Foreign Trade Is Hard To Do. Steady Growth Still Depends On Investment.

In the first half, GDP grew by 7.4%, solid investment increased by 10.1%.

Even if the economy has recovered steadily, Guangdong The downward pressure on the economy has not yet been fundamentally alleviated.

On the 11 day, the Guangdong provincial government held an analysis of the first half of the province's economic situation. It is estimated that in the first half of this year, the province's GDP reached 26659 billion yuan, up 7.4% from the same period last year, although it increased 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, but it was only 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2009, which is a new low in recent years.

"Now in a stable and low operation stage, we should not be overly optimistic about the rebound." Professor Chen Hongyu, former Vice Chancellor of the Guangdong provincial government counselor and Guangdong provincial Party school, told reporters that the factors such as economic restructuring and international market recovery have not yet appeared. The measures to ease the difficulties of enterprises are not in place, and the economy is still at a low stage of steady operation.

　　 Foreign trade is hard to do.

Zhu Xiaodan, governor of Guangdong Province, admitted that the downward pressure on Guangdong's economy has exceeded the expectation of the beginning of this year. The growth rate of GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, fiscal revenue and so on is lower than the annual expected development target, which is also lower than the national average level.

He pointed out that this is essentially a superimposed reflection of long-term accumulated structural contradictions and cyclical factors of economic fluctuations, which makes Guangdong face "double pressure" of steady growth and structural adjustment. Although Guangdong's economy is showing signs of slowing down and stabilizing, the downward pressure in the second half of this year has not yet been fundamentally alleviated, and the difficulties and risks facing the economic operation can not be underestimated.

Guangdong's foreign trade market directly affects the economic trend of the province. Data show that in the first half of this year, Guangdong's foreign trade exports amounted to 218 billion 520 million US dollars, up 6.9% over the same period last year, 2.3 percentage points lower than the national level.

Alibaba's Shenzhen Datong enterprise clothing Limited company recently issued the Pearl River Delta small and medium enterprises foreign trade index report, the first half of the Pearl River Delta foreign trade enterprises orders slowly picked up, but because of the international economic situation is complex and changeable, the order of foreign trade enterprises fluctuate drastically. In June alone, the number of enterprises whose orders were less than last month increased by 7%, and the number of enterprises whose orders were greatly reduced increased by 4%.

"Our order is OK, but the fixed production cost in Guangdong is very high, so many orders are hard to make money or even lose money." Dongguan Bei Jia footwear industry Wang Wei, chairman of the board, told reporters that when the chamber of Commerce held a meeting, there were still some orders, but because the consumption level in Europe and the United States was not going to go up, the price of products could not go up, and the profit margins were very low.

Guangdong Provincial People's Congress, Dongguan Xingfeng Woollen Textiles Li Defeng, chairman of the limited company, said that orders for this year were very unsatisfactory, which fell by more than 20% compared with last year.

"This year, many private enterprises' profit levels have fallen a lot over the past years, which is mainly related to sales volume. The main difficulty of enterprises is too much inventory and no profit from sales." Qiu Yuhua, executive vice president of the Guangzhou municipal private enterprise association and general manager of Huaan Da Industrial Company, Guangzhou, said that the increase of inventory costs, including fixed costs of labor costs, has led to difficulties for enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises. The government has also introduced some administrative fee reduction policies, but efforts are still not enough.

Under difficult circumstances, many enterprises choose to "switch careers". "Many business owners, especially those who started factories in the 80s and 90s of last century, have not done much in manufacturing, and the next generation will not be willing to take over." Wang Wei said.

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Under such circumstances, Guangdong enterprises should take the initiative in foreign trade export. Reporters recently interviewed in Moscow found that many local customers reflected the good quality of Guangdong products, but they did not pay much attention to the Russian market. "They sat at the door waiting for us to come home rather than take the initiative to enter the Russian market."

"Guangdong's export market is mainly the United States, the European Union and Southeast Asia." Professor Xiao Yaofei, deputy director of the international economic and Trade Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said that the next step is to open up new market economies in Guangdong. Data show that in the first half of this year, Guangdong's exports to emerging markets were 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the whole province.

　 Steady growth still depends on investment

"It is impossible to rely on enterprises to squeeze costs to ensure growth." Chen Hongyu said that foreign trade exports were blocked and expanding domestic demand also needed a long-term process. Under such circumstances, expanding investment has become an important choice for steady economic growth.

Data show that Guangdong fixed assets investment in the first half of 769 billion 751 million yuan, an increase of 10.1% over the same period, not only the growth rate is lower than the national average, and the total investment is also far from Jiangsu, second place. Jiangsu Bureau of statistics data show that in the first 5 months, Jiangsu fixed assets investment completed 1 trillion and 197 billion 453 million yuan, an increase of 20.6% over the same period last year.

Chen Hongyu pointed out that Guangdong's investment is not related to industrial structure and infrastructure. Guangdong's investment in ports and highways has been unable to compare with other provinces in recent years. In addition, Guangdong has formed an industrial structure dominated by textile and light industries for many years, and there are few heavy energy projects such as coal and crude oil.

The analysis of 11 days will put forward that we should try our best to reverse the continued decline of investment as the most important part of expanding domestic demand steadily. On the same day, the Guangdong provincial government held the work conference on the comprehensive land development along the Pearl River Delta Intercity Rail Transit. Zhu Xiaodan asked the first batch of 6 pilot sites to carry out the comprehensive development of TOD (public transport oriented). The development mode has yet to be determined in July. It is clear that the construction progress has been made clear, and the schedule for the construction of the project will be reported in August.

By the end of May, the Guangdong adjustment accelerated the progress of 18 major projects, including major infrastructure projects such as the urban rail of the Pearl River Delta, the Guangzhou metro, the Xiamen Shenzhen railway and the Baiyun Airport expansion. After May, a number of major projects in Guangdong speeded up.

To speed up project construction, financial support is also very important. In July 5th, the Guangdong provincial development and Reform Commission held a symposium on Financing key provincial projects. The people's Bank of China Guangzhou branch, Guangdong banking regulatory bureau and relevant financial institutions attended the meeting.

At the first China (Guangzhou) International Financial Trade Fair in June, about 10 projects totaling about 50 billion yuan, including the amount of strategic cooperation agreement, will be invested in some local financing platforms and a number of infrastructure projects in the 30 docking projects announced on that day.

Chen Hongyu pointed out that capital is a key to investment, and there is a large number of private capital in Guangdong unable to find a way out for investment. "We are guarding Jinshan and calling poor." He believes that how to guide private capital into the investment field, especially in the monopolized areas dominated by state-owned enterprises, needs the government's active support and guidance to create a good platform for entry.