Clothing "Dark Horse" Found In The Special China Daily Increased By 46% Mystery

　　 Garment industry The impact of the downturn on the listed companies has gradually emerged. In this year's 54 clothing companies, 5 companies increased slightly, 23 companies slightly increased, 6 companies slightly reduced, 4 companies pre reduced, 6 companies lost the first time, 9 companies continued losses and 1 companies turned around.

Public leisure Clothing brand For example, the era of high growth has gone forever, whether it is the leading enterprise of the United States (002269, stock bar) (002269, closing price 20.35 yuan), or Semir dress (002563, stock bar) (002563, closing price 22.59 yuan) (hereinafter referred to as Semir) are lingering at the gate of revenue billions.

However, as the industry dark horse search (002503, stock bar) (002503, closing price 24.81 yuan) in the market downturn when more attention. A few days ago, the company issued a semi annual report in 2012. Its revenue in the semi annual report in 2012 was 664 million yuan, an increase of 48.3% over the same period last year. Net profit was 95 million 880 thousand yuan, an increase of 46.48% over the previous year.

In contrast, Semir's performance forecast shows that net profit in the first half of this year will drop by 35%~45% compared with the same period last year, with a profit of 240 million ~2.8 billion yuan. How can we keep high growth in the overall slowdown of the industry? How long will this high growth remain?

Chinese newspaper is better than Semir.

Founded in Dongguan, in search of special brand, "tide frontline" brand quietly captured the blank market of the three or four line cities of the public leisure clothing. In the first and second tier markets of the national leading enterprises of the public casual wear, the United States and Semir are constantly being attacked by international brands. However, they constantly replicate the expansion models of the US and Semir. For the time being, extension expansion still seems to be a magic weapon for high growth of casual wear.

Guo Hai securities (000750, stock bar) analyst Liu Jinhu pointed out that the number of stores in the first half was about 1600, and the rate of extension was 8%. From the perspective of channel mode, franchising channels and self operated channels increased by 47.11% and 60.95% respectively over the same period last year. From the regional perspective, Southern China's regional growth is 110%, showing strong regional advantages in terms of quantity and quality.

According to the search report in search, in order to quickly seize the market, search in the first half of this year still increased the support of joining channels. According to the China Daily, the company can support franchisees to open large stores and open stores through a series of credit lines, decoration subsidies and other measures. The new franchised stores in 2012 require more than 200 square meters, and encourage the opening of multi storey shops, so that the number, area and quality of terminal stores can be improved steadily.

A senior clothing brand told the "daily economic news" reporter that "in the first half of this year, the high growth in search is actually a heavy investment in the channel, which can be shown from the financial data, the revenue of 664 million yuan, the profit is only 95 million 880 thousand yuan."

In search of the three or four line of urban channels, Semir's 2012 business strategy is still improving the efficiency of existing stores. This has provided opportunities for more horse racing.

Independent analyst Ma Gang told reporters that China's leisure apparel industry has a huge market, but the competition is fierce. At present, the market size is around 500 billion yuan, among which the international brands represented by ZARA, H&M and UNIQLO are mainly attacking the domestic first-line market. Brand positioning, product design, supply chain system, store management and so on are far ahead of domestic brands. While the US and Semir both compete directly in the first and second tier cities, the search for special brands has spread the front line of its parity brand to the three or four tier cities.

"In the first and second tier market rent increase and pressure surge, the three or four line market rent has gone up, but the relative pressure is not big. The proportion of rent is one of the core elements that restrict the profitability of franchisees. A brokerage analyst who declined to be named said.

Previously, the market share of the leisure industry was only 0.2%, due to the beginning of the search. It did not attract the attention of the US and Semir. However, in recent years, the growth rate of 50%~70% on the basis of a smaller base has slowed down this year. By contrast, the growth rate of search special has far exceeded that of Semir. Semir apparel announced in its performance forecast that net profit in the first half of this year will drop by 35%~45% compared with the same period last year, with a profit of 240 million ~2.8 billion yuan.

The mystery of the high growth of the three line brand

In the downturn of the overall industry, the "frontline front" of the three line brand can bring such rapid growth to sou?

Data show that the operating income in search of 2009~2011 was 379 million yuan, 633 million yuan and 1 billion 99 million 600 thousand yuan respectively, with net profit of 54 million 60 thousand yuan, 90 million 800 thousand yuan and 173 million yuan respectively. In 2007~2011, the compound growth rate of the company's revenue and net profit reached 76.5% and 94.9% respectively. In other words, the company only spent 4 years, sales revenue rose from 100 million yuan to about 1 billion 100 million yuan. In the first half of this year, the revenue of search special revenue was 664 million yuan, and the growth in the second half of this year was fixed at 50%~70%. It is expected to exceed 1 billion 600 million yuan in revenue throughout the year.

Behind the rapid growth of the search engine, it seems that the myth of the rapid growth of the three or four line cities has appeared again. Since 2012, under the background of macroeconomic downturn, according to the data of 50 key retail enterprises monitored by China Business Information Center in 1~2 months, the growth of retail sales and retail sales in three line cities were 10.8% and 4.5% respectively, while the first tier cities and second tier cities were 3.9%, -8.4%, 3.9% and -8.5% respectively.

Liu Hui, an analyst with Qun Yi securities, said: "at present, search is mainly engaged in the design and sales of the" front-line front "brand, product positioning youth casual wear, consumer groups are concentrated in 15~29 years old people, mainly in East China and Southern China's three or four line market. Although the brand power of the "tidal front" is not comparable to that of the US, Semir, and YISHION, the price of its products is about 100 yuan, which is lower than the average price of the United States by 15%~20%. In the past five years, the consumption capacity of the three or four tier cities has gradually increased.

Fangzheng securities (601901, stock bar) data show that in mainland China, when the number of leisure apparel enterprises is less than 3000, the channel growth rate can be maintained at more than 30%; when the number of channels is higher than 3000, the growth rate of single brand channel can only be maintained at around 20% or lower.

"We estimate that the capacity of the search company is about 17000. At present, there are about more than 1600 stores, and the number of stores is up to 3000. It is not difficult to add about 300 stores every year. In the next 2~3 years, the company can only rely on the extension of channels, which basically supports the company's high growth. Founder Securities analyst Zhang Baoping analysis said.

In addition, in the first half of the year, the revenue from direct sales and franchisees reached 54 million yuan and 610 million yuan respectively, representing an increase of 60.95% and 47.11% respectively over the first half year. However, the rapid growth of franchising channels has been vigilant. In April 25th this year, it searched for the delayed announcement of the construction of the investment and investment projects, postponed the construction of the marketing network and information construction project for a year to December 31, 2012, and postponed the construction period of the construction project of the over fund-raising investment project marketing network for one year to March 31, 2013. The reason for the delay is described as: "in 2011, the price of commercial real estate in China is relatively high, and its development trend has great uncertainty. In order to avoid investment risks arising from the fluctuation of rental and sale prices, the investment progress has been slowed down accordingly."

On the other hand, the support for franchised stores is increasing. The above unwilling to be named analysts pointed out to reporters that "under the pressure of the environment this year, the main problem is that the franchisee's financial strength is weak. The company encourages the franchisee to open a shop mainly through personal support from the chairman. Under the positive support policy of the company, there will be more orders in the autumn and winter orders, which is better than that in the spring and summer ordering meeting."

Extension expansion, aggressive inventory risk

Although the Chinese newspaper in search is more eye-catching in this year's clothing listed companies, it also brings some early warning signals.

"In particular, the income level of the middle and low income groups has increased rapidly, and the company's revenue growth has been increasing rapidly in recent years. But because of the overly aggressive expansion and high inventory, the company has a certain impact on the gross profit margin in the future." QE securities analyst Liu Hui pointed out.

The above anonymous analysts told reporters that in the first quarter of this year, gross profit margin fell by 4 percentage points to 30.7%, and the reason behind it was that it had thrown 36 million yuan of 2011 winter money to franchisees. In the past, he was too optimistic about the market judgement, and expected to open more direct stores. But in the second half of last year, various factors did not open the store, so there was an inventory of more than 36 million yuan. These goods were dealt with at a low price in the first quarter of this year. So the first quarter gross margin is relatively low.

Liu Hui, an analyst with Qun Yi securities, also said that due to the company's over optimistic sales expansion, the stock in 2011 increased by 1.4 times compared with that of the previous year, and the stock turnover time reached 123 days, which was 1.5 times that of Semir. In the first quarter of 2012, the company sold some of its off-season products to franchisees in the first quarter, resulting in a 4 percentage point decrease in gross profit margin. "Taking into account that the company's inventory is still at a high level of 390 million yuan, if the future inventory clearance, the company's gross margin may be more difficult to improve."

However, according to the latest China daily data, the turnover rate of special inventories decreased by 0.45 to 1.22 times / year. The inventory of the company was 373 million yuan, down 20 million yuan from the end of the first quarter, of which raw materials dropped by 11 million 890 thousand yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the stock of goods increased by 83 million 440 thousand yuan compared with the beginning of the year. "Raw material has declined, indicating that the increase in stock is not entirely due to stock, but whether the subsequent inventory commodities need to be effectively digested need further tracking." The anonymous analyst said.

Liu Hui, an analyst with Qun Yi securities, pointed out that "with the increase in store rents and labor costs, the willingness of Smith Barney and Semir to lower their stores, especially after a substantial increase in inventories, gradually realized the importance of improving efficiency. From the perspective of the two companies' business strategy in 2012, they mainly focus on fine management of stores.

From the point of view of management, it is basically the imitation of the barbaric growth mode of the United States and Semir. It relies on the rapid increase of franchisees and quickly grabs the market, and its innovation is not obvious. Although demand growth in the short term is increasing rapidly, the competitiveness is not strong enough. Once the US, Morima Innochi and second tier competition pressures are too large, they will sink to the three or four line.

"Fortunately, from Smith Barney As for Semir's 2012 business strategy, improving the efficiency of existing stores is still the key point. The three or four line market has yet to be put on the agenda. So nearly two to three years is still searching for special expansion. Under this expansion, this year is mainly concerned about the effect of the management enhancement and the quality of new stores.