In The First Quarter, The Short-Term Export Trade Credit Risk Index Of Textile And Garment Industry Increased.

In April 25th, China Export and Credit Insurance Corp released the China's short term export trade credit risk index (ERI index) in the first quarter of 2012.

In the ten major industries of information technology, energy, medicine, chemical products and metal products, the first quarter of China

The ERI index showed a downward trend and the credit level was C.

The analysis shows that, in the first quarter of this year, the world economy is still not out of the doldrums. The developed economies, especially the European market, are greatly affected by debt crisis, fiscal tightening and high unemployment rate, and the demand for trade has shrunk.

In the first quarter of 2012, the ERI composite index dropped from 103.90 in the fourth quarter of last year to 102.29 points, indicating that China's short-term export trade credit risk increased slightly. This is consistent with the prediction made by China's credit insurance company when the ERI index was first released at the end of 2 this year.

According to the results of quantitative analysis, the China Export and Credit Insurance Corp classified credit risk level into 5 levels: A, B, C, D and E from low to high level.

Judging from the ERI index of major countries and regions in the first quarter, Japan, Malaysia, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates are class A; Indonesia, India, the United States, China, Taiwan, Egypt, Canada and South Africa are B; the United Kingdom, France, Ukraine, Holland, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Vietnam and Venezuela are C; Argentina, Russia and Brazil are D level, and the risk of default is relatively high; the credit level of Italy countries is E level, and the risk of default is very high.

Judging from the trend of major country and regional index changes, a total of 18 countries and regions ERI index decreased, Italy, France, Vietnam, Holland, Canada, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Spain fell a lot.

The ERI index of 8 countries and regions in Ukraine, India, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Indonesia increased, with Ukraine and India rising a lot.

From the first quarter of the main industry ERI index results, the information technology industry, the energy industry and the pharmaceutical industry risk is smaller, a level; chemical industry, metal products industry, machinery products industry, household appliances, audio-visual industry, food and beverage tobacco industry risk is centered, B level; furniture, textile and garment industry, electrical and electronic components industry risk is higher C level.

From main industries

In terms of the trend of change, the ERI index of furniture, textile and garment industry and electrical and electronic components industry decreased significantly, and the index of food, beverage, tobacco and chemical products increased.

Combined with the current global economic situation and international trade situation, China

Insurance companies suggest that exporters should pay attention to countries such as Spain, France and Britain, which are in debt crisis. At the same time, they should also pay attention to the impact of the upheaval in the Middle East on Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries.

Argentina and Vietnam are also not optimistic about emerging markets.

The index of Russia and Canada is expected to rise.

In terms of industry, it is expected that the state of credit risk in the electrical and electronic components industry will continue for some time, and the furniture, textile and garment industry will probably improve in the second half of the year.