Cotton Fell To &Nbsp, And Bears Continued To Hold.

Cotton futures rose on Thursday, helped by investor demand and rising peripheral markets, and continued worries over the economic outlook pushed up the rally. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) index May cotton contract CTK2 rose 0.20 cents, 87.34 cents per pound, the intraday fluctuation range was 87.07-88.26 cents.

Today, Zheng cotton 1209 contracts have gone down. Opened at 21280, the highest 21375, the lowest 21250, closed at 21275, compared with the previous trading day fell 65 yuan / ton or 0.30%. Cotton index decreased by 1106 days in hand, with a turnover of more than 80 thousand.

Goods in stock market China, March 15th cotton The price index (328) was 19577 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton. In March 14th, the imported cotton price index (FCIndex S) was 103 cents / pound, down 0.76 cents from yesterday, 1% yuan 16516 yuan / ton, and 16999 yuan / ton of discount tax.

According to the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand forecast in March, global cotton yield For the 26 million 920 thousand tonnes, a slight increase of 70 thousand tons was forecast compared with the previous month; the global cotton consumption forecast was 23 million 670 thousand tons, a decrease of 220 thousand tons compared with the previous month, and a terminal inventory of 13 million 570 thousand tons, up 340 thousand tons from last month. The increase in output this month is mainly due to the expected increase in production in Brazil and Pakistan, and consumption has been reduced due to the decline in China's consumer demand.

On the whole, supply and demand forecast did not change much in March, and still maintained a supply exceeding demand pattern. Compared with the US Department of agriculture's 2011/12 forecast for the first time, output has not changed much, but it is not correct. consumption The forecast value dropped and dropped from the initial 26 million tons to the current 23 million 670 thousand tons, a drop of nearly 9%, indicating that the global downstream consumption is weak. The end of the world inventory consumption ratio reached 57.32%, much higher than last year's 41.27%, reaching a record high. In the past 46 years, only 5 inventory consumption ratios exceeded 57%, of which 1984/85 and 1985/86 have been over 57% for two consecutive years, and the rest have dropped sharply in second years. Judging from the current survey, the cotton planting area in the global 2012/13 is expected to decrease by about 8%. Therefore, we believe that the global cotton supply and demand pattern may change in the coming year, easing the degree of easing.

Judging from the trend of the disk, today, Zheng cotton 1209 opened lower, after the opening of high and volatile, late diving, the position has been reduced. Low consumption is still the main reason for the weakening of cotton prices, and there is no sign of improvement in the short term. It is recommended that bears continue to hold.