Home >

2012 What About Textile And Clothing?

2012/3/8 17:01:00 79

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

In 2011, the opening year of 12th Five-Year, the textile industry experienced many challenges in its economic operation.

The growth situation is rather difficult due to the multiple constraints of international demand, domestic raw material price fluctuations, monetary policy tightening, RMB appreciation, factors and labor costs rising.

What will happen in 2012? What will happen to the environment at home and abroad? How to judge the situation of export and domestic sales? How does the market of raw materials change? What is the trend of textile investment? What are the new growth points of the textile industry? How should we constantly promote the adjustment of industrial structure and the upgrading of industrial upgrading?

So many questions need to be explored, which opens up a challenging space for the China spinning round table forum in the new year.

The changing environment of the economy

2011 is the year of 12th Five-Year, and on the whole,

Textile industry

Structural adjustment and industrial upgrading continue to push forward. The growth of all indicators is basically normal and the overall operation is stable.

However, the operation of the industry is facing a series of factors, such as the obvious increase of domestic risks, the rise and fall of raw material prices, the tightening of financing environment, the increase of domestic factor and labor cost, and the slow growth of external demand.

? overall profit growth rate has dropped faster.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011, 1-11 Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 49526 billion yuan in total industrial output value, an increase of 27.5% billion yuan, an increase of 27.5% over the same period last year, 30 million 740 thousand tons of chemical fiber production, an increase of 14.9%, an increase of 26 million 320 thousand tons of yarn production, an increase of 12.5% tons, a 56 billion 800 million increase of cloth output, an increase of 13.3, an increase of 22 billion 900 million percent of garments, and a basically normal production in the industry. However, influenced by factors such as fluctuating raw material prices, tight electricity consumption, rising wage costs and insufficient external demand, the growth rate of production continued to decline, and the slowdown in the growth of products in the middle and lower reaches was more obvious.

Compared with the scale of one season, the output value of Enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.1 percentage points in 1-11 months, the output of chemical fiber decreased by 3.1 percentage points, the growth of yarn production decreased by 0.1 percentage points, the output of cloth decreased by 6.2 percentage points, and the output of clothing decreased by 6.1 percentage points.

According to the China Textile Industry Federation's survey data of the 82 key textile industrial clusters in the country, the output value of enterprises under the scale of the cluster area increased by 0.3% in 1-10, and the growth rate dropped by 9.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter.

According to customs data, in the 1-11 months of 2011, the total export volume of textile garments was 231 billion 800 million US dollars, up 2.1% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6 percentage points lower than that at the end of April.

It is estimated that by the optimization of the export structure and the increase of production costs, the textile price in 2011 increased by 20.4% and the total export volume increased by 98% in 1-11 months.

Excluding price factors, 1-11 months textile

clothing

The number of exports increased by 0.5% year-on-year, of which the volume of garment exports increased by 0.1%. Some export orders were pferred to the surrounding low-cost countries. The demand for international market terminals was not optimistic.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of commodities above the county level increased by 23.9% over the past 1-11 months, and the domestic sales value of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 40101 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3% over the same period last year, 14.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

Domestic sales accounted for 82.9% of the sales value, 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but the domestic demand increased in 2011, and the actual growth rate in 2011 decreased by 4.4 percentage points over the same period last year, down 0.4 percentage points compared with the 1 quarter of 2011, and the growth rate of domestic sales value of Enterprises above Designated Size dropped 3.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter.

In 2011 1-11, the total fixed investment of the textile industry over 5 million yuan was 610 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 34.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points over the 1-3 month period, the 1.8% increase in the new construction project, the slowdown in investment in the new construction project, the tight financing environment of the enterprises, and the lack of funds, which also reflected the decline in market confidence and willingness to invest.

In terms of the regional distribution of new investment, the investment in the central and western regions increased fairly rapidly, which accounted for a further increase. In the 1-11 month, the investment in fixed assets in the central and western enterprises increased by 55.7% and 51.8% respectively, significantly higher than the 23% growth rate in the eastern region.

The proportion of new investment in central and Western China accounted for 30.6% and 8.1% respectively, 4.1 and 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the pace of textile industry pferring to the central and western regions continued to accelerate.

Show that the investment growth slowed down and the regional layout continued to optimize.

Although the textile and garment industry is facing many pressures in 2011, structural adjustment and industrial upgrading continue to push forward, and the quality of operation has been steadily raised, which has increased by 21.1% compared with the same period last year. The production efficiency of the industry has increased steadily, and the proportion of the three expenses is 5.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

Among them, the tightening of money resulted in a substantial increase in interest expense. However, the proportion of financial expenses accounted for three was basically the same as that of the previous year, indicating that the management level continued to improve, and the quality and efficiency of asset management were basically good.

The industry overall profits, but the growth rate of profits fell faster.

The quality of operation is improved, and domestic demand expands to bring profit to the textile industry and achieve sustained profitability.

In 2011 1-11, textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 215 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year, with a profit margin of 5%, unchanged from the same period last year.

However, due to the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the increase in the cost of production and agricultural resources, the industry's profit growth continued to shrink. The growth rate in 1-11 months was 24.6 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. In October, the profit deflation was only 71.8%, which was 40 percentage points lower than the beginning of the year.

According to the key industry cluster survey data of the China Federation of textile industry 1-11 months, small business profits increased by 11.4%, the growth rate was less than 40% of the above scale enterprises, and the export processing small business efficiency decline was more prominent. Among the garment industrial clusters whose proportion of 9 exports was greater than 20%, the total profits of Enterprises above designated size increased by only 4.7%.

Complex external economic environment

Wang Tiankai, President of the China Federation of textile industry, pointed out that the environment facing the textile industry in 2012 is still very complex. From the perspective of the environment, the development of the industry will be tightened.

On the one hand, the European debt crisis continues and the world economic recovery is weak, which will have a significant negative impact on consumption.

Especially the developed countries such as the United States and Europe, which are the main consumers of the international market, have a weak economic recovery, and the unemployment rate remains high. The demand for the international market is expected to remain weak.

Export enterprises are facing insufficient demand, and competition pressures and trade frictions will become more prominent.

On the other hand, the difficulty of consumption growth is increasing, and the demand for international investment has slowed down. The pressure of China's economic growth in 2012 is expected to increase further.

With the fluctuation of raw material prices, the increase of labor force and other factors and the fact that the financing environment of SMEs has not yet reached substantial improvement, textile industry will face greater difficulties as a competitive industry.

He said: "despite this, the basic attributes of textile and clothing as necessities of life also determine that domestic and international market demand will not shrink substantially. Especially, there is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of our domestic demand market. The income growth of urban and rural residents will remain at a slower pace than economic growth. Policies and measures to improve people's livelihood and expand domestic demand will also continue to be implemented.

With the gradual easing of inflation pressure, the domestic demand for textile and clothing has been steadily expanded and will continue to be the primary support for the development of the textile industry.

At the same time, we should see that although the international market competition is more intense, the mature and complete industrial system of our textile industry has formed an integrated competitive advantage, and the quality and market share still have obvious international competitive advantages.

Wang Tiankai believes that tightening external environment has formed a market forced mechanism, bringing a new round of shuffling to promote industrial upgrading and adjustment.

Therefore, it is expected that the production and marketing efficiency of China's textile industry will continue to increase in 2012, and the main operational indicators of Enterprises above designated size are expected to maintain a two digit growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down compared with the previous year.

Downward trend, the terminal market will have less space to increase the price of consumer goods, and it is expected that the decline in the export and profit growth rate of the industry will be more obvious. The difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, especially the processing SMEs, will be more prominent. According to the above judgment on the overall economic situation of the textile industry, we should conscientiously carry out the central economic work conference in 2012, the spirit of the overall keynote of steady progress, expand domestic demand as the strategic basis, and make full use of the objective and sober understanding of the grim situation facing the new year and all kinds of difficult problems in order to further enhance our confidence in the development of the industry in the light of the Central Committee's efforts to speed up economic restructuring and strengthen the work of independent and coordinated development. Because of the economy

Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed the current state of affairs at the macro level.

Pan Jiancheng pointed out: "just released the fourth quarter business boom survey results, we can see that the business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index both fall, how to understand both down.

I think there are several points: first, the index is falling, but we often pay attention to the relative number of economic growth, but we do not pay attention to the absolute number.

Secondly, entrepreneurs' confidence is green, reflecting the fact that the confidence of entrepreneurs in the current society has fallen considerably.

When the whole economy is faced with some difficulties, confidence often has an enlarged effect.

Worrying about economic growth is very important for employment.

Today, there is not a large number of unemployment and migrant workers returning home.

The potential growth rate of the economy means growth under full employment.

Now the economic growth rate is just a regression to the potential growth rate. It is a rational regression and is the result of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Pan Jiancheng also talked about the highly prosperous IT industry, which has enjoyed a boom of 65% in three quarters.

It illustrates the role of national subjective policies in promoting strategic emerging industries and promoting the generation of information technology.

Second, objectively speaking, when domestic enterprises are in difficulty, they also take the initiative to innovate, break through and upgrade their structures. It is very important to improve the management level and technology level of enterprises through information technology, and create huge demand for information and IT industry.

He also said that wholesale and retail trade, social services, accommodation and catering industry were relatively stable, relatively high, significantly higher than that of industry.

It shows that these industries are closely related to consumption, consumption is growing steadily, and even a breakthrough is brewing. This is also the reason why the textile and garment industry still maintains a relatively good situation in the face of falling external demand.

Consumption is a function of income, and income will reach a certain level, which is bound to increase the driving force of consumption.

Speaking of exports, Pan Jiancheng said: "the textile industry is very dependent on exports. This dependence relies on the analysis of the international situation. The key point is to see the US and Europe.

Today, there are different situations in the US and Europe. Not all the same. The US economy has been recovering moderately recently. We can see that consumer confidence is on the rise and the unemployment rate is decreasing recently.

Of course, I can not say that it is sustainable, but at least it shows that the US economy has not gone further.

This provided a relatively good condition for our exports in 2012, but the problem is that the European debt crisis and a series of tightening policies needed to deal with the European debt crisis will have an impact.

Then, the European debt crisis is not a short-term solution. This is a problem. "

Zhang Yansheng, the former director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said about the impact of the European debt crisis on textile and clothing. "The economy has internal rates. If the confidence of global investors can reach an agreement quickly within the internal political contest, then the current plight of Europe can be bottomed out, so that European bond debt will not be out of control."

Since the European economy is, after all, the richest economy in the world, the Europeans are fully capable of saving themselves. If Europeans can achieve consistency in the 27 countries in politics, and with international aid and the same boat, the crisis will not actually deteriorate as people think.

But if we fail to do so, it will be a disaster for the world and for Europe.

For textile and garment enterprises, Zhang Yansheng believes that due to the European debt crisis, there are still problems in global investor confidence, so the euro is depreciating.

Wang Wei, deputy director of the Institute of market economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said: "after 30 years of rapid growth, our current economic downturn has the cause of our economic cycle adjustment, and also has external environmental impacts. More importantly, after 30 years of rapid growth, Chinese economy will not develop in the past with the rapid growth trend.

In fact, from the experience of various countries in the world, we can see such a clear fact that according to the international dollar size in 1990, the speed of economic growth of all countries will change at the stage of GDP per capita of 8 thousand and 10 thousand dollars. Japan, Korea, Germany and the United States all have such changes.

China is at such a stage of change. The change of the current economic operation and its speed may also indicate that we are at such a stage.

What is more important is that we can bring our potential growth rate into play in the future growth, and at the same time, make our market economy system more perfect.

Redemption of enterprises

Since the environment is not strong enough, 2012 is bound to be a complicated year. Then the enterprises only have to push forward, fear the storm, and rely on their own efforts to realize their self salvation. It is called "heaven helps those who help themselves".

{page_break}

Dialectics of danger and machine

"In the past 2011, the global political and economic situation was complex and severe, and systemic risk and market risk increased significantly compared with 2010. Under the multiple market factors, the domestic textile industry has ushered in the most difficult year since 2008."

Zhao Boya, chairman of the China Textile Group and Secretary of the Party committee, made a good summary of the overall situation of China's textile and garment industry in 2011.

Take cotton spinning enterprises as an example, in 2011, the cotton market base declined, and the foreign market shrank orders, and other unfavorable factors. Cotton textile enterprises were struggling, products were unsalable, and the inventory of finished products increased sharply. In addition, tight monetary policy made the financing difficulty of enterprises increase, resulting in many cotton spinning enterprises' capital turnover and production and operation were extremely difficult, and only by limiting production or stopping production, could they relieve the pressure.

But this may not be the worst. The international and domestic situation we face in 2012 is even more complicated.

The latest forecast data from the United Nations show that global economic growth this year will drop by 2.6%, far below its previous 4.6% forecast.

The textile and garment industry in China can not do anything in this environment. The environment facing the textile industry in 2012 is still very complex. From the perspective of the environment, the development of the textile industry will be tighter, especially in the first half of the year.

In addition, the downward pressure on China's economic growth is expected to increase further in 2012.

Fluctuations in raw material prices, labor and other factors prices rise, small and medium

Enterprise financing

If the environment has not yet achieved substantial improvement, textile industry will face greater difficulties as a competitive industry.

However, there are still some technologies that need to be captured and controlled in a dynamic way.

Because "danger" and "machine" have always been inseparable, and under certain conditions can be pformed, this is the philosophy dialectics tells us the truth.

Looking at the European debt crisis, the problem now is not the United States but the European Union, because the European debt crisis is spreading. In the past, it was a marginal country. Now there are some mainstream European countries' debt crisis spreading.

What we are concerned about is that the European Union is a major market for China's textile and garment industry. Under the situation of Europe's debt crisis spreading, what kind of situation may we have this year's export to Europe? This is the concern of many industries.

For this problem, Zhang Yansheng, the former director of the national development and Reform Commission's Foreign Economic Research Institute, also believes that in 2012, the European and American economies will still be bad.

He analyzed that one is lack of demand, the other is lack of confidence, and the third is lack of means.

"Some economists in the United States, including some important officials, have expressed concern about whether the European and American economies will fall into Japanese style, a relatively long economic stagnation, and the other side is very concerned about whether China and emerging markets will slow down. That is to say, what is the driving force and engine of world economic growth this year?

In particular, the impact of the European debt crisis on textile and garment enterprises is that there are still problems in global investor confidence, so the euro is depreciating. "

However, the seemingly desperate situation still has opportunities.

"Europe's main economies, such as those of Germany, should be told that the current economic situation is relatively stable.

Therefore, in this case, our textile and garment industry, as a competitive industry in China, will still have opportunities in Europe even in 2012.

Especially for excellent enterprises, there are still big business opportunities this year.

Zhang Yansheng said with certainty.

The analysis of Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of statistics, shows more optimism.

In his view, the confidence of entrepreneurs in the current society has fallen considerably.

Back to 3 years ago, we will find that when the whole economy is facing some difficulties, confidence often has an enlarged effect.

That is to say, the enterprise itself is not so bad, but because of the worries of many people, so confidence has fallen sharply.

So he said: "at this time, we need to look at the problem from a historical perspective.

Now the relative number is going down, but the absolute amount is going up.

Compared to 10 years ago, the base number has been very different. When China's per capita GDP is close to US $5 thousand, the economic growth rate reaches 9%. This growth rate is not low but very high. "

Create enterprise's own excitement

"No historical disaster is not compensated by historical progress."

This is a famous saying by Engels, quoted by Xu Jianmin, general manager of Sanyang Textile Co., Ltd., to explain the openness and confidence of an enterprise as an operator in the harsh external environment.

Moreover, he also suggested that other enterprises should grasp these points when the market situation is uncertain in 2012.

First of all, stick to the positioning of the enterprise itself. "No matter it is high-end positioning, middle end positioning or low-end positioning, we must stick to it and do not change it casually."

Because "the environment is too complicated now, it is possible to die if there are many macroeconomic policies that are not yet landing."

Therefore, in Xu Jianmin's view, adhering to the policy can enable enterprises to walk on the path and enter a road. If we change our strategy at this time, we may go to a blind alley along the road, so sticking to the strategy is very important.

The second point is to maintain valuable customers, because "the market is the basis for the survival of enterprises, the customer is the basis for the survival of enterprises", but the customers are big and small, the quality is high and low, so we must maintain good quality customers.

He also joked with the name of a song, which is called "special love to special you". "We should give special care to our larger customers, so we can pass this period."

The third is to create excitement. "If enterprises do enlarge the difficulties, the enterprises will not have the way to live, so they have to find happiness from them, which is to create excitement."

As for how to create exciting points? Xu Jianmin's point of view is that macroscopical things can't be changed, because as an enterprise, you can't adapt to the outside gate, but you can only adapt to it.

Specifically, the so-called excitement point of manufacture is nothing more than technological innovation, and some strategic adjustment and operation mechanism adjustment.

In fact, that is, practicing internal strength.

Speaking of technological innovation, in this respect, Mr.Babacan, President of orrican Textile Group, said that textile is a very basic material, but its use is very varied and extensive.

Therefore, new technology and innovation can help enterprises reduce production costs and create new features and characteristics of textiles, and optimize business processes of enterprises.

Under this concept, orrican Textile Group has made every effort to adopt new innovations, new solutions and new materials to reduce costs and to provide more textile fiber materials more efficiently. This undoubtedly makes the market of orrican Textile Group wider.

It is understood that they are now more and more smart textiles are used in the field of clothing.

"Innovation can be said to be the Holy Grail of the textile industry. Through innovation, we can build a broader market and expand wider fields in the world."

Mr.Babacan's sentence should apply to all Chinese textile and garment enterprises.

Similarly, because of the excitement of his own creation, Xu Weimin, chairman of Jiangsu's Dong Du Textile Group, has successfully crossed all kinds of "rapids". The total sales at home and abroad have exceeded 5 billion, and the total sales volume has increased considerably over the same period last year.

"Last year, due to various uncertainties, I was also very worried about the development of the whole enterprise at that time. Especially when the policy was not stable enough, I was walking tightrope at that time. I don't know what will happen next. The price of materials is rising, the cost of labor is rising, and the uncertainty of policies, the enterprises do not know how to go next."

But that's all over, 2011.

Jiangsu Dong Du Textile Group

We passed away in a dangerous way.

Because, "at different times, we have adopted various corresponding measures."

In fact, many enterprises are already aware of the complex situation in 2012, and are actively preparing for the response. Although many entrepreneurs also say that their minds are not very clear, they worry about orders, fear that the pressure brought about by rising raw material prices and rising labor costs can be enough, especially for the vast number of small and medium-sized enterprises.

But instead of worrying about what is yet to come, it is better to do good things at the moment, "good opportunities to seize him, bad opportunities and adversities, and dig some excitement from them."

This sentence should be encouraged by all sectors of the industry.