Ye Tan: We Should Not Be Too Optimistic About Macroeconomic Data.

It will be announced in January 12th.

GDP rose and inflation declined, proving that the economic body is very healthy.

The initial forecast is that the GDP growth rate in December 2011 is 8.8%, and the CPI growth rate is 4.2%. This is a very wonderful data. It is achieved in the context of monetary tightening and real estate regulation. And the purchasing managers index of China logistics and purchasing Federation rebounded sharply in December, proving that the big manufacturing enterprises are getting warmer.

Moreover, the rebound in global commodity prices, including China, shows that investor confidence is showing signs of short-term stabilization.

The above data are in sharp contrast to the general pessimism observed by the industry. It seems that economic data ignore the grief of the industrial sector and ride on the dust.

A clear concern is the downward trend of exports.

In 2011, China's trade surplus dropped to a low level of 155 billion 140 million US dollars since 2005, a net decrease of 26 billion 370 million US dollars and a narrowing of 14.5% compared with the previous year. The proportion of the trade surplus in GDP has dropped from 3.1% in 2010 to around 2.3% in 2011, and will drop further to 2% in the future.

In the past few years, China's economy was in the export bonus period. In 2007 and 2008, the trade surplus reached a record high of 261 billion 800 million US dollars and 298 billion 100 million US dollars respectively, which is ten times that before China's accession to the WTO.

Now, the dividend of high export growth has disappeared and gone for ever.

Exports will depend on investment and consumption to boost GDP.

In view of the identity of local governments and big investors in various sectors, investment growth is within controllable limits.

It is expected that in December 2011, the total investment in urban fixed assets increased by 23.8% year on year, and the single month investment increased by 19% over the same period.

Although investment growth has declined, it is not easy to maintain such a growth rate under tight background.

The key problem is that the efficiency of investment is decreasing and the cost is increased. The investment in capital construction and protection is increasing. It proves that the liabilities of investors are higher and higher.

Consumption growth in December 2011 is expected to grow 16.7% year-on-year, down compared with the same period last year.

But China's consumption is not pessimistic. The data released by the Federation of logistics and purchasing in January 3rd showed that consumption rose sharply, and in December 2011 China was not.

The manufacturing business activity index was 56%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points over November.

Driven by seasonal demand, the consumer service industry dominated by retailing and catering industry has been strong, and has become the main driving force to boost the index of the month.

China's consumption growth has a strong driving force, but government consumption may replace residents' consumption. The luxury consumption of the high-income class is likely to replace the improved consumption of the middle income group.

In the first 11 months of 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first half, but we can not know the proportion of government consumption.

If the proportion of government consumption is too high, the greater the proportion of automobile consumption in the "three public" consumption, the lower the weight of China's household consumption.

Due to the large gap between the rich and the poor in China, the luxury consumption of high-income groups is facing the world, becoming the fastest growing country of luxury consumption, which is unfavorable for China's upgrading of industries.

The degree of wealth accumulation in China is out of line with the upgrading and upgrading of China's industries. China's high-income people are pursuing the same luxury goods as those of Japan and the United States. Low income rural areas are "living in Africa", and farmers in the central and western regions are self-sufficient, almost without having to participate in exchange and consumption.

In the next few years,

Some people say that China's economy has already landed on a soft landing.

China's economy has not yet landed. Real estate and debt are hanging in the air. How hard landing and soft landing? Therefore, these 5 years are the 5 crucial years in the process of China's economic pformation.

It is relatively clear that the CPI will remain at a relative high level of over 4% in the future. Investment will maintain a steady growth rate, consumption will increase and debt will be more and more. Coastal export oriented SMEs will enter the peak of collapse.

The effect of structural adjustment and whether the quality of GDP can rise depends on whether the government is determined to pursue market-oriented reforms, break monopoly and establish a fair market order.