Two Quarter Deposit Rate Or Continue To Reduce

At present, the slowdown in economic growth has led to concerns from all sectors, while the overall downward trend of inflation has provided room for pre fine-tuning of monetary policy.

Analysts believe that the central bank in the two quarter or continue to reduce the deposit reserve ratio, so as to guide the steady growth of money and credit, to ensure that the financial support for the real economy.

First,

The current economic growth is in decline.

Since the first quarter of last year, China's economic growth has dropped for four consecutive quarters.

1-2 months of this year, data show that profits of industrial enterprises have dropped sharply, real estate starts and sales are sluggish, and fixed asset investment growth has declined.

Despite the high PMI in March, taking into account the peak season of traditional economic activity in March, official PMI was actually lower than seasonal factors.

In the context of shrinking export orders and declining manufacturing boom, industrial production is expected to continue to slow down and affect the job market.

The overall economic growth rate continued to slow down.

Second, the demand for infrastructure investment credit is still very strong.

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, pointed out that we should adjust the fine tuning measures as soon as possible according to the situation, and make policy preparations at the same time, leaving corresponding policy space.

We should maintain an appropriate scale of investment, improve the quality and efficiency of investment, and ensure the capital demand for major projects under construction.

Analysts pointed out that in the future, macroeconomic policies and measures should be pushed forward on demand side, especially on infrastructure investment, while the net investment in the end of 2011 will be as high as 35 trillion yuan, which means that the investment inertia this year is very large.

Third, bank liquidity continued to slow down in the two quarter.

The liquidity of the banking system is under the pressure of continued downward pressure on foreign exchange.

Starting from the fourth quarter of 2011, foreign exchange accounted for a three month net decrease for the first time since 1998.

The process of strong foreign exchange growth for nearly ten years is almost at an end. This year, new foreign exchange reserves have been reduced or reduced to 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan or even lower.

The decline in the attractiveness of foreign investment, the expected reversal of the unilateral appreciation of RMB, the withdrawal of housing prices and the withdrawal of funds will continue to exist. It will not rule out the net outflow of single month capital and become a pump for bank liquidity.

Seasonal fluctuations in fiscal deposits.

The increase or decrease of fiscal deposits is mainly affected by fiscal revenue and expenditure.

According to the statistical data in recent years, the central bank's fiscal deposits tend to increase in the beginning and 4-8 months due to tax payment and so on, and the banking system will have the same scale liquidity outflow.

The increase in fiscal deposits in the two quarter will have a certain impact on the assets.

Judging from the trend of prices, although the prices of consumer goods such as vegetables and finished products have rebounded,