Cotton City Is At A Critical Stage And Can Not Be Separated From The Government'S Reasonable Regulation.

At present, the domestic

The market is at the important time node of new Chen docking. Under the current market situation, the selection of regulation policy should be careful not to solve the structural contradiction in a holistic way.

In the case of plant reduction, the climate change during the critical period of cotton growth is often a shock variable, which is also the case in previous years.

At present, the domestic cotton market is at the important time node of new Chen docking. Under the current market situation,

It should be noted that the structural contradictions can not be solved in a global way.

Analysis conclusion

A comprehensive analysis shows that the cotton price fall cycle, which has lasted for 16 months, is expected to end.

When we are prudent, we need to see the stability of our national reserves, and we need to see that China and the world have higher inventory consumption than high schools.

When we are optimistic, we should also see the two-way nature of national reserves. But this double-edged sword should not be scabbard when the price of cotton is high and low. It should not use the overall approach to structural contradictions. It should not be able to suppress the competitiveness of China's textile industry.

That is to say, we can not see that the "reserve" of national reserves ignores the supply and demand problem, but that requires another space time, another price and another prerequisite for supply and demand.

Direction and power of policy

First, direct influence will soon play its part.

The price target of the temporary purchase and storage policy is 20400 yuan / ton, and the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan issued by the end of February is essentially a takeover offer, which is a pre purchase offer issued to cotton growers before cotton planting.

The Chongqing conference is reconfirmed. The Ji'nan conference is a reaffirmation.

Second, "dumping" or "matching"? Recently, the market rumors that the state will throw away the storage and issue quotas, and confirmed by relevant parties that there is no such plan at present.

However, from the point of view of the problem, there will be no contradiction between supply and demand in the alternation period.

There are three ways to solve this problem.

1. do nothing.

Two months after the new cotton docking period, the supply of cotton was tight and the price rose.

The cost of domestic textile industry is rising, the pressure continues to increase, and the prognosis is poor.

2. throw store.

Increasing domestic spot supply actually increased global spot supply.

Push back: cotton filling and dumping will cause domestic cotton prices to fall. Cotton prices will not only fall faster and deeper, but will also be more unfavorable for domestic textile enterprises, and will not meet the principle of avoiding disadvantages.

The current market background is the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic industry and commerce. It is impossible for us to tackle the domestic contradictions in a global way.

3. matching.

It can be seen that if the macro Department considers it necessary to ease, "matching" is an option.

Increasing quota does not increase global spot supply, but it can solve internal and external structural contradictions.

This policy option is an excellent option both theoretically and effectively.

Then will this increase in structural behavior suppress cotton prices?

The problem depends on two variables, one is the global commercial inventory, the other is the quantity allocation, and the core variable is the global commercial inventory.

And global business inventories will be changed when they are injected with this shock variable.

Under the premise of high global commercial inventories, this change will keep domestic and foreign cotton prices relatively stable during the quota use period.

Under the premise of low global commercial inventories, this change will develop in favor of China's textile industry, that is, the rapid rise of outer cotton, the reduction of internal and external spreads, and close proximity to the target price of new cotton temporary purchase and storage.

In essence, dumping and matching is actually the same thing. If the "attachment and endorsement" of the reserve is added to the country's imports.

In the final analysis, the national policy orientation should not and will not increase the supply of this global approach to solve the structural problems of cotton both inside and outside.

Third, we believe that the rationality of the two temporary purchase and storage price is reasonable.

There are three reasons: first, China is a big developing country and still in the track of rapid development. During this period, economic growth, wage increase, cost push and reasonable price rise are endogenous driving forces, so it is inevitable and trend.

Two, financial reform is advancing rapidly, and RMB internationalization is an irreversible process and strategic direction. During this period, exchange rate movements are more normal.

These two points decide that the shift of cotton pricing basis is reasonable.

Three is the comparative value of the labor force, combining with the characteristics of cotton production, the price of the storage and storage must be able to protect the interests of the cotton farmers.

Four, according to the experience, the price ratio of 1:8's grain and cotton is reasonable.

In addition, we can clearly see that this policy is simply an offer, a cotton lint contract issued to cotton growers as a link, and an indefinite and irrevocable long-term offer.

On the premise of cotton growers' response, they become potential long-term contracts.

Is the forward contract not the predecessor of the futures contract? Since the purpose of introducing cotton futures is to serve the industrial economy, why can't we solve the problem of the market by market?

1. domestic industrial and commercial stocks are below demand.

Cotton information network June business inventory survey shows that as of the end of June, the national commercial inventory of 1 million 730 thousand tons, of which the mainland commercial inventory of 1 million 330 thousand tons, excluding port imports of cotton, the mainland can supply real estate cotton is not much.

Other statistics show that since June, domestic and foreign market cotton prices continue to decline, some domestic textile enterprises began to replenish cotton stocks, ending the continuous decline of cotton inventories.

Futures warehouse receipts fell from the peak of 140 thousand tons in mid May to the current 100 thousand tons.

The 2. peak in the national reserve.

The annual cotton storage capacity of the 2011/2012 cotton that constitutes the national reserve is 3 million 130 thousand tons (which does not include the bottom of the previous year and the acquisition of cotton for the current year), occupying 22% of the total inventory of USDA 14 million 520 thousand at the end of the world, accounting for 53% of the 5 million 950 thousand tons of domestic stock at the end of the year.

This is a figure with the right to speak.

3. the new cotton planting in the northern hemisphere has declined.

This year, the reduction of cotton planting area in China, the United States and Pakistan in the northern hemisphere is a foregone conclusion.

The latest survey results of the national cotton market monitoring system show that in 2012, the actual sowing area of cotton in China was 71 million 787 thousand mu, a decrease of 7 million 631 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 9.6%.

The actual coverage area released by the US Department of agriculture in June 29th showed that in 2012, the US cotton sown area was 76 million 758 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% over the same period last year.

By June 21st, the area of new flowers planted in India had fallen by 14.6% compared with the same period last year.

Due to the shortage of water resources in Pakistan, the new cotton planting area decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year.

4. growth and entry will determine the critical period of production and quality.

At present, the new cotton in the northern hemisphere generally enters the bud stage and the fruit setting stage. The planting rate of new flowers in India is greatly reduced compared with that of the previous year. Drought has gradually become a major problem that plagued cotton farmers.

Before the United States cotton and India cotton were plagued by drought weather, recently, the three major cotton areas in China encountered different degrees of severe convective weather. Xinjiang Awati suffered hail weather, and the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin encountered heavy rainfall.

In the case of plant reduction, the climate change during the critical period of cotton growth is often a shock variable, which is also the case in previous years.

Textile industry under pressure

By the end of July, it was another important time node to decide cotton price fluctuation and cotton industry development.

This node has 3 backgrounds: 1., the textile situation is still in the doldrums; the 2. year's temporary purchasing and storage policy is about to be implemented; 3., the growth of new cotton has entered a critical period, and the docking period of new cotton has arrived.

First, the cost of raw materials will decline in external competitiveness.

Despite the acquisition and storage of 3 million 130 thousand tons by the state of cotton this year, the domestic and foreign cotton prices have continued to run below the reserve price since October 2011.

During this period, the cotton price difference between inside and outside is at a high level (annual mean 5000/ tons), so the textile industry has been under the pressure of larger internal and external spreads.

Second, the main external demand target is the economic situation in Europe and the United States, one is the debt crisis is getting worse and worse, the other is the low recovery and weak recovery.

The pressure of China's textile export growth downward is still large.

Third, the cost is increasing.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the wage income of urban residents increased by 13% in nominal terms compared with that in the first half of the year, and the average monthly income of migrant workers increased by 14.9% over the same period last year.

In addition, the high interest rate caused by tight funds is a drag on the textile industry under pressure.

Capital tension not only increased the cost, but also directly inhibited the normal stock of textile enterprises, and weakened the competitiveness of the industrial chain.

This is also one of the reasons for the downward spiral of cotton prices in the early and middle years.

It can be said that the pressure and duration of textile industry is far greater than that of the subprime crisis in 2008.