to make a long time to prepare.

For the Chinese market, we have the advantages of geography, culture, inheritance and even blood. In the long run, these soft and perceptual advantages are irreplaceable. The global market is different. All our advantages may become the advantages of other countries, and the international market is easy to get rid of. Can we simply comment on the current two sources of water - the external demand is the foundation, the domestic demand is the growth point, the former needs maintenance and repair, and the latter needs replenishment and supply.

It seems that both the external demand and domestic demand have the function of quench their thirst. It is foolish to break the water supply, and it is difficult to use both ends. Overlooking the panorama, introspection on oneself, and how to make trade-offs are also needed by enterprises.

Water supply for external demand -- the outbreak of diversion of orders is still full of opportunities.

　 1 exports shrink, international share shrinks

Export volume and volume increase month by month

According to customs statistics, in 2011 1~12, China's apparel and accessories exports totaled 153 billion 219 million US dollars, an increase of 18.34% over the same period last year. The number of exports was 29 billion 223 million, down 1.10% from the same period last year, and the export unit price was 4.3 US dollars / piece, up 20.11% over the same period last year. Among them, the export of knitted garments was US $80 billion 168 million, an increase of 20.17% over the same period last year, with an export volume of 20 billion 765 million, a decrease of 0.43% compared with the same period last year. The export of woven garments was US $63 billion 77 million, an increase of 16.02% over the same period last year, and the number of exports was 8 billion 462 million, down 2.71% from the same period last year.

In 2011, the volume and amount of clothing exports in China showed a trend of falling month by month. The year-on-year increase in clothing exports in the whole year dropped by 14.82 percentage points compared with the increase in 2010, especially in 9~12 months, with a drop of more than 10% over the same period in October and November. Although export volume has maintained positive growth under the promotion of export unit price, the increase has been lower than 10% since October. The annual average export price increase continued to rise, an increase of 20.11% over the same period last year, an increase of 14.51 percentage points over the same period in 2010, but it also showed a monthly downward trend in growth rate, and the growth rate of export prices in December has dropped to 11%. But the "price increase" is still the main driving force for the increase in export volume.

The three type of export competition countries have no absolute advantage.

The monthly consumption of the three traditional export markets in Europe, the United States and Japan is basically stable, and the fluctuation is not severe. The EU's clothing consumption situation is the worst and the decline is obvious, but the oscillation interval is still within the upper and lower 5%. The performance of the three types of export competition countries, the traditional export giants, the emerging competitive countries and the location dominant countries, does not show which side has absolute superiority.

Clothing is a relatively small market demand elasticity of retail goods, demand in the short term volatility has predictability and continuity, but demand structure and demand trend will change. This tendency makes "order transfer" seem to sweep across China's garment export processing industry overnight.

　 2 " Order transfer It's not horrible.

How terrible is "order transfer"? In 2011, the location advantage countries won more obvious development opportunities, but they accounted for less than 20% of the total export volume, which made a great threat to China's garment export processing industry for a time. Our most powerful opponent is concentrated in the rapidly expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia. However, the foundation of the industrial and industrial chain that has accumulated for 30 years in China is unlikely to be replaced in the short term. Although the competitive countries in Southeast Asia may be at their best, Rome is not built in a day.

This raises a question for us: what is the competitive advantage of our export in the present and future of high processing cost? What is needed to maintain and what needs to be changed?

　 3 "efficiency advantage" instead of "cost advantage"

Labour productivity rose more than wage increases.

In the economic theory of international division of labor, there are two important elements: price and efficiency, absolute price difference will bring the division of labor into account, and the relative efficiency difference will also bring absolute division advantage.

That is to say, although China's garment processing industry is stranded in the rigidity and rapid rise of labor force and raw and auxiliary materials, the unit output of unit cost input can be increased by increasing the productivity of labor, and as long as the growth of unit output is higher than the growth of unit investment, the efficiency advantage will be obtained. In terms of the current rising labor costs, the increase in labour productivity is higher than the wage increase, and the extra wage paid out will receive a bigger "extra" return, and the relative advantage of "price" will be obtained through digital conversion to the book.

Internationalization is a concept of pluralism and omnibearing.

If we look at the ratio of input to output, we may as well let go of our imagination and let us invest a lot of lower means. One of them is internationalization -- creating an international supply chain. The use of international resources for us may have some output of interest, but as long as the result is the recovery of greater interests.

If our industry can only circulate risks and costs in the body, the focus will always be self attack, and it is wise to dredge the pressure through cardiopulmonary bypass. Internationalization is diversified and ultimately omnibearing. It can be internationalized supply, internationalization of channels, internationalization of research and development, internationalization of brands, and internationalization of talents.

Export is the interaction between people. In the meantime, the soft factors that directly affect the emotional soft rib are often anti customer oriented, such as the service of saving the mind, the labor, the exceeding vision and the reliable character. These soft power constitute our position in the international supply chain. We can be followers or organizers or even leaders.

　 4 "structural adjustment" wins new water sources

The proportion of products with relatively high export value increases.

In 2011, the growth of China's clothing export volume mainly depended on "rising prices", and the structural adjustment of export products was also quietly proceeding. The average export price of export products exceeding the average increase in 2011 was 5.05 US dollars per piece, the average export volume and amount increased by 7.70% and 31.77% respectively, while the average export price of export products below the average increase was 4.01 dollars / piece, and the average export volume and amount increased by -5.74% and 18.32% respectively.

In 2011, the export unit price was higher than the average export unit price, the average unit price was 6.86 USD / piece, the average export volume and the amount increased by 0.48% and 18.76% respectively, while the export unit price below the average unit price was 2.06 USD / piece, the average export volume and the gold amount increased by -3.69% and 13.62% respectively, which was obviously lower than the export price increase with higher unit price. On the whole, the proportion of exports of products with relatively high export value is increasing, and the adjustment of product structure has played a certain role in maintaining the positive growth of export volume.

Exports to emerging markets are larger than traditional ones.

In the 1~12 month of 2011, the volume of clothing exports from the mainland to the EU, the United States, Japan and China continued to grow. The export volume increased by 20.16%, 11.75%, 19.44% and 3.55% respectively over the same period of 2011. The export volume of these traditional markets was 99 billion 433 million US dollars, accounting for 64.90% of the total clothing exports of the country, an increase of 16.14% over the same period last year, pulling 10.67 percentage points of clothing exports. The total export volume for emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and Russia is 24 billion 531 million US dollars, accounting for 16.01% of the total garment export volume of the country, up 29.25% from the same period last year, pulling 4.29 percentage points of clothing exports.

Meanwhile, in the 1~12 month of 2011, the number of garment exports to the EU, the United States and China in Hongkong declined, and the volume of exports to Japan increased by only 0.26%. The export volume of these traditional markets was 16 billion 934 million, accounting for 57.95% of the total number of clothing exports nationwide, down 4.74% from the same period last year. The total number of exports to emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and Russia is 6 billion 162 million, accounting for 21.09% of the total volume of clothing exports nationwide, up 7.87% over the same period last year. The growth rate of exports to emerging markets is much larger than that of traditional markets.

　 5 "rising price" to whitewash domestic sales data

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2011 1~12 yuan was 18 trillion and 122 billion 580 million yuan, an increase of 17.1% in nominal terms (11.3% in real terms after deducting price factors), which was 0.1 percentage points faster than that in the three quarter. Among them, the retail sales of Enterprises above Designated Size (unit) amounted to 84609 billion yuan, an increase of 22.9% over the previous year, and the retail sales of clothing commodities increased by 795 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year, accounting for 9.4% of the total retail sales of Enterprises above designated size. The growth of clothing consumption has been better than the overall consumption growth of consumer goods since March 2009. In 2011, the total retail sales of clothing commodities in China exceeded 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan.

The sales data of 3000 retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce showed that clothing consumption grew steadily in November. In November 2011, sales of clothing products increased by 14.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2 percentage points higher than that in October. Of them, clothing sales increased by 15.4% over the same period last year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in October, and domestic demand for clothing was relatively stable.

According to the China Business Information Center, sales volume, quantity and average price of major large-scale retail business clothing increased by 22.96% in the 1~10 months of 2011 compared with the same period last year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~11, the clothing retail price index rose to 101.7, and the clothing consumer price index rose to 102. In November, the clothing consumer prices in November increased by 3.5%. Garment factory prices also hit a record high. In 1~11, clothing manufacturers' factory prices rose by 4.3% over the same period last year, 5.3 percentage points higher than the end of 2010. In November, the producer prices of clothing producers increased by 3.8% in the same month. According to the China Business Information Center, the average price of clothing sales in major retail businesses in China increased by 17.07% over the same period in 1~10.

　　 6 industry chain two way chain reaction highlights

The increase in price and sales volume increased considerably.

"The price of Chinese clothing is generally higher than that of similar European and American clothing prices", which was criticized in 2011. It is not just that international brands are expensive in China, but even a lot of Chinese brands themselves are too expensive. This may be something that the international clothing industry does not understand very well. First, how dare the Chinese clothing brand use "price" arbitrarily? This market reaction activity is very high, and once it loses, it is difficult to pick up the strategic factors of the end. Secondly, how can the Chinese clothing market accept such amazing speed of increase in price and how can consumers be indifferent to such a high price?

From the price and quantity of clothing sold by the 3000 key retail enterprises in the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, we can see a dramatic scene: before 2011, the price increase and sales volume increase curve were parallel, and after 2011, especially after June, they deviated like the bell mouth, and sales growth increased in 2011. In the face of high prices, consumers finally choose collective betrayal.

Of course, it can not be all attributed to the "price increase", late winter and early spring festival, greatly reducing the value of clothing sales throughout the year, the highlight of "winter clothing" performance time. Winter clothing is mostly dependent on the weather. Sales time and climate change are almost decisive for winter sales. For example, in the severe winter of 2008, many outdated stocks that many brands had not been asked for years were swept away.

Slow growth of new projects shows weak investment

Weak domestic demand is necessarily corresponding to weak supply, but interaction and mutual lag effect. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~12, China's Enterprises above Designated Size completed 25 billion 420 million garment production, an increase of 8.14% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.76 percentage points from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, industry investment is tightening and the number of new construction projects has slowed down. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~12, the apparel industry above Designated Size Enterprises actually completed investment of 207 billion 280 million yuan, an increase of 41.63% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.67 percentage points over the end of 2010, and the number of construction projects, new projects and completed projects increased by 10.58%, 7.05% and 22.85% respectively. Although the increase in investment in clothing industry is very eye-catching in all industries, the initial growth of new projects shows that the investment in clothing industry is not too high.

PMI lag effect indicates that the market outlook is uncertain.

According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the national purchasing managers index PMI was 50.5 in January 2012. Among them, the textile and garment industry PMI ring fell by 6.4% and 4.3% respectively. The clothing industry PMI remained at 53.5 highs, while the textile industry PMI dropped to 36.7, down 7.1% from the same period last year, approaching the historical low of 28.7 of the financial crisis in 2009. If this group of data shows that the clothing industry is bright at the moment, so long as the textile industry "purchasing managers" is the downstream garment industry, it is probably very difficult to be optimistic.

7 "inventory" eventually became a financial pressure.

In 2011, a major hidden danger caused by "high before and after low" is "inventory". The inventory problem is not significant at present because these stocks are in the downstream of the clothing industry in the form of channel inventory, which is in the commercial field, that is, dealers. But channel is the lifeblood of a brand enterprise, and what can not be sold is the burden of cash. In 2012, domestic enterprises are likely to face the pressure of two pressures. One is the pressure from the upstream textile industry in the supply chain. On the other hand, it comes from the reduction of orders, the increase in receivables, the demand for recycling or reduction of inventories in the downstream distribution industry, and the huge inventory and financial pressure required by brand companies to invest in channel maintenance.

Inventory of textile and apparel industry in recent years

In 2011, there were obvious signs of adjustment in the domestic market. Exports to domestic sales, wholesale to retail, and low end to high end led to an increase in the number of competitors. And competition is no longer between brand and brand. The rapid expansion of e-commerce has even resulted in competition among different business models. In addition, the accelerated entry of the two or three tier international brands and the acceleration of the sinking of the international popular brand channels will inevitably exacerbate the market competition.

8, "intensive" development path is clear.

The change of supply and demand and the balance between supply and demand are ultimately reflected in the industry performance. In 2011, the National Bureau of statistics raised the scope of statistics above the scale from 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan, which can be said to be an important factor in keeping the above scale data optimistic. As an industry with a high degree of marketization and a large scale of competition, Matthew effect has long been shown in the clothing industry, and high-quality industrial resources have already gathered to the dominant enterprises in accordance with the principle of "maximizing efficiency and minimizing risks". There are about 10 garment enterprises in China, of which 1 are over scale enterprises.

　　 Performance of Enterprises above Designated Size in garment industry in 2011

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011, the total industrial output value, main business income and total profit of garment enterprises in China reached a high growth rate of 27.19%, 27.33% and 32.92% respectively. The average gross profit margin and profit rate of the industry reached 16.30% and 6.17% respectively, which increased 2.53% and 4.39% respectively compared with the same period in 2010. The total assets contribution rate and net assets yield rate increased 5.19% and 6.55% respectively over the same period in 2010, while the three fee ratio was 8.01%, which was reduced by 5.19% compared with the same period last year.

　 Quality and efficiency of garment enterprises above Designated Size in 2011

According to statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~11, the number of employees above designated size increased by 5.38% compared with the same period last year, and labor productivity increased by 20.8%.

Although the enterprises above Designated Size have achieved good economic performance indicators, the downward pressure can not be ignored. The decline in the growth of total industrial output will inevitably affect the decline of other indicators. Especially noteworthy is that both the main business revenue growth and profit growth continued to fall. Although the profit growth is still higher than the main business revenue growth, the downward trend of profit growth is even more fierce. In 2012, most enterprises unanimously lowered the business marketing growth plan. "Maintaining stability" has become the main keynote of the garment industry in the first half of 2012.

The signs of "Galaxy development" in China's clothing industry are more obvious. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are surrounded by different levels or different sub sites around a large industrial group, or loose or tightly become part of a large industrial group or part of a business. In 2012, new development models such as industrial intensification, capitalization and consortium development will be more obvious and will accelerate the industry's shuffling.