Climate Affects Cotton Prices In India For The First Time In Three Years.

Because Inventory exhaustion And domestic monsoon rains will continue to soar in India.

India officials and industry insiders say India is the world's second largest supplier of cotton and India for three years. Cotton price First exceeded the global price level, causing overseas buyers to rush to buy India cotton, the volume of shipments is high, and the arrival volume of cotton is lower than expected. Therefore, India stocks are exhausted.

Cotton prices in India are generally 88 cents / pound CNF, about 14% higher than that of African cotton, 10% higher than that of the United States cotton in the world's largest cotton exporters, and the US cotton futures in December closed at 72.43 cents / pound on Tuesday, reflecting the moderate trend of global cotton prices.

Cotton futures in the US fell 67% from 2.197 cents / pound in March last year, as output increased and demand for textile factories dropped sharply due to sluggish economic growth. According to S & P's GSCI spot index, cotton has become the 24 largest commodity in the past year.

In stark contrast, because of the decrease in monsoon rainfall, people are more worried about the reduction of cotton production from October 1st, so the domestic cotton prices in India are expected to continue to rise in the next few days. The largest cotton producing area in India, Saurashtra Tel and kaki, in Gujarat, are 72% of the rainfall in the past year, and Maharashtra, the second largest producing area, has also experienced drought.

Agriculture minister Ashish Bahuguna said last week that cotton production could be hit if two areas in Gujarat did not rain well this month, although Maharashtra is doing better.

Cotton planting progress is 7% behind the average progress. As of July 20th, the planting area was 8 million 370 thousand hectares. After the advent of seasonal rainfall, summer planting began only in June.

Worried Spin The factory has started importing cotton to prepare for the shortage of cotton in the domestic market, which was seen only about 10 years ago when India imported BT cotton.

A senior trade official said that in 2011-12 years, cotton imports in India were expected to reach 1 million 500 thousand packages, a 9 year high. Most imports were expected to come from African countries, including Tanzania. So far, exports of about 13 million bales of cotton have reached a new high in the past 2011-12 years. Low quality cotton is also available at home, but higher grade cotton has been exported earlier this year, so many textile mills are stepping up their imports.

Cotton supply in the domestic market has also decreased, because cotton picking in all regions has ended. The arrival volume is 33 million 800 thousand packs, which means that the cotton consulting company operated by the state predicts that the output of 34 million 700 thousand packages will be 2011-12 years and that the Ministry of agriculture forecasts that the output of the 35 million 200 thousand packages will be all wrong.

Although India usually buys some high-grade cotton varieties from abroad, mainly from Egypt and the United States, but this year the textile mill will purchase all varieties.

India has imported 1 million bales of cotton, and Cotton Advisory Committee expects to import 600 thousand bales in 2011-12 years. India imported 500 thousand bales last year.

Everyone is waiting for a clearer monsoon rainfall so that we can have an idea of cotton output next year. In addition, people worry that due to the delayed arrival of the monsoon, the sowing time of cotton will be delayed accordingly, so the picking time may also be delayed. Rainfall below normal may affect yield per unit area. Up to now, the prospect of yield per unit area is not very good.

Another industry executive said that if the picking time was later than the usual late September, domestic prices would soar, because then it would be difficult for domestic cotton stocks to be available.