Zhu Beina, President Of China Cotton Textile Industry Association: Situation Analysis Of 2012 Cotton Textile Industry

Chinese

It ranks first in the world and occupies half of the world.

In 2011, the yarn output of China increased steadily. The experts in the front mentioned the data from the National Bureau of statistics. I would like to talk about a survey done by the cotton textile industry association.

Good morning, everyone, old and new friends.

I am very grateful to the organizers for inviting me to make a speech on behalf of the textile industry. I want to talk about the basic situation of China's cotton textile industry, mainly from the aspects of production, trade, price, production and marketing, supply and demand, problems and development directions.

In recent days, we have all recognized that China's textile production ranks first in the world, occupying half of the world.

In 2011, the yarn output of China increased steadily. The experts in the front mentioned the data from the National Bureau of statistics. I would like to talk about a survey done by the cotton textile industry association.

What we investigated in 2012 was a slight decrease in output.

In 2011, the cotton textile association made extensive research in the whole country, and the output of our yarn was 20 million 500 thousand tons.

In the 1-4 month of this year, according to our survey, our yarn production decreased by 3%. If the situation does not change in the second half of this year, the yarn output will not reach 20 million tons this year.

Second I want to talk about trade.

In 2011, the contribution of China's textile industry to the import and export trade was 7.6%. Without the contribution of textiles, the whole country would be in deficit.

In 2011, the export volume of cotton textiles decreased by 11 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In 2012 1-3, the cumulative amount of cotton textiles increased by 23 percentage points year-on-year, representing a negative growth.

Let me repeat the quantity.

2011 cotton yarn,

The number of cotton bedding and textile garments decreased year-on-year.

In the first quarter of 2011, the export situation deteriorated further than that in 2011. Customs data showed that the export of cotton garments in the first quarter of 2011 dropped by 2 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which is the export market situation.

International demand continues to slump, and China's international market share has slipped.

Since the second half of 2011, India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other countries have taken advantage of the cheap advantage to seize our market share in the United States.

In 2011, the number of imported cotton fabrics in the United States decreased by 50% from China, while that of Southeast Asian countries accounted for 54% of China's exports. In 2011 1-3, the cumulative export volume of China's cotton textile market grew faster than that in 2011. In addition to the main markets in the table, Turkey, Taiwan and Macao had two digit negative growth.

Vietnam's textile exports increased by 16% and 23% respectively in the US and Japan market this year. Japan's imports of cotton garments from Vietnam and Bangladesh increased by 4 percentage points, and Korea increased by 5 percentage points.

The import situation of cotton yarn was introduced. The situation of cotton price difference at home and abroad was very severe in 2011. In December, the price difference reached the maximum price of 4000 yuan per ton. In March this year, the average price difference was over 3600 yuan, and the quantity of imported cotton yarn reached the highest level in history in the single month, reaching 124 thousand tons.

Domestic and foreign cotton price difference is the direct cause of the increase in the number of imported cotton yarn, of which 1-3 months from India imports increased by more than 50% over the same period.

If we import at such a speed, we can see from this table that the total import volume increased by 32% in the 1-3 months of this year.

Since the beginning of 2011, the total import volume has increased by about 10% over the same period. At this rate of growth, do we think that the cotton we use will be reduced? We think it will be reduced, and the yarn output will not increase because of the large import of yarn.

We hope that cotton prices will be stable and we do not want to see a decline in cotton prices, because the price of cotton will drop, and the downstream will not dare to take orders. The market will not be active, and the confidence of operators and producers will be suppressed.

This is the export situation of cotton fabrics. The cumulative negative year-on-year growth lasted for one year. In 2011, the total export volume of cotton fabrics decreased by 13% over the same period last year, and the total export volume in 2011 decreased by 2.6% over the same period last year.

This is the price of raw material market. We made a cotton plant.

In contrast, there are several situations, one is the price difference between domestic cotton price and international cotton price, and another is the fluctuation of domestic polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber, because of the price factor, textile enterprises use chemical fiber short fiber quantity to increase.

This is the price situation of the gauze Market, from which we can see that the profit margins of textile enterprises are further compressed.

This is the downward trend of prices. From here, we can see that the price of our yarns is not accepted by the downstream, so the profit margins are dropping.

From the basic situation of our investigation, cotton textile enterprises have two production and marketing, large enterprises start relatively well, small and medium-sized enterprises have limited production and shutdowns, and raw material inventory is basically within a month, gauze inventory pressure is relatively large, the cotton price of inventory is about 21000 tons, and the current price is 19000 yuan.

This is the map of raw material inventory. From the top left corner, we can see that the inventory of imported cotton is the same as that of last year, but now we use imported cotton more.

The following figure shows that although the growth of cotton has increased substantially over the past year, there has been no change in the reduction of raw material inventory, indicating that the proportion of imported cotton is expanding.

The lower right corner is a downward line, indicating the overall downward trend of raw material inventory. By March 2012, we had a year-on-year decrease of 23%.

In addition to imported cotton, other raw materials decreased year-on-year, other raw materials include both cotton and chemical fiber staple.

The reason for the decrease in raw material inventory is due to the lack of orders for downstream demand, and the cautious attitude of the enterprises to the market outlook, and of course, capital.

The upper right corner is the same as the chemical fiber staple.

Yarn inventory continued to grow year by year, and cloth inventory can be seen upward trend, which is our comparison of raw materials and product inventory, raw material inventory is down.

Gauze inventory is rising. The main characteristics of production and marketing are sluggish downstream demand, sluggish sales of gauze Market and large inventory pressure.

The purchase of cotton is bought and used, of which import cotton use and demand increase.

The proportion of non cotton fibers such as chemical fiber increased.

Cotton supply and demand situation: in the past five years, the annual cotton consumption is about ten million tons. There are many uncertainties in the future cotton market, which are determined by demand and policy.

Just now, chairman Gao Fang and ray Butler have talked about the balance between supply and demand of cotton.

From the current situation, in any case, in order to maintain the international competitiveness of China's textile industry, we do not want the price of storage to be higher than the price of purchasing and storing.

Yesterday, President Yang also said that the market was not acceptable. The main problem is that the price of cotton and cotton at home and abroad is far too different, and the competitiveness of the industry has dropped. The other is that demand is still weak, the market is not booming, and the cost is rising rapidly.

Although we have many problems, we believe that China's textile industry will continue to develop. Yesterday, the international cotton association of the United States also talked about the demand for China's textile and garment market will continue to rise. I strongly agree with that.

China still has comparative advantages, one of which is that China has a relatively complete industrial chain. This is our great advantage. We are the largest cotton producing country. Our spinning, weaving, home textile, printing and dyeing, clothing have a very complete industrial chain.

Second, China is a large market with a population of 1 billion 400 million, the living standard of the people is improving, the level of consumption is gradually improving, and the per capita consumption of fiber will also gradually improve.

Third. Recently we went to Southeast Asia to investigate. Compared with Chinese employees, the quality is very high and the production efficiency is very high. Therefore, we are very optimistic about the development of China's textile market.

From the perspective of development, the demand for cotton is still very large, and the current difficulties are temporary.

We also need to increase non cotton fiber, cotton, polyester staple and viscose staple fiber.

The second is to adjust the product mix and increase the added value of the product.

Third, we need to rely on domestic demand, maintain growth, and further accelerate industrial restructuring.

It will be pferred to other countries to accelerate industrial pformation and upgrading.

Let me give you an example. For a while, we held a docking meeting with the home textile industry to stimulate the market and promote consumption.

From the perspective of China's home textile market, we propose to maintain our steady growth, domestic demand or our initiative.

For example, home textiles, in addition to education, the size of newborns, health care, housing, population growth, economic growth, increased household income, and the construction of homes for the elderly and nursing homes will use large quantities of home textiles. Home textile products will use cotton products to a large extent, so we believe that China's textile industry will develop healthily and steadily.

I introduced the basic situation of China's cotton textile industry in the front. At the end of the meeting, I would like to introduce China's textile employment situation: about 22 million of the employed population, which accounts for about 7% of China's manufacturing industry, and 80% or 17 million of our employed population are our rural workers. These are our livelihood industries, so we have to protect them.

Finally, I also have such an idea, I hope you all support my point of view, I think cotton textile is good, we cotton processing will be good, cotton farmers will also be good, I hope you will support our development, thank you!